The Friday after Thanksgiving, a day when we should all be sitting at our favorite local bar watching these fantastic slate of College Football games while our spouses just go out and do whatever they want in terms of purchasing items today. That’s why we’re all entering the $333 contest right?
FRIDAY MAIN SLATE (NOON) GAMES
56.5: UMASS vs Liberty (-38) … If you don’t get up for UMASS vs LIBERTY The day after Thanksgiving then I don’t know what to tell you friends.
57.0: Iowa State vs Texas (-1.5)
52.5: Nebraska vs Iowa (-13.5)
67.0: UCF (-25) at USF
67.0: Notre Dame (-4.5) at North Carolina
52.0: Wyoming (-16.5) at UNLV
59.5: Central Michigan (-7) vs Eastern Michigan
52.0: Stanford at California (-1.5)
So yes, we have MACtion on this slate along with that tremendous Liberty vs UMass game, the UCF/USF tilt, some ACC action (sort of with Notre Dame) and some west coast football as well. It’s a perfect mix of leftovers from Thanksgiving along with all the random door buster shit that is now being thrust onto you for wrapping purposes. Because who doesn’t need a deluxe ball shaver 3000 more than your Uncle Joey?
TOP GAMES OF THE DAY
CFB is generally very chalky in relation to the over/under projections because there’s good reason for them tied to offenses generally being one dimensional, so the choice on these top games is if you go all in, balance them all out, or fade one and mix in the appropriate one offs.
Favorite Game
Iowa State at Texas (-1.5)
We have some blowout spots on this slate (Liberty, Wyoming, UCF) and then we have an classic old Big 12 sneaky shootout between the Cyclones and Longhorns. Statistically the Cyclones come in with the 30th ranked scoring defense in all of FBS but digging deeper they have allowed a 64% completion % to opposing teams this season and the only spot on Texas that is a rushing threat is Sam Ehlinger who can take off and make plays happen with his legs against any defense in my mind. This is a classic back and forth game where we have a high production from both offenses and a nice balance of salary to make it fit in a game stack scenario.
For the Cyclones, Brock Purdy went 30-48-354 and 2 touchdowns against this Longhorns defense last year and Texas has been sneaky good against the run, which should limit Breece Hall enough and get familiar with #8 on the Cyclones, Xavier Hutchinson because he is going to haul in 10 catches for 120 and 2 scores. Hutchinson has turned into a top playmaker in his first year with the Cyclones and is the clear #1 target who should be able to feast on the Longhorns secondary.
Iowa State: Brock Purdy (6700), Xavier Hutchinson (5900), Charlie Kolar (4500)
Texas: Sam Ehlinger (9000), Jake Smith (5100)
OTHER TOP TEAMS / GAMES
UCF
CMU / EMU
Nebraska / Iowa
MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS
QUARTERBACKS
We actually have a ton of QB to pick from on this slate which is nice. It’s easily the deepest of the positions.
Sam Ehlinger – Texas ($9,000) & Brock Purdy – Iowa State ($6,700)
Obviously I have a lot of love for these two in a game I think is going to finish near the top overall.
Malik Willis – Liberty ($10,300)
Willis is just so expensive but obviously justified. He has been racking up 40 and 50 point games before a dud last week on a Saturday night spot. They should blowout UMASS, so maybe that limits him from going into the 50’s but he’ll get into the upper 30’s for sure. I firmly believe Ehlinger will be right on his tails all day long though so gimme that savings.
Also don’t mind: Dillon Gabriel, Preston Huchinson
Fade: Ian Book
RUNNING BACKS
Xazavian Valladay – Wyoming ($7,900)
There aren’t a ton of Home running backs who are in elite spots this weekend so we turn to Valladay who Wyoming is likely to hand it off to 23-25 times versus a UNLV defense which gave up 5.14 YPC last year and has started off their short 2020 season giving up over 6 YPC. The basic math here is that they suck at stopping the run and Xaz is no sl ouch at running it. Lock him in.
Tyler Goodson – Iowa ($6,400)
Last year Iowa was a 2 back setup, but the tide is turning more towards the Soph RB Tyler Goodson who has led them in carries this season. The touchdowns are split down the middle, but against a bad rushing defense I will take the lead back every day. Goodson also see’s about 10% of passint targets where as Sargent gets no passing game love.
Kyren Williams – Notre Dame ($8,300)
You can run on the Tar Heels and that’s the best way to slow down Sam Howell and the passing attack. This is not a great spot in my mind for the Irish and I think Ian Book is going to struggle in the passing game. Kyren has to get over 100 yards and a touchdown.
Joshua Mack – Liberty ($6,200)
I suspect that Malik Willis will get a ton of attention as he has rushed for 744 yards at 6.5 per carry this season, but his enormous price tag makes it really tough to smash him into lineups. Make no mistake, he will get his this week after a let down last week but the value to me is Joshua Mack who leads all non Willis players in carries for Liberty with 114 total rushes for 583 and 3 touchdowns on this season. The Senior back is in line to have a very solid day against a bad rushing defense from UMASS. For $6,200 he just needs his usual workload and he should be close to paying off his salary.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Xavier Hutchinson – Iowa State ($5900)
Kalil Pimpleton – Central Michigan ($7500)
Through three MACtion games so far I swear it feels like Pimpleton has gone for about 90 yards and a touchdown every game. He has actually gone down in receptions each game and has not topped 65 yards with just one score. Not exactly the stats that the DK algo should be pumping him up to $7500 on the road when the ground game statistically is what should thrive in this spot. But he did pop for 5-112 against Eastern Michigan last season and we want some part of this MACtion game. The full slate is a little bare for a stud WR who is in a smash spot, so take a gamble on Pimpleton breaking one to the house.
Jaylon Robinson – UCF ($6100)
I got cute and stupid last week when UCF faced off against Cincinnati by thinking that Robinson (the #2 and lesser WR) would be able to have a good enough game against a stout Cincinnati defense even though I felt it would be a sneaky high scoring back and forth game. The game itself was great, but Robinson clearly could not produce against a top defense like Marlon Williams could. Sure, Robinson got into the end zone but 5-32 just isn’t enough production in this offense. No worries this week though, I am going straight back to the Robinson well as they get back to lesser competition. Robinson has plenty of big play ability as he has shown all season with only two games under 100 yards receiving. The Knights did welcome back Tre Nixon ($5,000) who could certainly continue to eat into Robinson’s upside, but I see him topping the century mark again and for $2,000 cheaper than Williams, he’s a good option to get UCF exposure.
Joshua Moore & Jake Smith – Texas
Both are good value pairings with Ehlinger as he spreads the ball around quite a bit.
Hassan Beydoun – Eastern Michigan ($5400)
EMU is at home and Beydoun did play in their last game so hopefully he won’t screw us all with a DNP situation this week. Central Michigan isn’t defending the pass well and has given up nearly 75% of their points through the air this season. Beydon is the top target who likely will see close to 10 targets and looks to be flying under the ownership radar this week. Just do yourself a favor and confirm if he is in before the 4:00 PM EST projected start time