This is the weirdest schedule configuration for a Monday I have ever seen. DraftKings slate will lock at 4:05 PM today with seven games on it, while FanDuel locks at 7:35 PM with three games on it. And I don’t blame FanDuel at all in this scenario, it’s just a weird configuration of games. So this is 100% focused on DK with a three game slate just not being of much interest to me.
The problem? Three of the seven games on DraftKings are 7 inning double header games and there’s even a slight confusion on starting pitchers in a couple of them. But I think we have clarity now and we’ll track ahead.
WEATHER
Would be fitting with such few games today to have weather issues, but thankfully there are none.
THE GAMES
Pirates vs Reds – 7 innings
Phillies vs Marlins
Cardinals vs Brewers – 7 innings
Athletics vs Mariners – 7 innings
Braves vs Orioles
Twins vs White Sox
Dodgers vs Padres
There is no reason to be concerned with going a pitcher in a 7 inning game, in fact the benefits of using someone in a 7 inning game in a great spot is INCREASED because as happened yesterday w/ Sixto Sanchez, you can get that 7 inning complete game bonus a lot easier & you remove any bullpen issues.
Trevor Bauer
Nobody is more likely to just take the ball, pitch all 7 innings and strike out close to 40% of the batters he faces today than Bauer. Pittsburgh usually plays well in Cincinnati, but they’re just not very good and didn’t do anything in getting shutout versus Kansas City yesterday. They will certainly be picked on by everyone today, it’s not that much benefit to fading Bauer in a short game where the CG bonus is highly likely since he always throws 100+ pitches anyways.
Jesus Luzardo
Another 7 inning spot but do not expect Luzardo to be as likely to get the CG here. Seattle has cooled off quite a bit and his talent compared to what his price is today is too great to pass up. I will note, this was one of the games I had questions on who starts the game that is on the DK slate as Mike Minor is the other likely Oakland pitcher in the second game, both should pitch extremely well today for Oakland and if there’ some change then go with the alternative option.
Atlanta Braves
Dansby Swanson & Bottom of the order Duvall/Albies/Travis d’Arnaud
The best lineup in baseball right now gets to walk into Camden Yards and Dansby Swanson had a rough weekend in Washington but is primed along with the bottom of this order to go off in Baltimore. We have the return of Nick Markakis back to Camden Yards but guys like Swanson, Duvall, Ozuna are the batters I really want today. Atlanta is the best play out there tonight and there’s no reason IMO to force in Freeman/Acuna just because when the rest of the lineup looks so good as well.
Miami Marlins
Matt Joyce, Jesus Aguilar, Corey Dickerson
We need a little value on this slate with Atlanta looking so good and paying for Bauer+Luzardo. Insert Miami at home against Vinnie Velasquez in one of the few 9 inning projected games. With this series going on forever the hitters get a boost seeing some of the same bullpen arms over and over. Happy Matt Joyce day!
Baltimore Orioles
Cedric Mullins, DJ Stewart, Ryan Mountcastle
For the leverage crowd I would consider Baltimore against Touki Toussaint — who at $5600 likely draws some decent ownership as a heavy favorite. Big mistake in my mind when DJ Stewart comes to the plate and drills a 2 run homer in the bottom of the first inning knocking in Cedric the Entertainer Mullins.
St. Louis Cardinals
Kolten Wong, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong
Tough for me to love a 7 inning game when the 9 inning games look so good today, but if there’s one team who nobody will touch it’s likely the Cardinals. They normally destroy Milwaukee in Milwaukee and with the Brewers having thrown in the towel a long time ago, this should be a good spot to beat up on their pitching.
CATCHER
Prefer not to spend here, TDA not a bad play if he’s in for Atlanta but pricey.
- Jorge Alfarro
- Tucker Barnhardt
- Travis d’Arnaud
FIRST BASE
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Paul Goldschmidt … In his Stadium
- Jesus Aguilar
SECOND BASE
- Kolten Wong
- Tommy La Stella
- Ozzie Albies
THIRD BASE
- Matt Carpenter
- Austin Riley
- Josh Donaldson
SHORTSTOP
- Dansby Swanson
- Miguel Rojas
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Joc Pederson
- Adam Duvall
- Max Kepler
- Matt Joyce
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Eloy Jimenez
- Gregory Polanco
- Nick Markakis
- Marcell Ozuna
OUTFIELD – Value
- Cedric Mullins
- DJ Stewart
- Andrew McCutchen
- Kolten Wong – 2B – Cardinals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Dansby Swanson – SS – Braves
- DJ Stewart – OF – Orioles
- Matt Joyce – OF – Marlins
- Travis d’Arnaud – C – Braves
- Joc Pederson – OF – Dodgers
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
- Josh Donaldson – 3B – Twins
- BONUS ……………………………………….. Ryan Mountcastle 1B/OF – Orioles