Big weekend of CFB DFS contests this week.  The Liberty vs Coastal game has been PPD and instead of Liberty it will be BYU playing Coastal but that game is not included as it was a late change this week.  As of now the Ohio State Buckeyes are back on the slate and we haven’t had any other COVID-19 related cancellations either so all games look like a go.  It’s a big slate, but no specific shootout spots and obviously some colder weather in a few areas.

UPDATE:  Hey cool.  I wrote this and then Georgia vs Vanderbilt was PPD – which means you no longer can read about how my high school team lost to a girl kicker back in 1994.

 

SNEAKY GAME OF THE DAY

Florida (-10) at Tennessee

After Florida’s first game this year I declared them the team to look at every single week and my biggest mistake in CFB DFS has been fading them in spots because I felt they would just walk over their opponent.  This is a game that smells like a Volunteer upset or one they’ll be able to keep it close and so the volume of the Trask-Pitts combination will be safe.  And you can run on the Gators who are allowing over 4.1 YPC at 35 rushes per game to their opponents.  That sets up extremely favorable for Eric Gray ($7,300) as a home running back likely to get close to 20 carries in this game.  And with Tennessee QB Jarret Gaurantino being so cheap we have a spot we can gamestack.

Florida:  Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts, Kadarius Toney or NayQuan Wright (RB value who saw 6 targets last week)

Tennessee:  Jarret Guarantino, Eric Gray, Josh Palmer

 

MY POSITIONAL RANKINGS

QUARTERBACKS

Unless we get some serious value opening up at RB this week it’s tough to pair two high priced Quarterbacks.  In fact, it’s tough to get even one into your lineup along with a high priced RB this week.

Kyle Trask – Florida ($9,600) … Kyle Trask and thus getting exposure to Kyle Pitts is my favorite of the stars to pay up for.  I think it’s a tougher game for the Florida defense than other high $ Quarterbacks and the Gators have let him do all the work this year.  Guys like Fields, Book, Ehlinger in the high price range just don’t have the same clear path to big days.  Although Ehlinger would be the most contrarian one to bounce back after a rough Senior day outing at home last Friday.

Brennan Armstrong – Virginia ($8,200) … Armstrong is finally priced appropriately but still has 60-70 yard rushing ability this week at home vs Boston College.  They’re a below average rush defense.

Jeff Simms – Georgia Tech ($7,300) … If Gibbs is out, he’ll take most of the rushing yards that Gibbs is vacating IMO.

 

And lets get weird …

Bo Nix – Auburn ($6,500) … Trask and Armstrong are 1a and 1b this week given their upside and prices.  Period.  But I have been spending a lot of time trying to figure out who in this low 7k or lower range is a long shot guy I can take a gamble on this week.  There’s Guarantano potentially having to keep up with Florida for very cheap but really they’re a heavy running game and should have success there.  Then there’s Phil Jukovec and the air attack against Virginia which is always nice, but, meh.  And does anyone really want to put their faith into Jarret Doege on the road at Iowa State?  No.  So I landed on Bo Nix.  Now, this is probably where you tell me to go back and try again but let me remind you that Bo Jackson’s birthday was this week and he too was a Bo who went to Auburn.

Bet you didn’t think about THAT, now did you?

So why did I land on Bo Nix?  Well, I just opened a beer for starters.  But more importantly, the data!  As I was going through my research on a prime bounce back play, Seth Williams, I noticed how Texas A&M continues to be an EXTREME funnel to the pass.  Like, they don’t give up SHIT on the ground and with Auburn’s best players on offense being Williams and Schwartz that’s where they should funnel their offense this week.  Does Nix have the rushing upside against A&M?  Probably not much, but if he’s getting pressured he does add some value of rushing a TD in at the red zone and maybe walking away with a sneaky 30-40 yards rushing this week.  Combine that with two touchdowns through the air and we’ve got a fairly decent day for $6,500.

 

 

RUNNING BACKS

Likely only getting one of these guys in your lineup this week and I’m locked in on Breece Hall.

Breece Hall – Iowa State ($8,700) … Hall is not in as good of a spot as Kyren or Horvath but he should be in a close game against WVU.  I think this game is a nice sneaky game this week and Hall gets the ball sooo much that we should trust his floor as much as Kyren Williams but at much lower ownership.  The WVU defense is perceived good, but there have been three games this year they got pounded for 203, 179 and 179 yards with around 4.75 yards per carry combined in those three games.  Guess what, all three happened to be their only three road games of the season at Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Texas.  I mean yeah, those teams have some rushing ability but it’s not like they went out and faced teams who only pound the rock.  Deck the Hall’s with lots of touchdowns, fa-la-la-la la, la-la-la-la….

Ainias Smith – Texas A&M ($5,500) … Smith is used primarily in the passing game and that’s the upside against Auburn.  He had a down game last week as Mond was absolutely horrible passing to him in the rain against LSU but he should have an easier time this week and seeing 22% of the targets for $5,500 at a position where I kinda need some good mid range value he fits perfectly this week.  I’ve seen some ownership projections that have him around 30% but I honestly think he’ll be lower then that and he winds up on the winning GPP lineups this week.

Kyren Williams – Notre Dame ($9,200) … This is a blowout spot for Notre Dame at home and to me Book and Williams both have solid floor games but not ceiling spots like we saw with Williams last week.  For his price he needs to hit 35 fantasy points in my mind and I don’t see it, but if you want an 18-22 locked in for safety he’s the best option.

Zander Horvath – Purdue ($8,400) … Another guy who is a little too pricey but the offense for Purdue should funnel through him and some end-arounds for Rondale Moore this week.

Best Value Running Backs:

• Jordan Mason (GT) … If Gibbs is out he will be a highly owned play.
• NayQuan Wright (UF)

WIDE RECEIVERS

Seth Williams – Auburn ($5,400) … Texas A&M has an elite rush defense but allows nearly 65% completion percentage in the passing game.  Williams at his price and usage is a fantastic bounce back spot as I expect Auburn to roll against the overrated Aggies at home.  78% of the touchdowns allowed by the Aggies have come through the air.  He is the forgotten man this week who is going to explode.

Rondale Moore – Purdue ($6,800) … I am a little shocked Moore is still playing and he’s an $8,500 receiver who is underpriced because he wasn’t playing in their first few games.  The upside though isn’t in the passing game against Nebraska, the upside is that Moore will get 5 or so carries and whenever the kid has the ball in his hands its a chance to go the distance.  Combine that with a likely bump in the short passing game where he thrives and Moore to me easily hits value with 3 TD upside.  I could quickly see this turning into the Moore/WanDale Robinson back and forth exciting game…

WanDale Robinson – Nebraska ($6,900) … The most contrarian recommendation you will read all week is right here folks.  Play Moore and Robinson who are both WR and nearly $7,000 but play them without their Quarterbacks.  Yep, they’re both likely to get big gains on the ground and score rushing touchdowns this week.  How about dem apples.

Zay Flowers – Boston College ($5,200) … This is entirely based upon Jurkovich playing and if he does it’s a dream spot against a terrible Virginia pass defense.

Kyle Pitts – Florida ($7,800) … All he does is catch touchdowns.  Florida will get a test this week against the Volunteers so they’ll have to rely on their star TE.

Emeka Emezie – NC State ($4,900) … There aren’t many low spread, high total games this weekend and this one should feature plenty of running in it to speed the clock up – but Emezkie has flourished in the higher scoring competitive games for NC State this season.  He leads the team in targets and yards and is sub $5,000 on DraftKings.  Don’t need to be stupid on this one.

Also consider:  WVU receivers in a run it back type situation with Breece Hall.  TJ Simmons is finally alive but I still have a soft spot for the ever so tilting Sam James and Bryce Ford-Wheaton has plenty of talent to make big plays.  Basically Simmons took away from BFW in their last game.  

 

Best Value WR:

• Bryce Ford-Wheaton (WVU)
• Terrell Jana (UVA)
• Jalen Nailor (MSU) 

 

GAME PICKS

• Auburn +6.5
• TCU +1.5
• WVU/ISU over 49.5
• Florida/Tennessee over 52.5
• NC State -6.5

 

CORE PLAYERS

• Breece Hall
• Ainias Smith
• Seth Williams