Well I guess we are really going to do this. We are really going to put together all these thoughts and all these prognostications, use our MLB winnings or click on that promotional deposit link or maybe even spend all those CROWNS and FDP we have been saving up to play what is basically the equivalent of pre-season football minus all the backups. Look, we can just call it like it is and that’s what The Ambush is about. The games the first two weeks of the season are going to be a little bit like pre-season and that is okay. Not just with the lack of fans, but the lack of actual pre-season to work on tackling, adjust player rotations and in some cases new coaches getting used in general to the Head Coach aspect of game day. It’s not the same as an assistant coach and they missed out on that from the pre-season. This in no way means that the excitement of playing DFS, watching the games or the competition on the field is going to suffer to the point where it’s bad — not at all. What I am pointing out is that what you see and experience this weekend is likely to GREATLY change by Week 3 or Week 4. And yes, we will have a Week 3 and a Week 4 as scheduled because just as we all knew back in March when things went crazy in the Sports world – the NFL is a machine and that machine will always go on.

Next is a breakdown of what you are going to get from The Ambush every week.

The first major question that I know nobody is wondering right now — is it The Ambush or The AMBUSH? Great question and I appreciate you taking the time out of your busy day to ask me this question. The answer is that it is The Ambush unless I really want to emphasize it — in which case it’s THE AMBUSH B****. But no seriously, The Ambush is just fine and thank you for your dedication in that question which completely just consumed time that nobody has.

So what is The Ambush exactly?

The Ambush is not your typical NFL DFS article, much in the same way I write my MLB DFS Dongers Club I wanted to find a format which could convey my opinions for the NFL games but also give recommendations which you could use to build a lineup and have success along the way.

Every player which is recommended in The Ambush is someone that I would trust to use in a lineup in any contest unless I otherwise state such. I will not say things like “Safe for Cash” or “GPP Only”, these are horrible terms that nobody should be saying and I will argue this fact with anyone who disagrees simply because they’re not doing any service to the DFS player — which is you — by giving that kind of advice. If I recommend a player it is because I think they can provide value to your lineup in some shape or form. They might be that player who is going to score 30 points or they might be that min priced player who pops off for 5x. The bottom line measurement for me doing content is to not give BAD picks, and if I avoid giving BAD picks then I chances are we are all going to have profitable days.

I begin my NFL research at the beginning of the week. You know what it does not include? It doesn’t include analytics, it doesn’t include an optimizer, it doesn’t include projections. My first analysis is based off my instincts and what is terms “The Notes”. I do my notes typically Monday evenings, but no later than Tuesday morning every week and they help me set a baseline for how I feel each game is going to play from a game script perspective. From there, I will then let the week play out with all the blah blah blah articles and tweets and podcasts and betting picks and everything else that is just everyone passing the time from Sunday to Sunday. Then on Friday evenings, I sit down and I merge my notes into this article against what the rest of the DFS industry has created in their crazy little minds (i.e. ownership, overhyped players, bad fades, etc.) and come up with The Ambush plays for each week – which I use then to set my lineups on Saturday’s.

If an update on Sunday requires me to change something in my article I will make it — otherwise there’s no changes in my opinion from Saturday to Sunday because once I make up my mind I trust my instincts and I ride with it.

If you are someone who has come into this article looking for a quick pick and will not be here in week 3, leave now.

If you are someone who is here looking for that one low owned player that you think can win you the milli-maker. Goodbye.

Heck, if you are only playing the milli-maker, you won’t like what I have to say most weeks.

If you are the type of fantasy football fan who believes in yourself, believes in trusting the right people to help you learn and will stick with it week by week, then welcome in my friends. I have had high four figure to five figure weeks in NFL DFS every season and no I’m not talking about turning $6,000 into $10,000 and calling that a five figure hit. I believe in proper contest selection and I believe in playing good players that you believe in.

Enough of that for now though. I wanted to give a brief introduction so you know who you are reading and hopefully trusting. I will do an intro each week to my article which is mostly industry and “coaching” focused but I gotta make sure it doesn’t get too long so you can focus on the goods. Let’s get to those goods….

Here’s a recap of what this article covers

This article will cover plays that I am using on my MAIN lineup & what that is being entered into.
This article will cover plays that I am using on my SECOND tier lineups & what contests those are being entered into.
This article will cover plays that I am using on my THIRD tier lineups & what contests those are being entered into.
This article will cover my favorite weekly BETS for the weekend games.
This article will cover who I feel is chalk and how it should be addressed.
This article will cover all my NFL thoughts in one spot.

What are The Ambush plays? These are my plays that I feel warrant the most attention for a given week. It’s a mix of three types of players/teams each week. We’ll cover the stud you gotta have no matter what. We’ll cover the contrarian pivots. We’ll cover my favorite games/stacks of the week.

The first thing we must do each Week is understand the landscape of the slate and any injury or weather or miscellaneous information that we need to monitor from the time this article comes out (Saturday’s) until lock on Sunday at 1PM EST.

Injuries and Playing Time Concerns

I will factor in the major injuries into my recommendations and try to list only the injuries that could impact the recommendations within this article. If there is someone who you know is injured and isn’t listed here then I clearly don’t think it’s of any use to you and I would recommend you save that brain power for life’s larger questions like why do we still drive on a parkway and park on a driveway.

Mike Evans (Hamstring) … He will play, but it doesn’t matter because he’s constantly been shutdown by “His Daddy” Marshon Lattimore.
Kenny Golladay (Hamstring) … He is out. Everyone is rushing to Marvin Jones like he’s gonna cure cancer. Let’s temper expectations a little bit.
Jarvis Landry (Hip) … Now saying he will be limited which means I will just have him paired as noted below. Gut feeling is this is a smokescreen but something to monitor.

Weather Status

No issues as is the case of 16 of 17 NFL weeks.

Projected Ownership

No commentary here, this is strictly what the projected ownership looks like for this week. Trust me on this data. But one thing you need to remember is that Quarterback ownership rarely matters because the margin of difference on most Quarterbacks scores is minimal — it’s the easiest position to get different from the crowd and not have a disaster — but it’s also the position that is hardest to really separate yourself with a high score from lots of options. Is there one or two guys that do it? Yes. But rarely does ownership at QB kill you.

HIGH chalk plays are in BOLD

	QB	RB	WR	TE	“STACKS”
DK	Russell Wilson (SEA) – 17.66 % Lamar Jackson (BAL) – 16.10 % Matt Ryan (ATL) – 8.31 %	Christian McCaffrey (CAR) – 27.15 % Antonio Gibson (WAS) – 22.63 % Josh Jacobs (LV) – 18.79 %	DeSean Jackson (PHI) – 23.17 % Davante Adams (GB) – 14.48 % Terry McLaurin (WAS) – 13.90 %	Mark Andrews (BAL) – 9.66 % Zach Ertz (PHI) – 8.86 % George Kittle (SF) – 8.44 %	New England Patriots (NE) – 15.76 % Indianapolis Colts (IND) – 10.00 % New York Jets (NYJ) – 9.78 %
FD	Russell Wilson (SEA) – 17.14 % Lamar Jackson (BAL) – 16.15 % Matt Ryan (ATL) – 8.31 %	Christian McCaffrey (CAR) – 32.41 % Josh Jacobs (LV) – 19.54 % Austin Ekeler (LAC) – 18.53 %	Davante Adams (GB) – 23.08 % Tyler Lockett (SEA) – 20.95 % Michael Thomas (NO) – 19.81 %	Zach Ertz (PHI) – 14.80 % George Kittle (SF) – 14.61 % Mark Andrews (BAL) – 7.60 %	Indianapolis Colts (IND) – 15.13 % New England Patriots (NE) – 13.76 % Miami Dolphins (MIA) – 6.76 %
Thoughts	Nothing unusual here this week.	I understand why Gibson is there but really it’s not a good matchup for him.	Usual suspects, but Thomas being low is an indication of his price being high. He’s a fantastic DK play if these #’s hold true.	Not too heavy chalk here it seems. That’s good news.	I don’t think New England creeps up to extreme chalk levels and I am shocked the Chargers aren’t higher up here.

NFL Season Thoughts

Since it is Week 1 I think it’s time to point out what my quick opinions are on each division. This does not necessarily apply directly to week one but it would be very foolish to have a pre-season take and then not capitalize on it in the first 1-4 weeks of the season. In fact, do yourself a favor RIGHT NOW. Go find some pre-season prediction article, video, podcast who made a claim about a player for seasonal purposes or a team or maybe an over/under play.

Then go look at their DFS content this week and next week. If they aren’t riding that prediction the first four weeks of the season, even in a supposed “bad spot” then call them out. Point out that there’s zero spine in their body for making these bold claims and then not actually following through with it — because they have scammed you. This doesn’t mean just this week, it means over the full first month, that is when you capitalize on having an edge before the world adjusts. i.e. Lamar Jackson last year and Patrick Mahomes the year before. They were cheaper and dominated in Weeks 1-4.

Now, here’s my quick thoughts on the divisions

NFC East: The Redskins are better than people believe. The Cowboys are mediocre and the Giants will be entertaining to watch but not good. The … oh wait, they aren’t the Redskins anymore. Washington — and no, I am not calling them “Football Club” is my pick to win this division. Sleeper? Sure. Do I believe in Haskins? Heck no. Alex Smith to the rescue hopefully!
NFC North: Most boring division in football. No hot takes here other than the Vikings win the division and Packers miss playoffs.
NFC South: Falcons will win 3 divisional games somehow. Saints have the most depth, Bucs D is improved, O is weaker (yup!) and Panthers… Well, if you could buy stock in any of these teams for 5 years from now, it’s the Panthers.
NFC West: Loaded. Extremely hard to predict. No hot takes here. They’re all quality teams.
AFC East: Patriots either tank and go 3-13 or win division and then trade Cam in offseason.
AFC North: Browns, Ravens, Steelers. In that order. Kings of the AFC.
AFC South: Colts and man oh man the Jaguars are really bad. Really bad. Like, 0-16 bad.
AFC West: That Mahomes guy is good, no?

Unlike with Baseball, Hockey and College Football I tend to do more than one lineup in NFL. But I do not jump into MME by any stretch of the imagination as I am still in single entry tournaments and will have a ‘Main’ lineup that stretches across cash, single entry, 3 entry max and multi-entry tournaments. It’s the lineup where I build out what I view to be the best plays for the weekend and it has a good mix of my Ambush plays.

That said, the five Ambush plays you see weekly from me are usually spread out across three to five lineups. I prefer FanDuel because it’s only half point PPR, does not have stupid bonuses and the pricing is more balanced in my view. But the way I play multiple lineups is by rolling my second and third favorite lineups on different sites. This way I am still able to capitalize on the best tournaments (higher dollar with limited entries) with a single lineup but I get to capitalize on the aspect of spreading out my exposure to different spots. So when you see me reference something like “DK Metcalf everywhere” that means I’m rolling him on all the different sites. But when you see “I will have a lineup with X,Y,Z” that means it’s just a specific lineup that I am rolling that on. I share this to be transparent and also to hopefully help you balance how to play multiple sites for NFL.

And enjoy all the bad music puns this week. Wasn’t on purpose, it just happened.

DeKAYLIN WENT DOWN TO GEORGIA!

Ambush Play #1 – D.K. Metcalf over 100 yards and a touchdown

For a long time it was known that the Atlanta Falcons defense was weak against pass catching running backs. While that is still somewhat true, the real match-up when targeting Atlanta is a big physical Wide Receiver. Atlanta went out and got themselves a new CB in the draft in AJ Terrell but it makes no difference as they don’t have anyone with the size to cover DK Metcalf unless they opt to roll out Julio Jones on defense which would be really cool in a weird way to watch — I kid of course. Furthermore, the Falcons defense lacks any pass rush what-so-ever and they did nothing to improve upon this from a season ago. Russell Wilson should have all the time in the world this weekend when Seattle opts to air it out and while Lockett is a fine play on the other side, it’s Metcalf who is going to get into the endzone and prove that his late year surge in 2019 was no fluke.

DK Metcalf is our #1 receiver on all sites in Week One.

HOME AND REFRESHED

Ambush Play #2 – Stick with the Seattle-Atlanta game and enjoy Todd Gurley’s best game of 2020.

I am not extremely high on Todd Gurley suddenly having a resurgance this year with Atlanta. The largest reason beyond the obvious concern about his degenerative body is that the Falcons offensive line is lacking in the talent department yet again. They’ll have an extremely hard time rushing the ball most of the season but if ever there is a week to take the former Georgia Bulldog back in his old college grounds, it would be week one against a defense he definitely has not sucked against from his NFC West days. While with the LA Rams, Gurley compiled a 4.26 YPC average and 11 touchdowns over 9 games against the Seattle Defense. Furthermore, the Seahawks allowed the third most touchdowns on the ground in 2019 and with the addition of Jammal Adams I expect their secondary to once again be a hard team to beat over the top. There’s no reason for me to expect Gurley to come out and have another 150 yard type rushing day as the yards will still be limited due to himself being limited — but if you want a no doubt about it lock rushing TD this week, it would be Gurley and I expect as this game is high scoring for him to get multiple chances to rush two in and his price this week on both sites is exceptionally good for a home running back.

If there’s gonna be a time we can trust Gurley, it has to be this week against Seattle.

UNDER-DAWGS

Ambush Play #3 – This is the year the Browns finally shine.

I have zero affiliation with any of the AFC North teams, but I have had my finger on the pulse of this division for the last two seasons. In 2018 the whole world loved the Steelers and I ran away from them as their demise at the hands of LevBell and Antonio Brown was clear as day. In 2019 the whole world loved the Browns and I ran away from them as they clearly were too young and did not yet know how to win in the league despite having a ton of talent. Now in 2020, the whole world is once again riding the Ravens because all we can do is react to what we saw and not stop and think outside the box for a moment?

Go back one year ago today. You will find nothing but praise and hype around the Cleveland Browns and Baker this, OBJ that, Landry, Chubb, the defense! How does this team not win the AFC let alone the division!!! Now fast forward and virtually the SAME BROWNS TEAM isn’t even mentioned at all? Might I remind you that these same Cleveland Browns went into Baltimore last year and handed the Ravens one of their two losses on the season. It wasn’t just any loss, it was an epic beat down that the Browns put on the Ravens by running all over them. I know for certain that the Ravens remember this and will be more focused on the ground game this year, but what they cannot account for is the Baker Mayfield experience. Baker is still someone we should believe in as a Quarterback, and he is someone that I view as an exception to the second year Quarterback rule of thumb. He declined, but he will surge back up because I believe in him long term and I believe without a shadow of doubt that the Browns win the AFC North this season. That begins this weekend in Baltimore in what is a game I was LOCKED IN ON last season and will be on it again here this week.

Expect Jarvis Landry to have his usual high volume catch game and you have to love him as a CORE play on DraftKings with the full PPR.

UPDATE: Jarvis Landry is now coming out as saying he will be “managed” as he comes off off-season hip injury. There’s really been no indication of this being a problem before now, but obviously I am a little less bullish on him having a huge volume game if he’s only playing 50% of the snaps. Boost Odell as I still like the Browns.

COLT 45

Ambush Play #4 – The Colts will drop 40+ points this weekend in a rout of the worst team in football.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are bad. Oh my are they bad. They might not win a game the entire season from what I can tell. The have shredded their entire defense from their top tier just a few years ago and they have shredded any consistent veteran presence on offense as well. They are going to be an EPIC disaster starting in week one and yet nobody is talking about this? In fact, I am hearing folks try to hype up Gardner Minshew as a stack and … ok, just dont do that this week against the really good Colts defense. I do like the Jags WR, but, well, that’s all the nice things I have to say about Jacksonville.

Let’s get back on topic. The Indianapolis Colts baby. Philip Rivers, while certainly declining, still can sling it 50 times a game if he wants. He won’t need to do that here this week but I’m expecting this to mirror how teams fared against the lowly Dolphins early last season when basically the opponent would go down the field and score, then get the ball right back because the other teams offense (Jacksonville in this case) isn’t ready to compete and turns the ball over or has a quick 3 & out and then they get to go right down their throats and make it 14-0 before you can even get a second beer. This is going to be a blowout. The Colts should score at will the entire game and if you want to do a “STACK” then the type of stack should be 4 players from the Colts. QB, RB, WR, DEF would be my favorite pairing hear as they all should do well. The obvious challenge is which one and for me I am going to lean with some young talent this week.

Paris Campbell is likely to eventually take over the TY Hilton deep threat role for the Colts, but it’s Michael Pittman Jr. who I believe has all the talent in the world to shine with Rivers. A big WR who was unnoticed playing on the west coast in college, he is my sleeper WR from this game and I expect him to be that ‘Marquise Brown’ type week one diamond who everyone is rushing to claim off waivers in leagues where he went un-drafted. The RB situation is a tough one to pinpoint, but one can definitely see Jonathan Taylor getting in the box in a rout.

Whip out the Colt 45 and put the Jaguars out of their misery early…

TAKE IT EASY

Ambush Play #5 – Zero Philadelphia Eagles this week

I wrote above about how you should no doubt be looking to follow your predictions on the upcoming season in the first month. The reason is simple, now or never on you being accurate with those picks and for me I know that the general public is still underestimating the Redskins defense & the coaching changes they have made. Ron Rivera is a better head coach who will keep this team focused and in games. He brings with him a better offensive coordinator who should be able to manage longer drives for the Redskins and also keep their D from being on the field all game. So when we put all this together and throw in that the Eagles offensive line did suffer a big loss in the “pre-season”, we have ourselves an easy fade.

No Wentz, no Sanders, no D-Jax, no Ertz. No Eagles. Period. Not a little bit in this lineup, not maybe one guy here or there. Zero, none. Washington’s front four is exceptional as it should be with three former first round picks on it and we always see really bad teams from a year ago come out in week one and look more competent. The mental side of the game is huge and this Washington team could not have had lower confidence than they did last year. Expect them to play very well and completely shut down Philadelphia’s offense this week.

If you are extremely scared about fading everyones “lock” DeSean Jackson, factor this in. What is D-Jax good for? A long TD? So lets say he pops for another 50 yard touchdown and winds up with around 15 fantasy points this week. Good week, yes. Must have? No. So fading Jackson isn’t that you are fading someone expecting them to get a 3 or a 4, but it’s more fading them in a game we do not like for a lot of points knowing that there’s plenty other safer options who are all 10-20% less owned.

Leverage is thrown around WAAAY too much in DFS touting and there’s bad examples but in this case I have zero hesitation skipping over all of the Eagles this week.

RECAP OF AMBUSH PLAYS

Load up on DK Metcalf in a good back and forth game
Buy into Todd Gurley in that same game
The Browns are going to do it a year after disappointing everyone
Pick on the Jaguars every week and look at Michael Pittman Jr to be the sneaky cheap WR of the week
Washington‘s defense is good, we can fade the Eagles

So I plan to just write up 3 Quarterbacks. I am not one of these touts who likes to try and cover all my bases with 10 picks each week at Quarterback. Sure, I could write up some good thoughts on guys like Derek Carr or Jimmy G. Yeah, Kyler Murray is a nice second year Quarterback who I could write some thoughts on and if I was a fraud I could even come up with some positive things to say about Cam Newton… But let’s be focused here. The goal is to not pick mistakes while finding the guy who fits within the right value. I always believe Quarterback is overhyped in DFS and so if you want someone who isn’t listed here you definitely have other options. But I’m banking on 20+ from everyone below this week.

Russell Wilson

Wilson is my top Quarterback overall this week if we ignore his price. It’s a game against a team who has a below average defense and a high powered offense in their own so we can trust that of all the games this weekend this one probably has the most juice to it. The benefit of someone like Wilson is that I expect him to account for the majority of Seattle’s touchdowns while adding a little rushing bonus and a fairly safe 260+ yard passing floor. His price tag means that we’d like a 300 yard day plus 3 scores, but you won’t get killed going with Wilson and Metcalf together.

Drew Brees

It’s Brees against a team who doesn’t allow you to run on them so expect the Saints to throw it 35+ times this week and while I 100% believe there’s a trick play involving Winston throwing it deep, there’s no reason to think Brees won’t go over 300 yards this week against Tampa. The only variance is does he get more than 2 TD.

Baker Mayfield

I would not play Mayfield naked at Quarterback because the primary plays I love here are Landry and OBJ as I expect Baltimore to focus on the Cleveland run game and give Mayfield chances to take shots for big plays in the passing game. So you might as well get the correlation of Landry and/or OBJ with him.

Just missed my top 3: Philip Rivers, Kyler Murray (DK)

Not touching: Tom Brady, Carson Wentz

Running Back is not the spot to always get cute with. Once you have a pool of a few players you lock them in and move on. That is very much the case for me this week although the rare spot with the schedule for week 1 is that I wouldn’t say there’s a top dog above the rest here.

Josh Jacobs

Carolina had an atrocious rushing defense last year but it was slightly better at home where former Panther Luke Keuchley always seemed to be locked in on what the other team was about to do. Luke is now gone and retired and despite using their first round pick on the mighty Derrick Brown I am still interested in picking on the Panther defense with running backs this season.

Todd Gurley

Outlined above the benefits of Gurley this week. Expect him to score and have a really good game.

Alvin Kamara

So what do we always say about Kamara? You wan’t him against good rushing defenses on DraftKings. Why? Kamara is not Barkley, Zeke, Jacobs, Mixon or even CMC when it comes to how he is used. He rarely is going to be that running back who has 100 yards rushing so when you use Kamara it’s for three things. You are using him obviously in a game that should have lots of plays and good scoring flow (check), you are using him in a spot where he should catch 5+ passes and get that full PPR bonus value (check) and you are using him in a spot where he can get over 100 total yards offense for the DK bonuses (check). It all checks out this week for Kamara — who just signed a nice extension and is coming into this game perfectly healthy. He’ll be used quite a bit and to me is the better Saint to use this week than Michael Thomas given price, position depth and match-up. The Saints will need to force the Bucs to decide between their solid LB or weak secondary into coverage on Kamara and either benefits New Orleans quite frankly.

Others that are in play for me.

Dalvin Cook: He checks all the boxes as a home favorite RB and the Packers rush D was a problem last season. Just not high on this game overall which is why he isn’t higher up for me.
James White … The idea that New England is suddenly worse than the Dolphins is a bit much. Yes, the gap is closed but the Patriots are going to win this game and while Miami is getting better, they’re still not quite there yet. It’s just always a headache which RB to use from N.E.
Jonathan Taylor … I expect it to be a blowout and he’ll get in the box. Good value as a third RB.
Mark Ingram … I’m not ready to go full hype on JK Dobbins just yet.

Not touching: Miles Sanders, Marlon Mack, Austin Ekeler

No position is more different week to week between DraftKings and FanDuel than Wide Receiver. This extends onto the other sites like FantasyDraft and Yahoo! as well but when you look at evaluations on Wide Receivers you gotta understand the difference in site scoring, pricing and sometimes ownership. Example: Jarvis Landry = DK play. Odell Beckham = FD play. Landry is the PPR machine when he has a big game and you’ll take a 7-65 game every week from him on DK when he’s priced reasonably in the mid range. Beckham is that big play TD threat where a 3 for 60 and a touchdown day stands out considerably more on FD than it does on DK where some jabroni could catch 9 balls in garbage time and beat him out. I will list the guys I like and why, but you need to translate the why into the right scoring format.

The plan here is to outline the top two receivers, a stud sleeper one off, a value sleeper one off and then the top 5 other WR I would use on secondary lineups. I am open to feedback always so if you find this helping or confusing then let me know. But the reason for this is that WR is the spot you take shots on. Quarterback is where you can go lower ownership, RB is where you do not chase bad chalk and WR is where because you start 3 or 4 each week you are taking some gambles. So the list is longer, but the focal point guys should be narrow.

D.K Metcalf

Elite play for me this week in all scoring formats, but especially FD.

Allen Robinson

Because I am now downgrading Landry due to hip concerns, there’s a need for a heavy PPR play on DK this week. A-Rob is going to be that guy even though it’s a game I am less excited about than the general public. The Bears side to me is nice to look at in the passing game with the Lions having shipped out Darius Slay and any team that rolls out Desmond Trufant & Justin Coleman at CB with a rookie behind them is a spot that should give up plenty of receptions — even with Trubisky at QB.

Stud Sleeper One Off(s)

Adam Thielen

If you remove a game the Vikings punted last December against the Packers, Thielen has gone for 5-75, 8-125-1, 12-131-1, 2-24, 9-96 and 12-202-2 in his career against the Green Bay Packers. Yes, the defenders have changed and this is now decent strength in their defense but I also view Thielen as the main trusted passing weapon for Cousins, who should have success with play action due to the positive rushing match-up this week and my bold call here is that this game only has two touchdowns in it, and they both come from Thielen.

Value Sleeper One Off(s)

Michael Pittman Jr.

If the Colts are going to score 40+ points and do it with everyone involved then you want to find the value plays from the Colts and for me I will trust the rookie Michael Pittman Jr, who I see as being better long term than Paris Campbell

The top others in play for me this week who are not named Thomas, Michael

Marquise Brown – So everyone just loooooooves to write stuff about how game flow or game script is going to force a team to throw the ball because they should be behind. Normally I scoff at this logic for Quarterbacks but like it for receivers. Problem is, nobody ever actually gets creative with who is behind and they always just go with the favorites in front! What if Cleveland jumps out early on Baltimore and then the Ravens win late on a Tucker FG? Guess who gets them back in the game. Hollywood.
Oakland WR – Ruggs and/or Renfroe – Great spot for Oakland receivers this week, Ruggs is the preferred option for a bit more upside but Renfroe is a guy I am on big this season and to me he is the next “Jordy Nelson” type guy who is just always producing.
Chris Godwin – Usually has fared extremely well against New Orleans simply because Lattimore is lockdown on Evans (who I believe does play). But the Saints will have Patrick Robinson, Ceedy Duce or Janoris Jenkins on Godwin at times with deep safety help over the top. He’s a volume play with Brady looking to get the ball out quick. So preferred on full PPR sites.
Christian Kirk – Playing the 4PM slate? You know you want too. Lock in Kirk.
Calvin Ridley – If you want to go heavier on the Falcons/Seahawks game I would go Ridley over Julio.
Jarvis Landry – Had to downgrade him with the HIP injury news coming out on Saturday.

Not touching: DeSean Jackson, Marvin Jones Jr, Jets/Bills WR, Mike Evans

No position in fantasy football is more true to “DvP” (Defense vs Position) than Tight End. But it does change from season to season. Last year it was attack the Bucs and Cardinals every week with Tight Ends, but now the Cardinals have added a Isaiah Simmons who can be really good in coverage when he realizes what he should be doing, but for now he is very raw. Tampa’s defense continues to improve so I expect them to get better vs TE but maybe not dominant quite yet.

Hunter Henry

We should probably be trying to attack the Bengals defense in some shape or form and the Chargers offense might not be clicking early with Tyrod taking over but I trust him to find his stud TE who’s priced very reasonably on both sites.

George Kittle

Very simple, Arizona bad vs TE should continue until Simmons learns how to play or they find someone else to cover TE. Keep in mind too that Simmons best asset is actually close to the line of scrimmage as a pass rusher, so I don’t know if he’ll actually even cover Kittle at all. He’s pricey, but he’s far better play than Zach Ertz this week and it’s not even close.

TE Darts

Greg Olsen – Call it a hunch play.
Jared Cook – Of course I know Taysom is TE eligible on FanDuel. Cook is too cheap though.
Cameron Brate – Expect lots of 2 TE sets for the Bucs and no, it’s not Gronk or Howard who score.

Not touching: Zach Ertz

One of my bold calls for week one below is related to defenses scoring, so I hope you have a comfortable pair of pants on this week because it could get wild.

Buffalo Bills

An elite defense at home against an offense that is vulnerable to turning the ball over. Not a hard decision here.

Indianapolis Colts

40+ point teams rarely do that without help from the defense. Can’t ignore picking on Jacksonville and Minshew who should take 3+ sacks and turn it over 2+ times this week.

New Orleans Saints

Want a sneaky leverage play on this late feature game of the week? Both defenses score. But I expect special teams to be rough in week one and the Saints have a star in Deonte Harris returning kicks. This is the value defense of the week.

Sleeper: Washington

Not touching: LA Chargers

Questions and Answers

It’s back! The analysis you never knew you needed. The Questions and Answers that I anticipate you asking even though you haven’t actually asked it yet…

Question: Is Christian McCaffery ok to play?

Is CMC alive? Yes

Is CMC playing football? Yes

Is the game on DraftKings or FanDuel or Yahoo or any DFS site? Yes

Ok then yes CMC is in play.

What does the breakdown for the 4PM only slate look like?

Great question. The Saints-Bucs game is likely the most popular one but in reality the other two games are just as good for offense. I would lean heavily on the Cardinals-49ers game where Arizona was very good against San Francisco last year and Jimmy G had some big games versus the Cardinals. Kirk + Kittle would be the top targets in this game and then do not be afraid to take RB in the Saints-Bucs game on that slate or go 2 TE with your FLEX spot. TE’s are loaded in the 4pm slate.

Give us a total out there call this week?

Jameis Winston throws a 45 yard TD pass to Deonte Harris.

No, seriously, give us a non Saints related out there call this week.

Washington defense sacks Carson Wentz 6 times and the Eagles offense is a chalk flop. But beyond that, we see bad tackling on special teams and late game turnovers which lead to multiple defenses scoring this week. There’s usually 3 or 4 weeks in DFS where that happens and I see that being this week.

What are the best three bets for this week?

Browns, Cardinals, Washington

Do I win a prize if roster Taysom at QB and win a GPP?

Yeah, but I don’t think this is the week for that, sorry.

What’s a game you didn’t get heavy on but are afraid you could go off…

Cardinals and 49ers. I would expect Murray to be a top play this week but I don’t have him high enough because of my love for the Falcons-Seahawks game and wanting to get Wilson-Metcalf in.

What’s the deepest position this week?

Probably Wide Receiver, which is why I am not forcing in Thomas, Julio, Hopkins, etc…. Lots of good mid range plays there.

What is the worst take you heard all week long?

The Jaguars are a good stack because they should be trailing. You know why they should be trailing? Because Gardner Minshew III could be upgraded to Gardner Minshew 28.3 and he would still be atrocious at avoiding sacks, turning the ball over and putting up a good first half. The kid was mediocre at best in college where he got to run a gun slinging offense against bad opponents and now you want him to beat up on the Colts who are one of the top 10 defenses in the NFL and should control time of possession all game long? Give me all the smoke if Minshew does anything in the first half that sniffs positive points for the Jaguars. BUT HE WILL BE TRAILING!!!! That’s great. You’ll have a Blutarsky at half time and only 30 minutes to try and get 20+ fantasy points. Good luck with that….

What contests should I be playing? What contests are you playing?

We always want higher $ and lower sized fields to play in. With football it can be difficult to avoid the contests with over 1000 users in them, but if you wait until close to lock you’ll find great contests that have 10x or more to first place and less than 300 users. Those are ideal because you do not have to take hail mary’s to win them, you can extremely increase your ROI with a 10x to first contest and you’ll overall be sweating less garbage touchdowns from players you don’t have because the ownership isn’t all over the place on a million players. The reason I do not worry about the 10th ranked QB going off is because nobody has the 10th ranked QB in my contests and at the end of the day, I can still invest say $100 and turn it into $1000 with a lineup. Not bad right?

You should focus on contests that fit with the lineup process you have. We will all throw money away at the milli-makers or qualifiers, etc. But NFL is one of the better cash game sports out there and you should be building a main lineup to give you a profitable week with some secondary lineups that are in winnable contests.

Hey, I was thinking of sending you a DM on Twitter during the Saints game. Thoughts?

I would not advise it.

When can you be available in slack or chat to help with questions? What’s best?

Saturday’s. Sunday’s are never good for answering questions which should be answered on Saturday’s. My lineups rarely change Sunday mornings and I find that I always have more success when 90% of everything is done by 9am on Sunday mornings. Shoot me a message any time though, but really the questions should be focused on questions directly from my write-up here or questions specific to game flow/match-ups/etc. Simply asking a question like “Should I go Baker & Landry or Lamar & Brown in my $2 SE” is a question you should be asking yourself. Come up with a thought process on how you decide A vs B and then my advice on who should be considered in A vs B will be easier to translate. Own it.

Food? Beverages? What’s on the menu this week in the Renner house?

Great question. I think we need to have a little “talk” because she’s a little quiet in regards to making some Chili for tomorrow. I mean, it is a home game at 4:25 PM EST and well, I think we need some Spicy Chili to kick off the season right? Beverage of choice will be Abita HOP 99… Note quite Fall Fest season for me yet, gotta wait just one more week….

Final Thoughts?

We Prowl.

We Eat.

We Kill.

Have a great season everyone!

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