Welcome to Week 6 – The NFL Ambush, a full guide into this weekends NFL DFS Main Slate of action to help you become a better player and find some success.
Full transparency as always, I think any user who experienced an outage last week in live scoring in Daily Fantasy really got the short end of the stick. The rake that is paid on the DFS sites as it pertains to keeping them in business is part of the user experience for playing Daily Fantasy for cash prizes. If we wanted to play DFS for money without knowing ownership or seeing live scoring then we could all just put our entries into a spreadsheet and make the person who came in last place the previous week be on the hook for manually pulling box score logs. I wouldn’t be shocked if that was a faster experience than some of the poor live scoring fixes from this past weekend. While I understand that there are regulations on ensuring proper stats being fed in from a third party it does not excuse them for not having a backup plan. A single point of failure is the most common thing an Operations organization focuses on ensuring they have a contingency plan in place for. We saw that with DraftKings getting NFL live scoring up once they realized there was a problem late Friday night and thus caused all CFB scoring on Saturday to be down.
But the shaft that users are getting when we paid for a service we did not receive is borderline fraudulent. Consider this for a moment. the DFS sites have a Service Level Agreement (SLA) no doubt with third party stat providers. After all, this is the most important part of their entire business — which again points to it being kind of comical that they allowed this to be a single point of failure. That SLA I would venture to guess if it is like 99.9% of other standard SLA’s in which if a threshold of time in which they have to provide stats is exceeded then the DFS site provider does not have to pay their contract agreement or they get some money back. The stats provider in turn has some level of insurance as well to protect them in case they are hacked, stuck in ransomware, have a datacenter flood or some guy just happens to plant a set of code in the software because he is getting fired and its not detected until months later. I have seen all of these things happen at a large financial institution and guess what, they impacted every single person in some way reading this article and you never knew about it. That’s my way of saying that we understand that these things will happen, but there are contingencies and protections put in place so as not to ruin the brand of the business and certainly not to impact the end users.
A $100 site credit does not even come close to covering the amount of profit that FanDuel actually made this past weekend not only on their users, but also by being able to get out of their contractual agreement with their stats provider. So while we sit here and say man this was a BAD weekend for them, it actually might have saved their dying business from going under because they were able to likely reduce their costs because of someone else’s failure. Then again, I’m giving them a little benefit of the doubt as to being business savvy and they’re worse than the Jets when it comes to that.
SLATE INFORMATION
The first thing we must do each Week is understand the landscape of the slate and any injury or weather or miscellaneous information that we need to monitor from the time this article comes out (Saturday’s) until lock on Sunday at 1PM EST.
Weekly COVID Update
I dare say we have no PPD games as of now? I’m sure I totally just jinxed it, but hey, we can hope?
Injuries and Playing Time Concerns
Since my article is being posted on Saturday afternoon’s I am not going to mess with guys who are ruled OUT as of Friday — because you likely already know this by now. Here’s the notable injuries and my thoughts on the players status as well as the impact of them playing or not.
There are no injury situations which I am monitoring either this weekend. Julio Jones is a full go for Atlanta and carries no injury designation, which is funny because Julio Jones in Italian means “Injury Designation”. But in all seriousness, I am assuming any guys who are trending as questionable/probable are going to play and my analysis this week landed me on mostly fully healthy guys who are 100% expected to play.
Weather Status
No concerns, which is very nice as well.
So no COVID, no injuries, no weather. Shoot, this looks like a fantastic clean weekend and the only thing that could go wrong would be me liking both Kirk Cousins and Cam Newton and what are the chances of that happening?
Projected Ownership
The most spread out ownership projections I have seen in quite some time. I literally think that I have heard justification for almost every single team this week except for maybe Washington as being good plays in DFS. In some ways this is fantastic because it’s better than weeks when you have 40% ownership at every single position on the top players. However, I don’t always trust the projections on ownership on weeks like this as we get closer to Sunday everyone winds up on the same plays.
QB Chalk – Matt Ryan, Deshaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Matt Stafford
What is funny about the projected QB ownership is that in the case of Ryan and Watson their top WR are not popular at all this weekend. As always, QB ownership does not matter and those who are asking for a low owned Quarterback are doing DFS wrong. Ignore the Quarterback chalk 90% of the time because it never matters so long as your QB doesn’t put up a Joe Burrow (hey now!).
RB Chalk – Alexander Mattison, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery, David Johnson, Mike Davis
Last Sunday night when Dalvin Cook went down and everyone googled the Vikings next opponent there was a thought he would be 80% owned this weekend. I don’t think it comes in that high even in double-up and 50/50 contests because he was priced appropriately on most sites.
WR Chalk – AJ Brown, Davante Adams, Kenny Golladay, Terry McLaurin, Adam Thielen, Calvin Ridley, Marvin Jones Jr.
This is the deepest position this weekend, but not in terms of lock value plays, more that mid range is very deep.
TE Chalk – Jonnu Smith, Mark Andrews, Irv Smith Jr
Very clear cut in terms of the ownership at TE
CHALKY TEAMS – Vikings, Titans, Lions
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
AARON JONES
Ambush Play #1 – Aaron Jones, contrarian stud RB of the week.
Trust me, the water is warm my friends so jump on in. We are better off taking a left turn this week at the Running Back spot and we should not be doing it with a value RB who has to hit a home run this week because there are just too many guys who are going to get a good amount of volume like Davis, Montgomery, Henry and Mattison. All of which are popular and all of which I most certainly expect to finish between 12 and 18 fantasy points. But I want the 24 point guy and to get there we have to count on touchdowns, which will have to come from a solid offense with a reliable QB who can move them into the red zone. That’s Green Bay this weekend.
The story nobody has talked about is Bucs NT Vita Vea being placed on IR this weekend and that is an absolute dagger to their 3-4 defensive scheme which has been STOUT against the run. The reason they are so good against the run is because they don’t give up anything on the interior with Vea & Suh being the stout run defenders who just would destroy an OL allowing their elite LB’s Lavonte David and Devin White to fly to the ball untouched. Losing Vea is a huge loss for them and I trust it opens up plenty of holes for Aaron Jones to not have a dominant rushing day, but good enough. Can he get 80 yards rushing and 30 yards receiving against this defense now? Absolutely. But the big bonus here is Jones getting the short yardage touchdowns in a game that may not shoot the moon, but definitely will have both teams in the mid 20’s offensively and the contrarian star to get it done is Mr. Jones.
Expectations: Jones has 100 total yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns, pushing him over 20 fantasy points.
BULLDOG!
Ambush Play #2 – Stafford, Golladay, Jones
A lot of people might feel that Matthew Stafford and the Lions offense has been under performing this season. However, he has not necessarily had the easiest of schedules so far facing Chicago, Green Bay, at Arizona and then hosting New Orleans. As expected, he wound up going over 20 DK points in both games against the Cardinals and Saints but has seen his yard per game diminish from a 297 total in week one against Chicago. One thing that has been a big challenge for the Lions is that they cannot pass protect and Stafford has taken 11 sacks the last three weeks combined. But great news, he now faces the worst pass rush in the league in Jacksonville who comes in averaging just 1 sack per game. This should be a smash spot for Stafford, who has a healthy Kenny Golladay as his #1 WR and a big time due for a big week Marvin Jones Jr as well to just shred the Jaguars. The Florida native who went to school in Georgia should enjoy a fantastic Sunday in sunny Jacksonville going over 300 yards and accounting for 3 passing touchdowns.. And yes, I know that they drafted another Georgia Dog in De’Andre Swift but the way the RB’s are used there he’s likely to get his on a passing TD from Stafford.
Expectations: Stafford pushes near 300 yards and accounts for 3 touchdowns which at his price is all we need.
JONNU SMITH
Ambush Play #3 – The new smash TE is Jonnu Smith, same as the old smash TE
The Titans offense went OFF on Tuesday night against Buffalo and many are rushing back to them on a short week against the Houston Texans. But not enough folks are on Jonnu Smith, who is a MAJOR problem for defenses now that A.J. Brown is back and fully healthy. The Titans have three guys who create major match-up problems for defenses in Henry, Brown and Smith but given that they’re facing one of the worst DEF vs TE in the league in Houston, it’s a clear as day play for us in DFS this weekend.
Derrick Henry is a November/December back but obviously is good in this spot on paper and A.J. Brown certainly looks like a good play here too — but we make our winnings in DFS by understanding position depth and WR is a spot that has plenty of other options where as TE to me is a 3 player position this weekend and I wan’t none of the Irv Smith 2 catch chalk at $2,500. Instead, go to the Smith that is going to once again get it done in Jonnu Smith.
Expectations: This isn’t a huge day from Jonnu, but 5 catches, 60 yards and a score later you’ll say damn, I wish I had Jonnu and not Henry or AJ Brown.
CATCH ME IF YOU CAN
Ambush Play #4 – High upside WR’s who can take it to the house weekend.
I mentioned above that the WR position is the one which has the most depth this weekend and that a lot of that falls in the mid range. As a reminder, WR more than any other position is the one that usually has to be evaluated differently between a half point PPR site and a full point PPR site. In other words, you are FAR better off taking someone like Marvin Jones Jr who will catch a bunch of 5-9 yard passes on DraftKings at his price there than you are to take him on FanDuel when the TD machine Kenny Golladay is likely to go off there for the Lions. But as we search around looking at some one off WR’s, I find that there are some guys who can hit paydirt on both sites because of their “big play” potential to pop off a 50 yarder which, let’s be honest if a guy gets a 50 yard touchdown and he also happens to be the teams #1 WR then you’ll want him on any DFS site — no matter how bad their live scoring is. This weekend there are three guys who stand out to me and they’re all one offs from their teams and as we go deeper and we can rank them from popular to longshot as well.
#1) Will Fuller – Houston Texans: Someone who was out for Buffalo on Tuesday night was John Brown and he would have been a big play threat for the Bills offense against an aggressive but kind of slow secondary in Tennessee. This week the Titans are going to have a hard time finding a way to keep Fuller from breaking one and so long as he remains healthy this is the only WR option I expect DeShaun Watson to have much consistent success with. I love Fuller to get over 100 yards receiving.
#2) Ju-Ju Smith Schuster – Pittsburgh Steelers: To me this is going to be a physical, beat each other up game between two teams that certainly don’t love each other that much and are both trying to stake their claim as the kings of the AFC North this year. Without Diontae Johnson for the full game and without being able to face a clueless Eagles secondary this week, Big Ben is going to have to go back to his main guy and it’s been too long since we had a JuJu take one to the house play. I have this game going under it’s high total but the Steelers offense should have some success here and to me it’s a sneaky James Conner who quite frankly isn’t that good or JuJu breaking off a big play. For DFS purposes, give me all the good Ju-Ju.
#3) T.Y. Hilton – Indianapolis Colts: Here’s the longshot of the bunch. Hilton hasn’t had a 100 yard game since Andrew Luck was at Quarterback, but the wheel is getting very squeaky in Indianapolis. I understand Rivers is not someone who can get the ball deep down field with accuracy and that’s not what draws me onto this play at all. This is about Hilton getting the ball more often and getting it in space to burn a below average Bengals secondary.
Expectation: Fuller, Smith-Schuster and Hilton all have 40+ yard touchdowns.
ROLL THE DICE ON DEFENSE
Ambush Play #5 – Defense is extremely random this week
There are a couple of path’s you can follow with selecting a defense. The one I love to follow is finding a defense who is going to generate pressure on the Quarterback to solidify sack upside and is usually playing at home. In 2020, playing at home hasn’t meant as much in this regard and with the way teams are priced in Week 6 it’s a little tough to follow the path to a clear cut choice. Teams like New England, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis all grade out well in my selection criteria but none of them are leaping off the page to me. Tennessee is another one that stands out facing Watson who takes lots of sacks, but coming off a short week has me a little unsure on them as well. So let’s take some gambles because I just don’t want to rely upon the Dolphins defense again this week and I sure as heck am not playing the NY Giants defense either. So my roll the dice position this week is going to be team defense and I am going to focus on attacking a bad offense who could turn it over rather than ensuring I have a defense who themselves is quality.
Expectation: None of the high priced popular defenses score a TD and thus my roll the dice here isn’t costly.
RECAP OF AMBUSH PLAYS
- Aaron Jones, come on down, have a party at the pirate ship and loot some tournaments.
- Matthew Stafford will get it done enough to be a winning QB in DFS
- TE is thin, so take Jonnu Smith and move on
- Contrarian sleeper one off WR’s: Fuller, Smith-Schuster, Hilton.
- Roll the dice on Defense.
QUARTERBACKS
Matt Stafford
If you have followed me for a while then you know that I am telling the truth when I say that Matthew Stafford is my only QB this weekend. This is because I always play who I write up and well, I just don’t play the next guy out of spite.
Cam Newton
Cam is DFS relevant when he is at home, facing a bad team and can rush a couple touchdowns in. That’s how this game sets up for me and the Patriots should thump the Broncos allowing Cam to just compile stats and sneak his name back into the conversation as a top end QB.
Just missed my top 2: Kirk Cousins, Gardner Minshew
Not touching: Lamar Jackson, Ryan Fitzpatrick
RUNNING BACKS
Normally I find myself loving B level running backs who are at home. But this week there’s a couple road guys who stand out above the rest.
Aaron Jones
Outlined above why he is a top play on the slate. His floor is around 14 points and that is without a touchdown. He may not have a better chance to roll for three touchdowns than this weekend.
David Montgomery
Great match-up and a criminal job on his pricing this weekend. Take the free square and move on.
Alexander Mattison
Everyone wants to rush to Mattison with the perception that he was going to be priced like a back-up, but he isn’t. The value is more on DraftKings where he might catch a few passes boosting his value considering Atlanta remains bad at denying receptions to opposing RB’s.
Just outside the top 3
Mike Davis
I keep hearing all this talk about how Davis is replacing CMC because of the “system”. You guys do realize that the Panthers changed their offensive system in the off-season right? If CMC was playing still he would be doing twice the damage that slow Mike Davis is doing. So yes, it is the system, but it’s an even BETTER system for RB who can catch the ball and do things in space. Davis is benefiting from a zone read, get the ball out quick methodology. He remains only a DraftKings play for me because $7,500 for him on FanDuel is just too expensive there. But he’s their only hope vs Chicago this weekend.
Just missed the cut: Jonathan Taylor, Ronald Jones/Leonard Fournette (hard to trust either one)
Not touching: Derrick Henry, Myles Gaskin
WIDE RECEIVERS
Kenny Golladay & Marvin Jones Jr.
For those who love to go all in with a stack you should pair them both together with Stafford. For those who like to optimize your lineup to be balanced and the best all around then play Golladay on FD and Jones on DK, or get weird and flip that around. The point is that both are 1a and 1b for me this weekend.
Will Fuller
Outlined his potential up above and he would rank #1 out of the three guys I mentioned.
Laviska Shenault
The true #1 WR in Jacksonville now based on snaps, targets and even how they are using him in the red zone too. The Jags are getting him the ball in many ways and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get a jet sweep rushing touchdown at some point soon too.
Mid Range One Offs
- Ju-Ju Smith Schuster – Outlined him above.
- T.Y. Hilton – Outlined him above
- Davante Parker – This game is one that I am not rushing towards and it’s a let down spot for the Dolphins IMO. But Parker continually gets it done and should serve well again this week.
- N’Keal Harry – Cam’s redzone target.
VALUE SLEEPERS
You do not need to go here this week but here’s some off the wall long-shot calls none the less
- Anthony Miller (Bears) – There’s plenty of love for Allen Robinson now that Nick Foles is at QB, but Rasul Douglas has good history against Robinson from last year when he held him to one catch while with the Eagles. So when the Bears do try to get it done through the air I’ll look to the slot man Anthony Miller to get it done.
- Braxton Berrios (Jets) – Brain says Jeff Smith at $3,000 coming off an 11 target game is more likely to hit value. Gut says the former Miami Hurricane Braxton Berrios breaks one drawing a lesser CB from the Dolphins
Not touching: Calvin Ridley
TIGHT ENDS
No reason to list 8 guys here.
Jonnu Smith
Houston has not been great at defending Tight End’s and he is arguably their #2 WR. Nothing to hate about Jonnu this week.
Mark Andrews
Without Kelce or Kittle on this slate it’s Mark Andrews who remains as the only elite TE to consider. He’s the best option for Lamar Jackson because Jackson needs a big target to have any success at completing passes this year. The Eagles are getting shredded by tight ends and Andrews is in line to easily hit value this weekend. I am very much in favor of playing 2 TE on DraftKings this week with Smith/Andrews being the combination.
Zach Ertz
We can say what we want about the fact that Ertz is no longer the best TE on the Eagles and it’s true. But he’s also only $5,000 on DraftKings this weekend and there will be a drive in this game where Wentz makes adjustments and forces him the ball for about 5 catches and 62 yards on the drive alone. I would not invest in Ertz as a long term play for the rest of the season, but there’s no better time to jump on him for a get right game against a tough opponent.
TE Darts: None
Not touching: Irv Smith Jr
TEAM DEFENSES
An astute reader would notice that I said take some gambles on defenses above yet I didn’t point any out. So, here ya go.
Chicago Bears
Extended break and they play really well up close to the line of scrimmage. Bridgewater was able to beat the Bears last season while with New Orleans but the Bears did not have Akiem Hicks in that game and all the damage was done on the ground. Bears should get a few sacks and a couple turnovers.
Philadelphia Eagles
Rushing Quarterbacks generate opportunities for more defensive sacks when the official scorer can’t make up his mind if it was a designed run or not. Eagles will finish this game with 5 sacks, book it.
Minnesota Vikings
Atlanta’s O-Line is terrible and when Matt Ryan gets more freedom to call plays he throws INT’s.
Best of the higher priced defenses: Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots
Questions and Answers
It’s back! The analysis you never knew you needed. The Questions and Answers that I anticipate you asking even though you haven’t actually asked it yet…
QUESTION: Who is getting overlooked this week?
Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Yes, I am going right back here because last weekends game in Baltimore appeared to be a spot where the Bengals game plan was to just not get him killed and to get out of town alive. I take the big fat L on that and going into Indianpolis isn’t a cake walk either considering how much Burrow has been under pressure with a bad offensive line. However, on the turf and with no rain issues this week we could see this game come in as a sneaky shootout. Which just feels weird to say considering how slow the Colts play on offense, but a Burrow-Boyd-Hilton-Taylor game stack should be considered.
QUESTION: Random off the wall prediction?
Jets win and if they don’t I will hear it from Dolphins fans. If they do, I will still hear it from Dolphins fans.
QUESTION: What’s the game you do not have a lot of players in which scares you to go off?
Browns at Steelers. I’m mostly worried that there are non stop turnovers and 15 yard unnecessary roughness penalties which results in 80% of the game being played from within the red-zone on both ends of the field.
QUESTION: Favorite Bets of the week?
Jets ML
Vikings -4
Browns/Steelers UNDER 51
Good luck!