Welcome to the New Year, same as the Old Year. CFB DFS action today with four games including the two Semi-Final Championship games as Cincinnati is … wait, Cincinnati isn’t playing for the Natty? Notre Dame is? What a crime, like I said, welcome to the New Year, same as the Old Year…
Today’s Slate of Games
Georgia (-7) vs Cincinnati
Auburn vs Northwestern (-3.5)
Notre Dame vs Alabama (-20)
Ohio State vs Clemson (-7.5)
Popular Stacks
Ohio State vs Clemson has a ton of offensive firepower in it and while the total in both Semi-Final games is around 66, this one clearly has the better options and I suspect it’s the popular full game stack of the day. Alabama will be the second most popular team stacked as their projected total (42.5) is the highest on the slate.
QUARTERBACKS
Trevor Lawrence (CLEM) – $8,800
You can move the ball through the air on this Ohio State team and a healthy Clemson team should be in line to do that. Do not assume that it’s all Lawrence to the WR though as when Clemson typically gets in these ‘big’ games they lean on Etienne out of the back field as a pass catcher, but none the less it will be Lawrence who carries them.
Desmond Ridder (CINCY) – $8,300
I expect the common build today is to pair T-Law with Fields in many lineups for a gamestack scenario. But I cannot look past the fact that IMO Ridder is better than Fields and has the exact same matchup and not to mention a banged up RB which might favor Ridder in critical rushing situations near the goal line. He’s a great value on FD as well.
Bo Nix (AUB) – $6,000
This is nothing more than a value play hoping Nix rushes one or two in. Northwestern’s rush defense got gashed in the B10 Championship game and that’s been their vulnerable spot all season long. Nix has shown rushing ability when he drops back and appears to have no clue where to pass the ball. For 6k, one rushing TD alone will keep you afloat.
RUNNING BACKS
Travis Etienne (CLEM) – $6,900
Wait, it’s a critical game for Clemson? Fire up the Etienne Machine.
Cam Porter (NW) – $4,900
Should be the lead RB for Northwestern today against a 4.30 YPC defense.
Kyren Williams (ND) – $6,200
The benefit that Kyren has is that he’s bound to see the ball 20 times but I have a hard time seeing how Notre Dame scores 20 points tonight by giving him the ball 20 times.
Shaun Shivers (AUB) – $3,400
Tank Bigsby is OUT for Auburn today, this should be the Shivers show.
Gerrid Doaks (CINCY) – $4,400
If he plays at this price he is a bargain even in a tough spot. Prefer to use him on full Cincinnati stacks.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Devonta Smith (BAMA) – $9,000
If you aren’t trying to play Smith or Harris then you’re betting Notre Dame and if you are betting Notre Dame you are drunk.
Amari Rodgers (CLEM) – $6,500 and EJ Williams ($4,300)
If you can make heads or tails over the Clemson WR that wins the slate then you too win the slate today. This is the biggest decision we have IMO. Rodgers is the highest owned and likely considered logical play since he leads the team in targets, yards and touchdowns as the true #1. But as the season has moved on Cornell Powell has been equally strong and is $700 cheaper but freshman EJ Williams ($4300) has to get consideration along with Brendan Galloway ($3600).
Alec Pierce (CINCY) – $5,500
A little more pricey than I would like but I want a piece of the Bearcats as they’re one of my favorite plays on this slate. Cincy has a great rushing game which sets up their pass but the UGA defense is stout against the run, so the game will come down to just how much Georgia trusts their rush defense to slow down the Bearcats on the ground. If they don’t trust it enough then Pierce is gonna have a big game vertically against a UGA defense that yielded over 250 yards passing per game this year and allowed 65% completion percentage. Both really bad for what is considered a top defense.
Chris Olave (OSU) – $6,400
Olave is the blanket for Justin Fields and he’ll be back for the Sugar Bowl tonight. I expect him to be the leading WR for Ohio State.
Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman (NW) – $4,800
He had a solid game in the B10 Championship game and although Auburn hasn’t yielded a TON of yards in the passing game they did allow 64% completion to opponents which favors RCB in the short passing game.
George Pickens (UGA) – $6,100
Value WR
Eli Stove (AUB) – $4,100
Brendan Galloway (CLEM) – $3,600
Jayshon Jackson (CINCY) – $3,700
Jahleel Billingsley (BAMA) – $4,200
FAVORITE STACKS
- Clemson
- Cincinnati / Georgia
- Ohio State