I have some pretty definitive feelings on a good number of these spreads this week, so the team I would lean on the spread is listed in bold — that does not mean that they’re the automatic DFS play because pricing and match-up flow matters more for that.
TOP TIER GAMES
67: Virginia Tech (-3.5) at Louisville
65: LSU (-3) at Auburn
64: Ole Miss (-16.5) at Vanderbilt
58: Texas at Oklahoma State (-3.5)
55: Memphis at Cincinnati (-6.5)
MID RANGE GAMES
52: Indiana (-10.5) at Rutgers
And by mid range, I mean, there’s dirt cheap guys for DFS, otherwise ew.
57: Notre Dame (-20) at Georgia Tech
Classic look ahead trap spot for Notre Dame with Clemson on the schedule next week. Georgia Tech has talent to do damage.
O46: Kansas State at West Virginia (-3.5)
Really like the over in this game as I expect the WVU offense to be clicking.
GAMES THAT I HAVE LITTLE TO NO INTEREST IN
61: Boston College at Clemson (-31)
Clemson has Notre Dame next week and should dominate this game defensively.
52: Iowa State (-28.5) at Kansas
Not even bothering to look into these games
Michigan State vs Michigan
Georgia vs Kentucky
TOP GAMES OF THE DAY
CFB is generally very chalky in relation to the over/under projections because there’s good reason for them tied to offenses generally being one dimensional, so the choice on these top games is if you go all in, balance them all out, or fade one and mix in the appropriate one offs.
There’s no easy button back and forth 70+ point game again this week and that is a great thing. There are definitely some games which are going to be back and forth and it’s a very deep slate in terms of balanced match-ups.
Favorite Game
Texas at Oklahoma State (-3.5)
Alright, I think both teams are ready to turn this into a shootout. The challenge in this game lies on the Texas side of the ball where you gotta bite the bullet to pay $9,900 on Sam Ehlinger and hope he rushes two in (which he is very capable of doing). He has accounted for 4 touchdowns in each of the prior two games against Ok. State and as a Senior QB this year he’s always going to be a solid play no matter where and who he is playing. He’s by far the #1 raw point projected QB for me this week but it’s a matter of finding value elsewhere to lock him in. Pairing Ehlinger with one of his WR makes a ton of sense and there’s about four to five viable options as the ball is spread around a ton via the short passing game. Jake Smith should finally get that big PPR game everyone has been waiting for though this week and at $4,800 he’s a logical play.
Fortunately, DraftKings has made finding that value VERY easy because we can stay in the same game and look at Spencer Sanders for $6,600. Sanders really came on last week as he was able to finally get a full game against Iowa State under his belt and as the game wore on he became more and more confident in rushing the ball. I would only play Sanders WITH Ehlinger because quick scores from Texas is what will drive Sanders to have a ceiling game. He’s gonna have to lean on stud WR Tylan Wallace for big plays this week.
Texas: Sam Ehlinger, Jake Smith
Oklahoma State: Spencer Sanders, Tylan Wallace
Next Best Spots
Virginia Tech (-3.5) at Louisville
The Hokies should be able to run all over the Cardinals defense and with a one two punch of QB Hendon Hooker and RB Khalil Herbert they have the combination to rack up 200 yards on the ground in a likely late afternoon shootout. Louisville RB Javian Hawkins has really turned into a top tier fantasy running back and should get 19+ carries at home in this game which puts him near the 100 yard mark as well. The guy who stands out most though in this game is WR Tutu Atwell, his $6,800 price for a 31% target share with 5 TD on the season seems like it’s just right for being a solid own on this slate. Not a must own, but a solid own. Yes, I just made that phrase up and I am sticking with it.
VT: Hooker, Herbert
Louisville: Cunningham, Hawkins, Atwell
Sneaky Game
Notre Dame (-20) at Georgia Tech
I like the Rambling Wreck to cover that 20 point spread behind their young QB-RB duo of Jeff Simms ($5,500) and Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,200). This is a classic trap spot for Notre Dame going on the road with a big spread and having a huge marquee game against #1 Clemson next week. I expect Kyren Williams to have to do the damage for the Irish and he’s gotten enough passing game volume to warrant a nice reception game on the road for his price as well.
Notre Dame: Kyren Williams
Georgia Tech: Jeff Simms, Jahmyr Gibbs
MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS
QUARTERBACKS
You DO NOT need to force 2 Quarterbacks in on DraftKings this week!
Sam Ehlinger … The Oklahoma St defense hasn’t faced an offense that moves like Texas, he will get his and he will rush for 2 TD.
Spencer Sanders … Still too cheap due to missing a few games. Texas can be passed on by anyone and he’s the best value Quarterback on the slate.
Bo Nix … Yep, we’re riding the Nix train again. Welcoming in LSU should give him a nice floor.
Ian Book / Jeff Simms (ND vs GT) … Would prefer to get both together for a game stack here, but Book at $7,000 is likely a very chalky play today who should put up good numbers. My preference is to get exposure to the Irish through Kyren Williams.
RUNNING BACKS
Entire slate is deep everywhere this week and that is true at RB where I can envision about 7 or 8 running backs going over 20 fantasy points this weekend. Many of them are on the road which reduces the probability of them dominating but at the same time these are mostly primary RB so even being on the road isn’t ask risky for me (I generally prefer home guys).
So the bottom line at Running Back? Don’t overthink it and make sure that you have confidence in your QB-WR builds and then fill in with these options, but at the same time I wouldn’t stray off the pack at RB.
My Favorites
Kyren Williams (ND): Like him to catch a few passes on the road and to have a consistent volume game on the road. His $7,200 price tag makes it easier to get the better of the WR options this week.
Javian Hawkins (Louisville): Has another good match-up against Virginia Tech’s rush defense this week which has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns on the season. He went off last week and should do just fine for you again this week.
Leddie Brown (WVU): 5% owned Elite RB1. The over/under in Morgantown is sub 50 which will drive everyone away from this spot, but Brown is averaging 5.80 YPC and gets 11% of the targets for the WVU offense. In a game which should be close and against a Kansas St. defense who likely is going to regress statistically on defense we have an opportunity to get some really good leverage on the field with a stud instead of trying to get cute with a timeshare situation. Brown’s their guy in close games and will see a ton of volume as he has all season long.
Also in play because of smash spots
Breece Hall (Iowa State): Coming off a low owned huge game against Oklahoma State and now he draws the worst rush defense in the Big 12 in Kansas. Would be a major upset if he didn’t finish with 150 and a touchdown.
Khalil Herbert (Virginia Tech): Coming off his first sub 100 yard rushing game of the season last week in a game that just died in the second half. Nice spot to bounce back this week.
Tank Bigsby (Auburn): The better value IMO is going to be with Anthony Schwartz but LSU hasn’t exactly been stopping people on the ground either, but read what I say about Schwartz below. I’d go Tank in a gamestack scenario mostly or if you need a little discount.
Longshot value plays:
Lyn-J Dixon (Clemson): With Etienne getting banged up a little bit during the game last week and Clemson also having a look ahead, we could see Dixon get a few more carries in a game their defense will dominate and give them short fields to roll in. He is only $3,300 and it’s a near punt play who I expect to get a floor of 2x and that’s without a touchdown — which he definitely can get.
FADES
Travis Etienne: I’m taking the stance that Clemson wins this with their defense and in the second half we see more Lyn-J Dixon.
Chuba Hubbard: Love the air attack, wouldn’t hate using him in a game stack but not rushing to get him in my main lineup.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Tylan Wallace (Oklahoma State) … Iowa State was very physical with him last week and drew a bunch of PI, otherwise he would be coming off a massive game and the whole world would be rushing to him again this week. While he will be popular I don’t think he will be high enough. All he did last time Texas came into Stillwater was drop 10 for 222 and 2 TD. He still has that potential and you’ll need one of him or Hubbard — my flag is planted with Wallace.
Elijah Moore (Ole Miss) … This has the makings of a 170 yard, 3 TD game for Moore. Very similar to the game that J’Marr Chase rolled up on Vanderbilt last season only not quite as insane. Obviously you will have a very difficult time getting Moore + Texas/OK State game stack in, but if you do go cheap at RB you can make it work
Tutu Atwell (Louisville) … Love me some Tutu each and every week. At $6,800 you are getting 31% target share against a defense allowing 61% completion percentage on the season and Louisville throws it enough to project him for 6 receptions and 83 yards. If the game has big plays then the possession volume bumps up and he can get the 100 yard bonus.
Anthony Schwartz (Auburn) … Quick screen to Schwartz and then he takes it to the house. Lock of the fucking week. LSU will focus on shutting down Seth Williams in the passing game and I also think LSU is going to be extremely run heavy in an attempt to slow this game down. So take the value of Schwartz at $4,900, enjoy his ~10 targets and watch the speedster fly as LSU has given up a crap ton of touchdowns to opposing WR this year. Don’t fade him.
Whoop Philyor (Indiana) … The whole world should be expecting a little Indiana let down this week right? Wellllll, they get to play Rutgers. As Chris Berman would say, Whoop! Hoosier chalk, I’m not going there that much.
Value WR:
Dez Fitzpatrick (UL) … Best pivot off Tutu Atwell for only $3,900
Bryce Ford-Wheaton (WV) / Sam James (WV)
Dillon Stoner (OKST) … Let’s try it again
Alec Pierce (Cincy) … Should be a game that is a bit of a let down but one you can consider a value one off in.
Tommy Tremble (ND)
CORE BUILD
Spencer Sanders
Kyren Williams
Tylan Wallace
Anthony Schwartz
Lineup Construction Thought …
The temptation is always to game stack in College Football DFS, but this week I would caution you to look at just stacking two teams together rather than a single game. We sometimes get caught up in forcing a game stack because of the correlation while ignoring the fact that the pricing might not allow for the proper balance of one offs. Prime example is Ehlinger + Sanders + Wallace is going to really make it tough at RB to get plenty of solid plays there.
But say you go Ehlinger + Texas WR and pair them with Louisville stack where Dez Fitzpatrick is a nice value WR. Just one example, but don’t force a gamestack just because you want all your eggs in one basket.