at Saints

(XMAS)

• Saints DEF played too many snaps vs Chiefs to have a clean dominant game unless they get help from the running game.  So thats the game plan.  LatMurray left and LatMurray right.
• This has the same feel to it as the Saints-Falcons Thanksgiving game last year.
• Which was dominated by Taysom & Saints Defense.  There is the final Brees regular season home game narrative here though — but keep the D off the field especially with Marcus Williams likely out.
• Murray, Callaway, Taysom
• Theilen and Cook for the Vikings.

at Lions

• Lack of Kenny Golladay is just tilting.
• I think you have to like the Tampa defense.  Good spot for them to get 4-5 sacks, a turnover and maybe a defensive touchdown.
• Give me some TJ Hockenson though.  Could have a nice 7 catch game.  He will have to produce simply based off volume.  Might get another vulture TD though from that other TE.
• Really don’t love much on the Tampa offense side, I think its spread around.
• Obviously Godwin and Evans make sense though.
• Can’t trust the Tampa ground game personally.  They might get Vaughn going into this game, or!
• Shady McCoy scores a touchdown.  Screen pass from Brady.
• Brady throws 3 TD, but it feels empty.  33-10 final score.

at Cardinals

• This game has all the juice…
• San Francisco will keep up with Arizona.  And they do it with …
• Tevin Coleman baby.  Welcome to the Tevin Coleman game.
• Love Christian Kirk on the other side.
• If this game shoots out like I expect (30-27 type game) then guys like Coleman/Kirk come into play big time as options.  Obviously nobody in the world will have Coleman, but Kirk paired with Kyler is where to start.  Hopkins chalky for good reason.
• Don’t mind just stacking this game heavy and moving on.
• I want action on this game.

at Raiders

• Raiders win.
• Josh Jacobs pounds the rock up the gut as Dom would say on the Dolphins.
• Gruden shows the world he can win without Derek Carr and that is the end of the Carr era in Vegas.
• DeVante Parker’s price is affordable, which makes him a no brainer guy.
• But it’s Josh Jacobs.  Jacobs is the must own.
• This is third straight home game for Vegas.  They lost the previous two.  They’re winning.

at Ravens

• Zero DFS plays from this game.
• Zero
• But I think this is an entertaining and close game.  20-17 final score.

at Chiefs

• This game carries ZERO meaning for Kansas City.  And that is why neither Mahomes or Ryan are the plays here.  At some point game theory has to matter this season.  Chiefs have no reason to push it in this game.
• So they won’t pound LevBell into the game.  Probably a mix of both RB.  Take some bomb shots to Robinson or Hardman or Watkins if you want a flyer.  Get out to a lead and then pump the brakes.
• But I think the game just dies.
• Ridley will get shutdown.
• Chiefs defense might be the play.  I see them getting to Ryan, causing a turnover.
• Chiefs win, Falcons might backdoor cover.
• Either Robinson or Watkins a value play, that’s it.

at Washington

• Why would CMC play?  I personally think Rhule is forcing his way into the GM role and they’re going to tank the last two games but their defense is starting to show signs of life.
• But you gotta love Terry McLaurin, no?
• This is not a great spot for the Panthers offense outside of DJ Moore scoring
• Oh my god.  Logan Thomas.   Logan Thomas should dominate.
• Well fuck.  If I like Thomas and I like McLaurin.  Who is QB for Washington???
• There might be some juice here.  Keep an eye on this game.

at Steelers

• Alright … If Pittsburgh wins they’re the AFC North Champs and locked into the 3 seed and their game next week against the Browns means nothing.  If they lose this game they run the risk of falling out of the 3 seed with a loss to the Browns.  This is the game they come out, get right, focus, win and then give themselves a BYE next week against the Browns before a playoff game (likely against the Browns)
• But not sure if it’s Ben, the ground game or the defense who steps up.  One has to think the defense is what steps up to secure the win, while Ben throws for 2 TD.  One for sure is going to Ebron.
• I just can’t see the Colts lighting up the Steelers defense to make this a shootout.  So the Steelers win 27-13 with a strong effort from their defense and an offensive performance that just stabilizes things.
• Remember.  Ben always SUCKS in Cincinnati.  The Monday night game is going to have everyone off of him, but they will respond this week.

at Jaguars

• Well.  Shoot.  David Montgomery once again?
• Montgomery has to finish with 120 yards rushing and a touchdown.
• I expect Trubisky-Montgomery-Robinson is a popular stack this week.
• Problem is that the Jaguars are going to do NOTHING on offense.
• So you just roll out Montgomery and hope he gets an early touchdown to get the floor secured because when the Bears blow teams out with Trubisky he winds up rushing one in.

at Texans

• Ew.  I’ll pass.
• I definitely can see a scenario where Watson lights it up though.  They just say go do what you want kid and he comes out and throws for 300 and 4 touchdowns in a blowout.
• I can definitely see that with Bengals playing their Super Bowl last week.  But this is a lost year on Houston and they appear tired and done where as the Bengals have a little bit of hey lets keep playing well we have something good going here.
• I dont think it’s worth touching.

at Jets

• Cleveland’s pass defense still has holes.  If not for some shitty weather in home games they would be ranked pretty poorly overall.  So yeah, the Jets are gonna score points.
• But boy I love DPJ.  Donovan Peoples Jones running down the sideline for a touchdown.  Maybe 2.
• So you have to like Baker?  You cant run on the Jets, so Cleveland will die in that scenario and if the Jets are gonna pass the ball with success on the Browns then Baker’s gonna have to push it vertically.
• I like this game.
• Baker-Jones-Landry, run it back with Crowder or Perriman/Mims?
• This game has points.

at Chargers

• I want this game to be great.  I really do.
• I want Herbert-Ekeler-Something to be the stack with Tim Patrick or Jeudy on the other side.
• I want that.
• But Melvin Gordon to me is going to have a solid game and who the hell knows.
• I want it to be great.

at Cowboys

• Alright, here we go.  I found the scenario.  Washington loses and Philly wins and it sets up winner take all Week 17 game.  So sure, I’ll bite.
• Fucking Miles Sanders locked in.  Next question.
• CeeDee Lamb on the other side.
• Sanders and Lamb.
• That’s my exposure.  I get Hurts is chalky.  But with Sanders being a no brainer, I’m not pairing both together.

at Seahawks

• Rams usually play fantastic in Seattle and they usually do it with the ground game doing well.
• Robert Woods is scoring a touchdown on an end around.
• I don’t like anything on Seattle’s side of the ball except a sweep by the Rams here feels off, but love the Rams off the Jets loss last week.

at Packers

• Choooooooooooo Chooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
• Chooooooooooooooooooooooooo Choooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
• Chugga-Chugga-Chugga-Chugga-Chugga-Chugga-Chugga
• Choooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Chooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Patriots

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