NFL Notes – Week 13

at Falcons

OU: 45.5

• Feeling Thomas more than Kamara
• Saints win, Atlanta covers.
• Much more high scoring than the first matchup
• Saints side Michael Thomas no doubt about it.
• Nothing else is a must own.
• Taysom will have a good cash floor
• Hayden Hurst scores, Dom says no doubt about it.
• Brian Hill scores
• Brian Hill scores on a screen pass
• Gonna have to figure out Calvin Ridley.  Think something there.
• That’s it.

• Would be funny if the Saints rolled out Winston this time vs Atlanta
• Adam Trautman scores…  Noooo doubt about it.  Adam Trautman is the Saints new #1 TE.
• Adam Trautman is DK Tight End of the week for $2500.  3 catches and a touchdown
• Alvin Kamara probably gets involved more than the last two weeks and I wouldn’t be shocked if Kamara is the one who throws Trautman his touchdown.
• Taysom will hit a bomb to Sanders or Harris just like he did in the first game.
• Game isn’t a shootout.
• Atlanta cannot sustain drives by having Ryan drop back and throw 10-20+ yards down the field and the Saints smothered Hayden Hurst.  Look for some bootlegs from Ryan, which leads to an underneath day for Russell Gage catching 5 or 6 passes.
• Not sure how you can really like much on Atlanta side.  Cant invest heavily in this game.
• Trautman and consider Saints D and move on.
• Ah.  Probably a 4 FG Wil Lutz game + Trautman TD and one random TD elsewhere (Thomas).
• Kamara catches 4 for 37.  2 as a receiver.  Thomas catches 8 for 95.
• Trautman scores 3 catches, 28 yards and a touchdown.

at Vikings

OU: 51.5

• Gotta love Dalvin here and those who stayed away will  benefit this week (i.e. Me).  Gotta like Dalvin here.
• Someone in the passing game for Jaguars gotta own.
• Mind gearing towards Shenault unless Keelan Cole is playing.
• B-Level receiver, even if Chark is playing its not him.
• Non primary guy for Jacksonville.
• If Chark In, Shenault.  If Cole in, Cole.
• Vikings win, Vikings win running away.
• Vikings D.  Home Defense, home RB
• No need for Cousins to throw it at all.
• Back in the playoff conversation.  Smash mouth this week.
• Someone on Jags side in the passing game.  Lean Shenault.
• If in Jacksonville would be full gamestack game.
• In Minnesota, it’s not.

• Want to say James Robinson because he just finds a way to always get up to 90 yards due to a heavy volume.  Need to know if DJ Chark is in or out.
• This just smells like a major trap spot for the Vikings.  1PM home game against an AFC opponent after a come back win.
• Cook has reached the do not touch tier that CMC hit last year when he finally got priced up.  Just not worth taking it when they’re getting Theilen back (I assume) and Jacksonville can’t stop pass either.  The GB game was a 100% funnel and dont let Cousins fuck up spot, so that type of upside isnt here and he’s fragile.
• Really dont love much on Minnesota side because Theilen draws away from Jefferson.
• Although Theilen should be a safe play for a bunch of catches.
• Jags side is what I like.  Wouldn’t shock me to see them win.
• Can you really trust Mike Glennon?  No.  Sooo…  Chark?  Robinson?
• I like the game.
• Not sure I trust the teams.

at Titans

OU: 54

• This is a are we for real game for Cleveland
• Dom likes Cleveland to win it.
• Cleveland Defense steps up BIG in this game
• If not mistaken, Garrett is back after 2 game absence and he will wreck shop.
• Leaning on the Nick Chubb side of things – not a ceiling game
• Winning game for Chubb stats.
• A.J. Brown catches a short one on other side, reliant on the passing attack for Tennessee.
• Game does not live up to shootout expectations.
• Cleveland shows up on the road.  Titans have a let down.
• Not much from Ten.  Tannehill 265, 2 TD, 3 INT.
• Dont think Henry gets rolling.

• Every Cleveland game has a habit of just moving along quickly.
• Derrick Henry home/road splits are starting to stand out.  Dominates on the road.
• Myles Garrett back = Bad day for Titans
• If Garrett is out, you gotta once again consider passing attack for Titans.
• Like Corey Davis to score and have 100+ yards.  But if Garrett is back then I can see this game going under as Cleveland’s D gets enough pressure.
• I also don’t trust Browns offense enough, but Kareem Hunt will score twice.  Only someone you can really trust on DK though.
• Corey Davis & Kareem Hunt.
• Game could go under.

at Bears

OU:  45

• Be careful
• If Kenny G is back, sneaky game stack.
• Be careful, could be sneaky game stack.
• Problem is Chicago side, like nothing there.
• Don’t see it from David Montgomery, had ceiling vs GB.
• Allen Robinson also will not duplicate vs GB
• Jeff Odukah plays AR2 well.
• Darnell Mooney scores for the Bears.
• Stafford-Golladay-Mooney, got some juice.
• Chicago Bears TE scores as well.

• The Lions are bad on the road after Thanksgiving – but gotta assume they play like Houston did after BOB got fired and maybe Stafford just airs it out all game for the heck of it?
• I got nothing.  Cole Kmet maybe gets that TD this game.
• Not David Montgomery two weeks in a row.
• Cross it off.

at Dolphins

OU: 42

• Gotta love the Dolphins defense.
• Only way Bengals have shot was Mixon.
• Dolphins defense running away.
• Easy plug in play.
• Offensive scores spread out.  No matter who is QB
• Defense is woooooah.  Wooooooah.
• Cincinnati cannot run up the gut.
• Won’t work passing vs Miami secondary.
• Pick 6 city.

• Eww
• Dolphins D?
• Tua get right game?  Tua get right game for sure.
• Bring Tua back, have him throw it around 20-23 times, high completion % plays.  Lean on Parker and … who is their #2 WR?  I see a non Parker, non Gisecki passing touchdown for Tua.
• Defense controls the game, gives them short fields, Tua executes the offense.
• Dolphins win it running away.  The lack of Joe Mixon kills Cincinnati here.

at Texans

OU: 53

• Hate to say it
• Dont think it will be a shootout
• Going to be one sided
• Colts win running away
• Doesn’t mean DeShaun wont have a cash game floor, he will have to run a lot – 60 yards and maybe one on the ground and one via the air.  He wont have ceiling game.
• Assuming price went way up after two weeks in a row.
• Other side of the ball Michael Pittman left, Michael Pittman right.
• He scores, 100 yards receiving.
• Jonathan Taylor????  If he is good to play, game wont shoot moon and it removes value play for Colts RB.
• Game gets sped up dramatically
• Michael Pittman is the one play in the game.
• Watson is the no risk QB.

• Wooooo.  Giddy up!   Luck and TY vs Watson and Hopkins!
• Oh wait
• But yes, TY Hilton.  We can finally consider him.  I called his TD last week and now this is the 100 yard game for TY Hilton.
• Run it back with Will Ful…. son of a bitch.
• The Colts are going to thump them.
• Colts RB1 left, Colts RB2 right, Colts RB3 up the gut, Colts QB2 rushes it in for a touchdown.
• Who wants a Colts TE touchdown?  Pick one, any of them, which one you want, one of them scores.
• Hey TY Hilton game.  Except the Texans dont do jack shit on offense.
• Colts defense plays well, wont be hard for them.
• No I am not playing Brandin Cooks.
• This is a 38-3 type game for the Colts.
• This game will tilt me so much in DFS, so just bet the Colts and move on.
• Colts -3?  Try Colts -23…  Bet the house on the Colts.

at Jets

OU: 47

• If Vegas went home = Jets win
• If Vegas stayed east = Vegas wins 38-37
• Gotta like the Jets.  Sneaky plays on the Jets.
• Gotta love Jamison Crowder.  Darnold is throwing 2 TD
• Have to like Josh Jacobs if they went back home and he is able to come out and play.
• Carr will have a get right game.  Not a ceiling game.  250 and 2 TD.
• Jacobs will run 2 in.
• Sneaky go get em plays on the other side of the game.
• Jets D.  Crowder.  Perine will score on a screen pass.  Darnold may run one in too.  Smaller WR hurting the Raiders.
• DFS Gold in this game.
• Final score 34-31.  Cheated on this game if done right.
• Oakland could run out of gas.

• Poor Raiders had to fly home and now go back out to the east coast.
• Prime bounce back spot for Josh Jacobs, but an even better spot for Henry Ruggs
• So the Raiders logically play better, but I can see 2 TD via the air, 2 TD via the ground and it gets spread out where Jacobs gets 1 and Richard gets another and then one to Ruggs and oh my god one to Darren Waller, no?  I might play 2 TE this week on DK.
• Darren Waller bounce back as well.
• Pick your Raiders bounce back player.
• I can see the Jets keeping up.  Darnold would have to be on radar for them to do that.
• Like Crowder.  Like Denzel Mims to make an appearance too.
• Ultimately though the Jets are just bad and going through the motions a little bit.
• I like this game overall.

at Seahawks

OU: 48.5

• Dont want much in this game.
• This is a Chris Carson game all over it and you are not going to touch him with a 10 foot pole.  He will be babied rest of the way.
• Tyler Lockett will score and is a cash game recommendation.
• If Around 7k he is worth it.
• Dont know how the Giants hang.  Lost Barkley, lost Jones.
• Just too many impact players to lose.
• Slayton will be washed out.  Might get lots of 5-10 yard passes to Tate/Shep.
• 23-6 game.

• Why oh why is Daniel Jones injured????
• Devastating.  Daniel Jones was going to go OFF.
• McCoy isn’t.
• This game is 17-13.
• Fade it but consider Tyler Lockett back in the end zone on a 30 yard catch and run.

at Cardinals

OU: 48.5

• This is a pressure test for Kyler and Arizona
• Dom likes Kyler to play well
• Christian Kirk catches a bomb
• Kyler Murray runs one in.
• Gut check game for Arizona.
• Win = Contender, Lose = Seasons done.
• PP keeps coming up in Dom’s head – want to say it’s a Robert Woods game, but could be PP negated.
• Darrell Henderson scores?

• How you doin???
• So the Cardinals own the Niners, the Niners own the Rams and the Rams own the Cardinals.  And everyone else splits with the Seahawks.
• This is a desperation game.
• Every drive will be 3 and out or a touchdown.  There’s no stalling in this game.
• Kenyan Drake week 2020.  Nobody will touch him.  I know he scored twice last week.
• He might score thrice this week.
• They’ll lean on Drake a ton and him getting 2 rushing TD last week was telling on Kyler’s health.
• I really like Robert Woods on the other side to score.  One of those Robert Woods rushing touchdowns.  Are you fucking kidding me, he is #1 at WR on the model.  Cmon.
• I think passing defenses will make big plays in the game, but Goff-Kupp-Woods is tempting as hell.
• Honestly feel like the Rams are more pissed off than the Cardinals.
• Really like Kenyan Drake.

at Chargers

OU: 47

• Big warm security blanket knowing Keenan Allen is in lineup for this game.
• Said Patriots were done but knew they would beat Arizona.
• New England has no shot in this game.
• Dunno about the Chargers D – definitely want Keenan Allen
• Is NE competent enough to move the ball to score to validate Herbert-Keenan Allen combo?  QB are doing it vs NE.
• Chargers win by atleast 10.  23-10 or 27-16, something like that.
• San Diego air attack which deflates the SD air attack.

• Is this just a get right game for the Chargers as an offense now that they’re pulling Ekeler back into the mix?
• Chargers defense a sneaky play.  They’ll force a couple turnovers.
• Has to be the Chargers ground game and I cant trust Ekeler yet.
• Ekeler back could help out Josh Kelly actually.
• Josh Kelly probably accumulates a decent game.

Packers

OU: 48.5

• Either in or out on this game.  Out if you think Philly cannot do anything and theres no GB investment if Philly cant do anything.
• Or you are in because you have a belief that the wonkiness and lack of continuity on Philly is a temp thing and not a long term thing.
• Miles Sanders scores for sure
• Game covers the OVER by a mile.
• Philly gets offense going.  Wentz spreads it around.
• Miles rushing touchdown and 120 total yards.
• Carson Wentz – 3 touchdowns.
• Philly wins 31-28 or loses 31-28
• Davante Adams?  Nobody is just a must own.
• If Adams doesnt score long TD he will not score inside the 10.
• Adams finishes with 120 yards.
• Aaron Jones scores.  High scoring game.  Lotta pieces you gotta own.
• Wentz is playable first time in six weeks.

• I am going to stick with my initial gut on this one and it might cost me.
• Eagles win.
• Eagles have a miracle game out of nowhere.
• Eagles win.
• Eagles win 24-17.
• I do not know how their offensive line is going to do it, but they’re going to pull off the upset behind a ton of Miles Sanders and a better than expected game from Carson Wentz who will throw a touchdown pass to Alshon Jeffery for old times sake.
• And the other touchdown will be a dump down to Miles Sanders.
• Green Bay defense has not played great at home this year and I feel like the Eagles play well in Lambeau
• I really don’t see how one can trust this in DFS or even claim that they want to back the Eagles right now, but this was my feeling before the MNF game and I’m gonna stick with it.
• Eagles win.  I wanted to say 34-27 initially, but I’ll downgraded it to 24-17.
• However Allan Lazard is going to have a solid game.  15+ fantasy points.

at Chiefs (SNF)

• Poor Broncos

at Ravens (MNF)

• Dumpster Fire

at 49ers (MNF)

• Might be the best game of the entire weekend.

at Steelers

• Dumpster Fire.  Washington plays well.