Welcome to Week 5 NFL Ambush, a full guide into this weekends NFL DFS Main Slate of action to help you become a better player and find some success.
Full transparency as always, I had my first double bad week between both DraftKings and FanDuel last week and I assume if you follow this article by every point each week then you are likely in the same boat as me. Despite having the play of the week in Joe Mixon it wound up not being enough due to other misses and that’s how DFS works. One great call doesn’t just get you over when you have other misses. Especially with NFL DFS the key is to avoid misses.
Nothing really stood out for me in terms of lessons learned or trends in the NFL, however I will point out this interesting factoid. The last three prime time games from last weekend and into this week’s Thursday Night Bucs-Bears game have all started to trend down in points. Are we seeing NFL defense’s finally get into shape and able to cover better? Personally, I saw a ton of flags in the Bucs and Bears game on Thursday and more than I have seen in most other games this season. It might be time where the NFL is reigning in some of the freedoms they were giving to offensive lines at the start of the year. Something worth monitoring.
Speaking of monitoring, we need to monitor every single game it appears for potential COVID issues. Last weekend did show us a scenario where a team could find out they have someone COVID positive after traveling to the destination city. Luckily for New Orleans and for DFS players the Michael Burton Saturday night positive test turned out to be a false-positive and they got the game in. But I would encourage you to make sure you mentally have a side note on who your pivot would be for all the players you love the most in your lineup builds each week.
This week we have already lost two games and a third is certainly in question as of when I am writing this.
- Denver at New England – This game has moved to Monday Night and will be played as part of a Monday Night doubleheader. I really had zero love for this game coming in to the week, so go ahead and cross it off.
- Buffalo at Tennessee – This game has been moved to Tuesday Night for now. I loved a lot of players in this game, so I was bummed to see it slide off the slate as both Derrick Henry and John Brown were going to be featured targets for me.
- Because of the Buffalo/Tennessee game shifting, the following week right now has no Thursday Night game and this benefits the Chiefs who no longer have to turn around and travel on a short week after their game this Sunday.
On to Week 5 now, we had been running a little bit hot and I frankly could barely see the competition from the heat coming off the Ambush. So while we made the mistake of reaching down and easing the seat back last week. This week I’ve got the feeling, power steering, Pistons popping, ain’t no stopping now . . .
PANAMA!
SLATE INFORMATION
The first thing we must do each Week is understand the landscape of the slate and any injury or weather or miscellaneous information that we need to monitor from the time this article comes out (Saturday’s) until lock on Sunday at 1PM EST.
Injuries and Playing Time Concerns
Since my article is being posted on Saturday afternoon’s I am not going to mess with guys who are ruled OUT as of Friday — because you likely already know this by now. Here’s the notable injuries and my thoughts on the players status as well as the impact of them playing or not.
Lamar Jackson (Knee) – He is cleared to go and was just resting the knee to limit the wear and tear during a practice week. No concerns for me here.analysis.
Julio Jones (Body) – I joke about Julio’s entire body being banged up, but it’s always something with him. If he sits, major boost for Hayden Hurst in my mind. Ridley is in play either way and Olamide Zaccheaus is someone who they’ve wanted to get involved more for a while now so he’s in play either way. I wouldn’t touch Julio if he does play.
Nothing else is of any impact to me in terms of what I know right now.
Weather Status
Potential rain coming across to the east coast which would impact Rams/Washington and Cincinnati/Baltimore with rain. But it doesn’t look that bad.
Projected Ownership
The most spread out ownership projections I have seen in quite some time. I literally think that I have heard justification for almost every single team this week except for maybe Washington as being good plays in DFS. In some ways this is fantastic because it’s better than weeks when you have 40% ownership at every single position on the top players. However, I don’t always trust the projections on ownership on weeks like this as we get closer to Sunday everyone winds up on the same plays.
- QB: Very spread out this week.
- RB: Edwards-Helaire, Elliott, Mike Davis, Kareem Hunt
- WR: Cooper, Lamb, Slayton, Moore, Tyreek Hill
- TE: Kelce, Engram
- DEF: Rams, 49ers
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
CLYDE THE GLIDE
Ambush Play #1 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire
So far the Las Vegas Raiders have had to face Christian McCaffery, Alvin Kamara, the Patriots heavy running game and Devin Singletary. They rank dead last in the NFL in yards allowed through the air to opposing Running Backs. It’s understandable considering CMC and AK41 live through the passing game, but the other two match-ups should not have been as difficult and they were. Vegas is in a spot where they have to overcompensate to ensure Kelce and Tyreek do not break off big gainers against them and that just opens up more underneath for Edwards-Helaire to end as the #1 running back this week. He will be high owned for good reasons.
HEY JOE!
Ambush Play #2 – Joe Burrow leads the Bengals into Baltimore in a shootout with Hollywood Brown and the Ravens in rainy Baltimore.
When this play goes off on Sunday immediately open up DraftKings and lock in Justin Jefferson as a captain on the Showdown slate. The correlation there? 2019 LSU Tigers week obviously (Get it? Burrow, Edwards-Helaire, JJ!). But in all seriousness this is not me forcing some theme with the first two Ambush plays this week. I love Burrow as the best value QB on a slate where many are considering Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater and maybe even Kyle Allen? Seriously???
Burrow has zero chance of getting a supporting ground game this week against the Ravens who don’t allow 100 yard rushers Mixon is once again a little banged up coming into this game. Mixon is not going to pop off two weeks in a row. Expect Cincinnati to spread it out against the Ravens secondary and trust Burrow who has been the second best QB in all of the NFL so far in 0-20 yard throws thus far. He’ll keep the chains moving and turn this into a shootout leaning on Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Auden Tate (!) and yes, A.J. Green the man who has torched Ravens fans over the years. AJ Green scores and Burrow accounts for three touchdowns, 300 yards passing and 50+ scrambling rushing yards.
BOOMER SOONERS
Ambush Play #3 – It’s Red River Rivalry week and the former Oklahoma WR’s should dominate this week.
Alright, now this is definitely me forcing a former college theme. But the Hollywood Brown-CeeDee Lamb WR1-WR2 build is so tempting for so many reasons this weekend. First with Marquise Hollywood Brown he’s consistently seeing enough volume this year as their primary receiving target not named Mark Andrews and all the talk about Lamar Jackson’s knee to me just boosts more reasons for them to throw it to their playmakers for big plays. Cincinnati has given up yards seemingly every week on the outside and that’s where Brown is running more this year, plus we know if he gets it in space over the middle, he’s gone.
CeeDee Lamb is a little tougher to lock in because of so many weapons on the Cowboys side and Zeke Elliott makes a lot of sense again. But in the NFL these days there’s no reason to force yourself off a good offense simply because you like another player there. That’s what we have with CeeDee Lamb who has settled in nicely as the #2 in Dallas with Gallup becoming more of the down field threat every once and a while it seems. I trust Cooper more in games when Dallas is going to be trailing and Gallup only as a value play. But Lamb is still underpriced for his 100 yard upside. So lock in the former Sooners and yes, there’s another former sooner coming later in the article as well.
CRAZY EIGHTS
Ambush Play #4 – Evan Engram is the top Tight End this weekend.
He destroys the Cowboys. Just pull up the history and you’ll see that even with Daniel Jones (who only works over the middle of the field) Engram has been the guy of late for the Giants. I do like Golden Tate here and before you say “why dont you like Daniel Jones” then hear me out. The Cowboys defense has been so beneficial to opposing teams because of big plays every single week. The Giants lack the ability to score big plays which is why they’re averaging around 10 points per game. But what they can do is complete a TON of balls over the middle to the Tight End, which Dallas is in the bottom of the league against and should let Engram catch 8 balls easily this week. Eight catches for Eight yards a pop and just throw in a random 24 yards in there somewhere to make it an 8 for 88 game for number #88 on the Giants this week and those numbers even without a touchdown are good enough to secure him as our TE1 this week.
I also love Kelce and Waller, so this is a solid Tight End week in Week 5 and we’re fools not to consider two TE on DraftKings.
ERUPTION GAMES: HAPPY GAME STACK WEEK
Ambush Play #5 – It’s finally time to STACK a GAME
Please go back and re-read my articles from Week 1 through Week 4 (if you have the time) and you will clearly see that I have never been one to come out and list out a bunch of stacks that you should be using in NFL. Simply put, stacking is the ultimate gambling recommendation in most of DFS sports because you are putting all of your eggs into one basket and in the NFL specifically when we have 12 or 13 games on many slates there’s just no reason to play for a shootout game when we can get a good balanced well built lineup from multiple games.
This weekend though we’ve lost two teams to BYE and a few games due to COVID issues, so the player pool is greatly diminished. That combined with a feeling that a few games could under-perform gives us an excellent opportunity to take some shots on a game stack here or there — even in a main lineup in single entry tournaments and yes, you can stack in cash my friends because who doesn’t play the same lineup in Cash & Single Entry? Not me. So which games are the ones that I would load up on you ask? Simple.
- Cincinnati at Baltimore (Under Radar): Joe Burrow – JK Dobbins – AJ Green – Marquise Brown. This QB-RB-WR-WR loaded up spot is the best value you can find in a game stack this weekend. I project Burrow to match Lamar Jackson PT/$, while the other three I expect to score touchdowns in this game. We’ve attacked the Bengals on the ground all season and with Lamar Jackson a little banged up and Mark Ingram just being inconsistent, it’s J.K. Dobbins who I expect to have his breakout game this weekend and is a fantastic value play on all sites.
- NY Giants at Dallas (Chalky): Because of their names and a little Jason Garrett narrative, you can point to this game being up there in ownership for sure. But I don’t mind as I prefer this one by a wide margin over the Carolina-Atlanta game which should also be very popular for game stacks. This one is a gamestack to get a little weird in and just take the best players overall in it as Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott, Golden Tate, Evan Engram all grade out very well for me in this game. There’s also little reason to not love each of the Cowboys receivers but I would only use them if swapping out Zeke Elliott.
- Vegas at Kansas City (Medium Ownership): Mahomes, Edwards-Helaire, Jacobs, Waller. This is a rare double RB included in the game stack spot, but both RB will catch enough passes to justify pairing them with the Quarterbacks. I didn’t list Kelce but if you go full game stack he’d be the next one to plug in.
Games I am not interested in
The list is MUCH shorter this week with fewer games and honestly there is ONE player in some of these games I like respective to Early only or Late slates. They’re mentioned in ()’s
- LA Rams at Washington (Robert Woods on Early Only)
- Indianapolis at Cleveland (TY Hilton scores ladies and gentlemen, but Late Slate only)
- Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (Game either shoots the moon or is 19-13 final)
- Dolphins at 49ers (Niners defense and RB in all formats available)
Spots that are popular which I am not on:
- Jacksonville at Houston
- Carolina at Atlanta
RECAP OF AMBUSH PLAYS
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire is this weeks top Running Back
- Joe Burrow for the Bengals is the value QB to have a great game.
- Former Oklahoma Sooners WR go off this week
- #88 in Dallas…. Evan Engram
- STACKS? Yep, we can stack this week!
QUARTERBACKS
Kyler Murray (Cardinals)
If we ignore the fear of the perception that the Meadowlands new turf is haunted by the ghost of Jimmy Hoffa then there’s no reason to not like Kyler Murray this weekend. The Jets have mounted a total of ZERO sacks in their last two games and prior to facing a rookie in their last game they were allowing over 70% completion percentage through the air. Kyler should have no problem connecting with Hopkins, Fitz and Kirk but I think all three are going to do what they do best which means Kyler is the one who benefits statistically. 10 passes to Hopkins, a slant touchdown to Fitzgerald and a bomb touchdown to Kirk. This gives Kyler his 2 passing touchdowns, 275 yards through the air and after not running it in the red zone last week he’ll keep it this week and score an easy one. Is he a 30+ must own play? No. But he’s priced better than some of the stud QB’s and thus a fine option.
Lamar Jackson (Ravens)
There is a strong chance that everyone wakes on Monday morning with a headache wondering why nobody used Lamar Jackson against the Bengals. Because he sat out practice to rest his knee and was a little “sick”? Lamar has feasted on bad defenses, including going over 30 points both times against the Cincinnati Bengals last season. Cincy is going to get back Geno Atkins in the middle of their defensive line but the Ravens had no issues handling him last year when Lamar went for 150+ in their first meeting and would have had the same in their second meeting if he had tried. Baltimore should put up 30+ points this weekend and although I love J.K. Dobbins to have a breakout game, they’re not going to get to 30+ without Lamar contributing as well in a rainy Baltimore.
Joe Burrow (Bengals)
Out lined Joe Burrow above and firmly believe in him as the best value to low mid range Quarterback to lock in on this week even in a very tough match-up. Ballers Ball and this is another game where Burrow should air it out 40+ times making him someone we can trust to finish with a good score. The potential for rain as this game builds up does bring a little concern but that’s the only thing I see slowing him down.
Just missed my top 3: Dak Prescott, Matt Ryan
Not touching: DeShaun Watson, Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater
RUNNING BACKS
This weekend we have no Kamara, no Henry, no DalCook, no Aaron Jones. Lots of good running backs are off but we’ve still got a clear set of guys that I love here this week.
Clyde Edwards – Helaire (Chiefs)
Outlined above why he is a top play on the slate. His floor is around 14 points and that is without a touchdown. He may not have a better chance to roll for three touchdowns than this weekend.
Ezekiel Elliott (Cowboys)
Zeke is Mr. Steady in 2020. Because Dallas has to throw so much he gets his floor with the dump downs from Dak. The big question with him every week is when will we see the 2 or 3 touchdown game and facing the Giants seems like a logical spot to just play Zeke and move on.
Josh Jacobs (Raiders)
How should the Raiders attack the Chiefs? Jacobs and Waller with a little Red Zone Renfrow. If Jacobs doesn’t see the ball over 20 times this weekend it means Gruden got kidnapped or he got hurt. Hard to project anyone better than Jacobs for a nice floor game this weekend. Last season everyone plugged in Fournette because he got the ball so much, even in the passing game for the Jaguars and right now due to WR injuries the Raiders plan with Jacobs should be very similar to that.
Sleepers
J.K. Dobbins (Ravens)
He is getting on the field that’s not the issue. The issue is that he has to be a home run threat to stay in competition with the other big RB each week. Against the Bengals, there’s no better chance for a home run threat than this week.
Brian Hill (Falcons)
In many ways this can be considered one of those “getting too cute?” plays in DFS which I want to mention but honestly don’t know that you need to force it in. The logic is simple. I am once again attacking the Panthers on the ground, and this isn’t likely to change much this season but the love for Todd Gurley all of the sudden has me sick to my stomach. On a short week you want to ride Gurley off his best game in forever? No chance, Brian Hill doesnt vulture him against the Panthers — who if you recall, was the team Hill was failed chalk against last year. Not this time at home.
Also on my radar, just not in the top 3:
James Robinson (Jaguars)
Antonio Gibson (Washington) – Finally I am considering someone on Washington. But this is only on DraftKings because the way to attack the Rams is with a pass catching RB and Gibson should be able to get 5 catches, 50 all purpose yards and get you a nice 2x+ return on DK.
Not touching: Mike Davis and Todd Gurley
WIDE RECEIVERS
Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (Ravens)
The Ravens have made sure to get Brown the football more consistently this season with 6 or more targets in each of their four games this year. His big play ability and reasonable mid-range price tags make him a favorite of mine in one of the top projected games this Sunday.
CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys)
Cooper will get shadow coverage from Bradberry, the Cowboys game plan is Zeke and Lamb, that should be it this week.
High Chalk & Contrarian Pivots
D.J. Moore, pivot to Curtis Samuel (Panthers)
I love both Moore and Curtis Samuel but I don’t project this to be as high scoring as everyone else is. Gut call says that Curtis Samuel is your fantastic pivot of the week off D.J. Moore but if you think Moore is getting shutout I got news for you — he isn’t. But Samuel scores the touchdown here in a game that moves quickly as both teams try to run the ball (but without big plays).
DeAndre Hopkins, pivot to Cristian Kirk (Cardinals)
Hinted on this above, we should see Kyler spread the ball around without any challenges this weekend. Hopkins in line for 10+ catches against a bad Jets secondary, while Kirk offers your home run threat play.
OTHERS WHO GRADE OUT WELL
- Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster (Steelers)
- Golden Tate (Giants) – He owns the Cowboys and has always been a fantastic turf player.
- A.J. Green (Bengals)
- Hunter Renfrow (Raiders)
VALUE SLEEPERS
- Auden Tate (Bengals) – With me expecting 40 passing attemps from Burrow we have to find his 3rd/4th reads to potentially have big games and Tate is the sleeper bomb TD call this week.
- James Washington (Steelers) – All the love is on Ju-Ju out of the slot, but don’t be shocked when James Washington blows past a slow Eagles secondary like Ayuik did on the edge last week.
- Olamide Zaccheaus (Falcons) – Former UVA RB/WR who has to be involved more for the Falcons. At min price $3,000 he’ll be on radar this week.
Not touching: Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, Tyreek Hill
TIGHT ENDS
This is a week that we finally have some really good Tight End options. Do not punt this position and give lots of consideration to using two on DraftKings.
Evan Engram (Giants)
His volume and reliability for Daniel Jones is greatly increasing. Engram feasted on the Cowboys last year with 22 targets, 17 receptions and over 150 combined yards in two games against Dallas. The Cowboys remain a defense that is yielding points to Tight Ends and should be immediately targeted here this weekend again.
Darren Waller (Raiders)
Oakland has three main horses they will rely upon this weekend vs KC. Jacobs, Renfrow and Waller. Volume alone makes him an elite play and someone I am definitely in favor of using in a 2 Tight End lineup with Engram.
Tyler Higbee (Rams)
The Rams got Gerald Everett a touchdown last week and he repaid them with a fumble later on. So right back to Tyler Higbee in my mind as the main TE target. With the Rams likely having a full running game back in action, we’ll see more play action passing to the Tight Ends this week.
TE Darts: None. You need one of the good TE this week.
Not touching: Travis Kelce. This is one of my fades this week, I prefer the other 3 guys above too much for me to take Kelce’s chalk when I have so much Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
TEAM DEFENSES
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have 12 sacks in two home games against offenses that are on par with the Eagles in Houston and Denver. Philadelphia remains banged up on their offensive line and is coming into a back to back road game off a west coast primetime game. On the flip side, the Steelers D got an early BYE week and I expect them to be a solid play here sacking Wentz 4 or more times this weekend.
San Francisco 49ers
While the 9ers haven’t been as DOMINANT defensively this year, they are still pretty good and should have no issues slowing down Fitzmagic this weekend. Expect them to get a defensive touchdown.
Sleeper: Houston Texans
Questions and Answers
It’s back! The analysis you never knew you needed. The Questions and Answers that I anticipate you asking even though you haven’t actually asked it yet…
QUESTION: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it Josh Allen, Kyler Murray
The flow of the schedule and pricing has given us a week where Daniel Jones, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyle Allen are all relevant names in DFS this weekend. You combine that with Patrick Mahomes, Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson at home in very high over/under games and just like that the Quarterback ownership is eaten up with Kyler Murray around 5% owned. As a rushing Quarterback, Murray had a fine game last weekend he just didn’t score. Box score watchers will see a sub 200 yard passing game but Kyler’s value in DFS has always been attributed to his legs. He ran well last week between the 20’s, but didn’t bother to run inside the red zone (1 attempt for 7 yards) as he went 7-7 passing with 3 short touchdown passes. Carolina is much quicker defensively than the Jets, who will try to blitz Kyler too much and wind up allowing him to slip through for a big rushing day and a score. He’s being overlooked.
QUESTION: Random off the wall prediction?
Kyle Allen gets injured, which leads to Alex Smith coming into the game and almost pulling off an upset for Washington.
QUESTION: What’s the game you do not have a lot of players in which scares you to go off?
Honestly none? The biggest fear I have this weekend is that a typhoon comes in and washes out the Cincinnati/Baltimore game. But if there’s one team who is itching to just blow up offensively and nobody see’s it coming it’s the San Francisco 49ers rushing for 300 yards on the Miami Dolphins this weekend.
QUESTION: Favorite Bets of the week?
- Colts/Browns UNDER 47
- 49ers (-9)
- Cincinnati (+13)
QUESTION: Lots of primetime and showdown slates coming up. Thoughts on the SNF, MNF, TuNF games?
I wish there was a MNF-TNF slate this week and hopefully there is, but knowing both sites they want to keep the slates short and we just get a MNF two game slate and then the Tuesday only slate. My favorite play of the entire week is Derrick Henry to go off for the Titans, so he’s a no brainer Captain for me on Tuesday.
Good luck!