Another big weekend for College Football and more big contests out there on both DK and even FD has CFB this year too — which I totally forgot about. There are thirteen (13) games in fact on the Main CFB DFS slate for DraftKings this Saturday.
TOP TIER GAMES
Texas Tech at Kansas State, OU: 64
Memphis at SMU, OU: 74.5
TCU at Texas, OU: 62.5
South Carolina at Florida, OU: 57.5
MID RANGE GAMES
North Carolina at Boston College, OU: 54
Oklahoma State at Kansas, OU: 54
Virginia Tech at Duke, OU: 54
Baylor at West Virginia, OU: 53.5
GAMES THAT I HAVE LITTLE TO NO INTEREST IN
N.C. State at Pittsburgh, OU: 46.5
Texas A&M at Alabama, OU: 51.5
USF at Cincinnati, OU: 47.5
Missouri at Tennessee, OU: 48.5
Mississippi at Kentucky, OU: 61.5 … FADE – Play the under.
TOP GAMES OF THE DAY
CFB is generally very chalky in relation to the over/under projections because there’s good reason for them tied to offenses generally being one dimensional, so the choice on these top games is if you go all in, balance them all out, or fade one and mix in the appropriate one offs.
Marquee Game
Memphis (-2.5) at SMU
This is the insane total game of the slate and anytime we get a total that is north of 70 points we gotta assume we have some stud Quarterbacks right? Well, I guess…. Brady White has never been someone that leaps out to me as an elite Quarterback but he finds a way to get it done and will be facing an SMU defense which a season ago ranked 125th against the pass allowing 34 total touchdowns through the air. So far through three games this year they look better statistically but don’t be fooled by a soft schedule. Memphis has lost quite a bit of talent to the NFL from their playmakers but still have Seniors Damonte Coxie ($8,300) and Sean Dykes ($5,000). Both have the ability to completely ruin this slate and Coxie in particular could be your slightly lower owned but still chalky enough player that you’re wishing you had. The chalkiest play from this game on DK though will be Kylan Watkins who is a extreme value RB getting too many snaps to be overlooked.
Here’s the key difference on this game. Memphis played one game and then had a two week break due to COVID. SMU has played three games and should be in better shape, plus has had more time to make adjustments. Huge advantage in my mind given that SMU is a little better routine so far and is at home. SMU wins, and the game is definitely high scoring.
Memphis: Brady White (QB), Kylan Watkins (RB), Damonte Coxie (WR), Sean Dykes (WR)
SMU: Shane Beuchele (QB), Rashee Rice (WR)
Undercard
TCU at Texas (-13)
TCU is a much better all around team and defense than Texas Tech, who Texas went bananas on last week as expected. But that should not stop us from looking at Texas here and pretty much most of this season so long as we can still get them at affordable prices and in games that should remain close. They’re an elite offense which is led by one of the best DFS Quarterbacks in the country in dual threat Sam Ehlinger, who unlike other dual threat Quarterbacks is loaded at the WR position and runs when he has to for big gains. I don’t care if Texas is facing a good defense, they’re at home, have loaded weapons and should always be on our radar. The benefit in doing a game stack is that Texas’ defense remains bad and should struggle once again to defend the run, something TCU QB Max Duggan does fairly well too.
TCU: Max Duggan (QB), Emari Demercado (RB)
Texas: Sam Ehlinger (QB), Brenden Schooler (WR)
Sneaky Game
Baylor (-3) at West Virginia
West Virginia is playing very efficiently on offense and appears to have a thread headed monster in fantasy terms with Jarret Doege (QB), Leddie Brown (RB) and Sam James (WR). James remains the most favorable play week in and week out as he’s going to see 20-25% of the targets and is only $5,600. He came through big time for me a couple weeks ago in a home game and I would expect him to have to be good here as well if this game is going to go over like I think it can. Baylor is the better team and the better offense, and getting a road veteran Quarterback in a tight game really gives me confidence that this game has sneaky potential to it.
The problem with Baylor is who do you trust in the backfield as Senior RB John Lovett was the primary back last season, but split carries with fellow Senior Trestan Ebner last week. I personally will just avoid both of these guys and trust Brewer to do some damage on the ground (he averaged 10.5 YPC and had 11 rushing touchdowns in 2019). Outside, a lot of hype has been thrown towards Tyquan Thornton as being a breakout wide receiver but he went without a catch last weekend and is only $5,400. He’s a lock in this game stack.
Baylor: Charlie Brewer (QB), Tyquan Thornton (WR)
West Virginia: Leddie Brown (RB), Sam James (WR)
Other teams to look at: North Carolina, Alabama
MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS
QUARTERBACKS
Brady White (Memphis) … White over Buechele for me.
Charlie Brewer (Baylor) … A guy can be played naked in what I think is a sneaky game this weekend.
Sam Ehlinger (Texas) … #AlwaysEhlinger
Max Duggan (TCU) … I would only game stack w/ Ehlinger
RUNNING BACKS
Chuba Hubbard (Oklahoma State)
Through two games the player regarded as the top Running Back in the country has been nicknamed Chubust. Going on the road the Cowboys should rely on their star running back against a putrid Kansas rush defense.
Michael Carter (North Carolina)
Carter will see rushes and targets in the passing game making him my preferred UNC play today. The Tar Heels draw a really rough Boston College defense today.
OTHERS:
- Kylan Watkins (Memphis)
- SaRodorick Thompson (Texas Tech)
- Gerrid Doaks (Cincinnati)
- Ulysses Bentley (SMU)
WIDE RECEIVERS
Damonte Coxie (Memphis), Sean Dykes (Memphis)
Really hard to fade the #1 WR in the top shootout game of the day. You’ll need him and/or Sean Dykes
Shi Smith (South Carolina)
Shi is a top one off for me. I expect Florida to be extremely good on offense this year and thus they will give up some points in games when they have 20+ point leads. Smith see’s about 40% of the target share for the Gamecocks and should be priced north of $7,000. Until he is, lock him in and move on because he’s going to catch 8-12 passes every single game.
OTHERS:
- Joshua Moore (Texas) and Brendan Schooler (Texas)
- Dazz Newsome (North Carolina)
- Reggie Roberson (SMU)
- DeVonta Smith (Bama)
- Sam James (WVU)