Jaguars

OU: 48

• Don’t pick Ben on the road, so the passing game will be limited.
• James Conner and the Pittsburgh Defense.
• Nothing from Jacksonville, shot their load in Green Bay last week.
• Too many things last week pointed against Conner.  Used data to get off players.
• Pittsburgh defense scores, Jake Luton is going to hate life.
• T.J. Watt is going to have 3 sacks.
• Minkah Fitzpatrick on the Eagles.  He is good.

• It is a look ahead spot for the Steelers, so maybe that is one way this doesn’t finish 38-10?
• Jaguars allowing second highest completion % on the season to opposing teams.
• So factor in the price, target share, etc. to pick a Steelers WR.
• Or just play through Ben finishing with 320 yards and 3 touchdowns as your QB
• Probably a Steelers RB runs one in.  Could see the Steelers D being the killer in this game as they create short fields which limits the yardage upside for the Steelers offense and so Pittsburgh doesn’t completely blow up the slate, they just do okay.
• Jacksonville offense has nothing that seems desirable.

Panthers

OU:  49

• Mike Davis left.  Mike Davis right.  Mike Davis up the middle
• Mike Davis around the side for a TD.
• Robbie Anderson, Robbie Anderson, Robbie Anderson,
• This game is fucking boring.
• Carolina wins rather easily
• Adrian Peterson 32 yard TD run
• Robbie & Mike Davis cash game recommendations.
• If Stafford plays – Hockenson scores and should be recommended.

• Have to like D’Andre Swift.  But not as much if Stafford sits.
• I really don’t like this game.  Both teams feel very banged up to me.
• Marvin Jones Jr should be popular this week but whenever he is popular he seems to flop.
• Don’t love a ton on the Carolina side.
• Just feel like this game dies.
• 16-13, throwback Carolina game.

Texans

OU: 47

• Like Watson a lot.
• Like Watson a lot.
• Watson to somebody, dont know who the somebody is but take Watson
• Don’t like anything on the New England side.
• Cannot pay me to play anyone on NE.  Very predictive right now, Ravens win was predictable and they take a step back.
• Nothing to like on NE
• Jakobi Meyers will flop as a value play
• Dont do it.
• Don’t fall for the New England value.  Take Watson and go.

• I’ll pass.
• Houston destroys them
• DeShaun Watson is squarely in play where nobody will be considering him.  I feel like Watson thrives against the Patriots and depending on health of the NE secondary, he could have a huge day with Fuller/Cooks.  Oh.  Cobb scores.  Randall Cobb scores a 27 yard touchdown.
• Watson rushes one in from the 5.
• Watson winds up at the top of the leaderboard and everyones like –  yeah well, he just does it every week because he is DeShaun Watson.
• This will be the 51st consecutive week I do not try to figure out NE running backs.

Ravens

OU: 49

• Interesting matchup
• Like A.J. Brown
• This is an interesting matchup.
• Trying to determine is this a … go all in.
• Tannehill/Brown come back with Hollywood first time, get something
• Think I am done with Hollywood because Lamar sucks
• Like A.J. Brown.
• Something here offensively not immediately seeing.
• Can see where both offenses thrive even though Lamar blows.
• Definitely like A.J. Brown, not a Derrick Henry game – even though he is a 5% owned stud.
• Even though Damien Harris ran all over Baltimore, just not feeling it.
• AJ Brown definitely going to score.
• Offense in this game.
• Tennessee defense is not as good as thought early in year.  Opportunity for Baltimore to do things but Lamar Jackson does suck.
• Tennessee offense is really that good but Ravens DST is alive.
• 34-31 final or TEN wins 20-17.  No in between finishing with a 24-23, 47 point total.  Really good or blah.
• Leaning really good, just cannot see where it’s coming from.
• This feels like two weeks ago … (Raiders vs Chargers) … same feeling
• AJ Brown

• The no Taylor Lewan trend for Tennessee is looking very real….
• However
• Love this game.  Love.  Love.  Love it.
• I can definitely smell a shootout.
• Mark … Ingram … II scores.   But is UNDER 100 yards
• Derrick … Henry … scores.   And goes OVER 100 yards.
• It’s an ALA-BAMA Heisman game.
• Oh.  Oh.  We have a Hollywood sighting.  It’s a big play for Hollywood
• We have a Mark Andrews sighting.  It’s a short touchdown for Andrews
• Yeah, Lamar will have a 20+ fantasy point game.  Dont think he rushes one in though.
• Titans get a good game from Henry.  You can run on Baltimore.
• Not sure there’s enough from AJ Brown to trust it, but in a shootout you’d have to like AJ Brown.
• This game will be high scoring assuming weather isn’t a disaster.  Both teams need a win.  Both teams play aggressive.

Browns

OU:  48

• This will be a 3 point game
• Jarvis Landry catches 12 balls if he is lined up in the slot and avoiding Darius Slay he will catch 12 balls this week.
• This game will be a 3 point victory for a team.
• Everyone down on Eagles and natural pick is Cleveland.
• 3 point lower scoring game….
• Staying true to what was said.  Eagles win 24-21 because coming out of BYE they would struggle and get shelled and this is 5 to 6 inning performance and next week is the blow up game.
• Eagles D settles down and plays well defensively
• Dallas Goeddert scores – Ertz is practicing.  Dallas G scores.
• Jarvis Landry and Dallas are the pieces in this game.
• Game finishes under, 3 point game.

• Miles Sanders, 167 all purpose yards and 2 touchdowns
• At least 50 of those, if not 70 of them are through the air.
• So yes, Carson Wentz will have a good statistical day.  He’ll also take 5 sacks and have a lost fumble in the red zone.  Wentz will get well into 300 yards and throws 2 touchdowns.
• I don’t see any Eagles WR being a must own but if priced appropriately for PPR purposes they all could be reasonable.
• With all the yards implied on the Eagles side, it implies the Browns have a good offensive day but I couldn’t pull where it comes from.  So it’s gotta be Kareem Hunt catching a bunch out of the backfield and some rando Browns WR catching a bomb from Baker.
• *GASP*
• Welcome to the NFL
• Donovan Peoples-Jones.  DPJ scores a touchdown this week.  Lock it up.
• Don’t ask who the hell wins cuz I got no clue, probably Philly on Sanders late touchdown and Eagles win a game it feels like they’re losing 30-20.

Saints

OU: 51

• This could be a bit of a dud.
• Would love for it to be a shootout and want to see entertaining games.
• Not any one given thing to desire here.
• Public is going to go Kamara and not going to go there.
• Atlanta will benefit from having BYE week on defense preparing.
• Atlanta will gameplan for Kamara accordingly
• Julio Jones is not doing a damn thing
• Matt Ryan will play well, 270 and a score.
• Latavius Murray is going to score.  He’ll get more run than everyone anticipates and score.
• If Brees was healthy this would have been the Thomas week but now its not.
• Not feeling it in this game.

• The question in this game is not what does New Orleans do.
• The question is what does Atlanta do?
• Falcons side:
• The only time Atlanta has had ANY success against New Orleans is when they blindly committed to running the ball and running end arounds/jet sweeps/etc. last season and completely killed the entire clock in the game and then ran stunts up the middle on Saints offensive line.
• Unfortunately for Atlanta, the Niners did this exact thing last week with success and it never works two weeks in a row on New Orleans.  It has to sneak up on them.  This is the only path to victory for Atlanta (well… lets not talk about the other path being their D scoring 3 times).
• It’s not Ridley, although he’ll score a short touchdown.  Jenkins will handle him.
• I am assuming whether or not Lattimore plays, Jenkins won’t shift over to Julio
• Julio will finish with 8 for 90, 0 touchdowns and a fumble.  Put that on his Tombstone.
• Lots of Matt Ryan hype in this game because of a funnel path, but that’s been the LOSING formula for Atlanta vs New Orleans.  They have to run the football and kill the clock.
• The most dominant and relatively healthy spot on the Saints defense right now is their Front 5 (D-Line + Demario Davis).  You drop back to pass 40+ times and they’ll murder Ryan.
• Saints side:
• Emmanuel Sanders and Marquez Callaway are the wild cards in this game.
• The game plan is 100% going to be get Michael Thomas the ball.  So much so that there’s a shot for Sanders or Marquez to get left WIDE THE FUCK OPEN down the middle of the field for a 67 yard touchdown.
• Michael Thomas SHOULD have 10 catches, but he wont.  Winston does not have a quick release, which limits a few easy catches for Thomas.
• Winston is all about his confidence.  First drive goes well and he’ll play great.  This is where Payton comes into play.  Scripting the first drive with a really good balance … Oh man.
• Payton’s going to pound them with Murray on the opening drive.
• I formation power behind Ramcyzk.  Mix in some sweeps to Deonte Harris.  Pound the rock.
• Dominate at the line of scrimmage.  Offensive line played like shit (interior) and will get the entire focus of attention this week in practice.  They will be challenged to have a better game.  Payton will pound it off tackle all game long against Atlanta and force the Falcons to come up and press and then he’ll mix in play action deep down the field and that’s where Callaway/Sanders or maybe Harris catch a bomb.  Have to consider Sanders or Callaway on DraftKings.
• Julio Jones 8 for 90, 0 touchdowns, 1 fumble
• Calvin Ridley scores on a 17 yard touchdown.
• Christian Blake catches 6 for 50 and a touchdown
• Matt Ryan plays well, throws for 283 yards.
• This is a very clean game by both teams.
• Well played, entertaining game.

Washington

OU: 46.5

• This game is going to be a dud / not high scoring game
• Where can I go where nobody is going to go?  Joe Burrow!
• But it’s not gonna happen
• Tyler Boyd is going to be a good safe play in this game – will get open for 8 catches.  Start your lineup on DK with Landry and Boyd its a lot of PPR
• Bengals win 23-17
• Washington not getting W last week kills them.
• Burrow accounts for 2, nothing on Washington side.
• Bengals D won’t hurt you.

• If Burrow gets time he’ll carve up the Washington secondary.
• Tyler Boyd should be back on our radar in this game.
• I would play this game over the Detroit-Carolina game for comparison sakes, but that doesn’t mean that I love this game.
• But Tyler Boyd volume game is there.  7 for 70 type performance.
• Washington offense remains the same.  Gibson-McKissic-McLaurin-Sims-Sims all spread out with scary Terry and the variance at RB being the DFS plays.  I would not say that I love any of them specifically but if you play a Boyd lineup, lock in the other side with McLaurin or Gibson I guess.
• Not a main lineup spot.

4PM ONLY GAMES

Chargers

OU: 47

• Assuming Justin Herbert cash game recommendation
• Mike Williams scores, 42 yard bomb
• blah blah blah
• 6, 72 yards and possibly a touchdown for Keenan
• blah blah blah
• Jets blow ass, missed chance vs NE
• they come out of the BYE and get crushed
• Chargers Defense Scores!  
• Sneaky plays LAC Defense and Mike Williams definitely scores.

• Do the Jets have someone who can shut down Keenan Allen?  Doesn’t feel like it.
• Kind of feels like Herbert will throw 3 touchdowns.
• One to Keenan.  One to Williams.  One to Guyton.
• There’s just so many bad fucking football teams, how does one get excited about this game?

Broncos

OU: 45

• Dan Marino vs John Elway
• Bob Greise vs Brian Greise
• Drew Lock?  KJ Hamler scores a 60 yard bomb
• Hamler best ball wins you this week.
• Noah Fant scores no doubt about it
• Denver wins the game by double digits.
• 34-24 Denver.
• Drew Lock will be 4PM Only and maybe elsewhere.
• Gotta Love DeVante Parker on the other side.  Once possibly twice.
• Lock-Fant-Parker!
• That is all.  Fireworks in this game.

• Broncos win.  Don’t ask me how though.
• DeVante Parker probably grades out as a top WR this week.
• That’s the jist of what the Dolphins will be able to do on offense.  Lots of Parker catches.
• Parker 8-116-1 in a losing effort.
• Noah Fant touchdown.
• Noah Fant 60 yard floor game.

Vikings

OU: 50

• Just lock in Dalvin Cook?  Seriously?
• Gotta love Cook, he’s gonna have 150 yards.
• If you are able to find the sneaky plays on this slate I’ll just take the guaranteed points that Cook is going to afford me.
• Other side love some Michael Gallup.
• Gallup all day long.
• Give me some Gallup.
• CeeDee Lamb rushes the ball in on an end around.
• At first was thinking Cooper, definitely Gallup.
• Cooper = Home.   Gallup = Road.
• Minnesota Defense prevents this from being a high scoring affair.
• Defense plays better at home.
• Gallup and Cook.

• Follow the bread crumbs on this game.  By that I mean lets follow the data and not the recommendations.  What’s the pace the Cowboys are playing at since Dak went down?
• What’s the target share % spread out for Jefferson/Theilen?
• Sure, Jefferson probably scores a touchdown for sure in this game.
• But someone on the Cowboys is too, the question is, will this be a game that goes over 52 points or under 46 points?  Is it high paced, high scoring or medium/slow pace, low scoring.
• Follow the projections and breadcrumbs

Colts

OU: 51

• Robert Tonyan scores
• Allen Lazard scores
• Davante Adams gets 100 yards and no touchdown, his streak is broken.
• Tonyan, Lazard and I have a feeling GB is playing behind
• Colts defense scores – early in the game
• Colts get out early 24-3 and Green Bay launches furious comeback and falls short 30-28.

• I see Jamal Williams scoring a touchdown on a swing pass top of the screen, left to right with 8:09 remaining in the second quarter.
• Rodgers will finish with 3 touchdowns.  One to Williams, one to a TE (Tonyan back?) and one to a WR who probably is related to Devante Adams because why not.
• If this game was in Green Bay I might finally consider Taylor.  But ignore Colts RB even though that is how they wind up moving the ball.
• Actually, I think the Packers RB wind up with big games

Raiders

Buccaneers