THE AMBUSH

NFL Playoffs – Wild Card Round – Sunday Updates

I said in my article that I would have some updates for Sunday because Saturday was mostly a go light day in terms of how heavy your lineup was.  Overall there really wasn’t a single play that I think broke the entire slate yesterday and if you had low exposure to the games on Saturday then I’d honestly say just leave what you have for the most part, but let’s break down the rough ownership from yesterday and talk through some decisions for any pivots on Sunday.

Keep in mind in DFS, that there’s always too much emphasis in my mind put on first place.  Just cashing is not a bad thing and so we don’t have to be perfect.  I am basing the ownership information below off a 277 person $100 Single Entry on DraftKings.  The right tournament size you should have an entry in (< 1k ppl, higher $ entry)…

Highest Owned Saturday Players

Devin Singletary – 40% – 19.4 points … He was projected to be the highest owned player and was a fade for me.  Up until that final big catch and run I was pretty good about the fade, but that put him into a spot where he really raised the floor for those who played him.

Sony Michel – 29% – 9 points

John Brown – 29% – 13 points … This is the biggest dagger from yesterday in my mind.  Yes, he had a TD pass but I was projecting him to have a bigger game near 20 fantasy points.  No WR did anything of serious note yesterday, but there’s plenty today who could.  If you faded John Brown for Sunday players congrats because he didn’t burn you.

James White – 24% – 11 points … The winner between Michel and White is White by a narrow margin.  I wanted more from White but this will do.

Kenny Stills – 28% – 8.6 points … If you have Stills & Brown.  Sorry.  You’re in a world of hurt and you should NOT be playing Mike Thomas or Alvin Kamara today.

Corey Davis – 24% – 0 points … If you played Corey Davis you should read a new article for advice.

Texans Defense – 22% – 4 points

Patriots Defense – 18% – 4 points

Darren Fells – 21% – 7 points

Titans Defense – 18% – 14 points

Who scored a lot at lower ownership

Derrick Henry – 11% – 30.4 points … I mean, we really shouldn’t be shocked.  But do not assume No Henry, No Cash.  That is the furthest thing from the truth right now.  Sure, the perfect lineup or top lineup in general will have him, but not all lineups that have Henry will cash. 

DeShaun Watson – 8% – 29.38

Josh Allen – 12% – 27.36 … Allen and Watson were better than expected, with Allen getting that receiving TD and Watson getting the rushing TD.  They paid off.  I definitely can see QB’s today though getting into the 20’s and making these guys sweat.

Who Needs To Pivot?

Anyone with Corey Davis, Kenny Stills or two RB not named Derrick Henry in their lineup.

You shouldn’t be playing Mike Thomas, Alvin Kamara or D.K. Metcalf today.  Depending how many of the duds you had yesterday I would make that # of pivots off the big 3 chalk players today.  So 1 dud = 1 pivot, 2 duds = 2 pivots, 3 duds = 3 pivots, 4 duds = Put a new 2 game lineup in.

Should You Hedge your lineup if doing well with a 2 game lineup today?

No.  You let it ride.

What are the best pivots?

Latavius Murray in for Alvin Kamara … He won’t be nearly as highly owned and will even still catch a few passes.  The Vikings will have to get a great game from their LB and Safeties to help in the passing game and that could open up Murray to have a really good rushing game.

Tyler Lockett in for D.K. Metcalf … This is honestly the best pivot on the board if you can make the money work and going Murray over Kamara might be the pivot you need to make to fit it in.  Lockett and Metcalf are honestly 1a and 1b with the passing game for Seattle.

Miles Sanders in for Alvin Kamara

Dalvin Cook in for Alvin Kamara … This is the best ownership pivot on the board.  If you are very much looking to leap way up, this is the pivot.

Vikings in for Saints … Along with the Cook theme, going Cousins-Diggs-Thielen will give you the most leverage.  High risk.

My Main Lineups

On DraftKings I currently have

• Brees, Kamara, White, Metcalf, Brown, Ward, Cook, Murray, Saints

I don’t see myself needing to pivot much here to cash.   But if I did, it would be to the Wilson stack I mention below.

On FanDuel I currently have

• Brees, Kamara, White, Brown, Metcalf, Ward, Taysom, Thomas, Bills

I am taking a loss here right now because of White versus Singletary.  That decision has not paid off and so I’m gonna need some help in my other selections which are mostly chalky outside of Taysom Hill.  My best pivot is to get a Seattle stack in, which means fading Kamara or Thomas.

Sample pivot:   Wilson, Lockett, Goedert, Sanders in for Brees, Ward, Hill, Thomas … This puts me heavier on the lower owned game (SEA-PHI) and gives me the best shot to leap up to the top.  But I already know I have to pass lineups that have Henry, Singletary, Josh Allen and Tennessee Titans D. 

Can Wilson beat Allen?  Yes

Can Sanders beat Singletary?  Yes

Can Kamara beat Henry?  Tough

BOTTOM LINE.  SHOULD YOU TINKER?

In short, if it’s really tough for you to hit first place then you don’t need to get extremely creative and should play to just cash.  So look at the lineups around the cash line currently and ask yourself how much of a hole are you really in?  The answer is most likely that you don’t need to tinker at all.

Note that the picks below are slightly different from the 4 game AMBUSH because I factor in 2 game slate ownership.

BIRDS OF PREY PART II

One of my AMBUSH plays in the regular season was to stack the Seahawks and the Eagles.  Here we are meeting again with these two teams but on a two game slate there’s little reason to play if you’re gonna just go all in on the chalk game of the day between the Vikings and the Saints.

For me the Zach Ertz news is a smoke screen and Dallas Goedert is a lock play on the two game slate and I love going 2 TE with him and Jared Cook.  I also believe firmly that Miles Sanders is fine and will have a strong game for Philly.  The Seahawks however are MUCH more obvious where they have to get the production from.  It’s Wilson-Lockett-Metcalf or go VERY contrarian and plug in David Moore.

A LITTLE BOOM AND ZOOM

No team has been more of a RB focus team in the past 10 years than the New Orleans Saints.  They feature their RB when they are rolling along a ton and going with both Kamara AND Murray today is the best pivot off Michael Thomas.  Simply put, you are either IN with 80% of the field taking a 18 from Mike Thomas and trying to nail the rest of your lineup or you completely fade it to be different enough everywhere else.  The path to that is with the Saints RB getting the touchdowns and even doing it through the air today as Latavius Murray catches a 37 yard screen pass for the first touchdown of the game today.