If we did all-star teams by division the NL Central would have the worst team of the six divisions. It’s not just because we have the Pittsburgh Pirates in this division either. Top to bottom we have seen previous division winners the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals all either cut costs or sputter around taking advantage of a weak division.
1 – St Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals are the obvious and chalk pick to win the division because of their Arenado acquisition from the Rockies over the winter. Arenado himself has fallen down in fantasy value because not having 81 home games in Coors Field would drop down everyone’s value. Going into St. Louis should limit the HR upside but he’ll still crank out a ton of doubles and he now gets more road games in Miller Park where he has a slash line better than Paul Goldschmidt — who is known as Mr. Miller Park.
The story simply remains in two areas for the Cards though. Can their bullpen finally become a stable force, which really depends a lot on Jordan Hicks. And can their younger fill in players like a Dylan Carlson and Tommy Edman contribute regularly. If so, the Cardinals will win this division running away as Jack Flaherty is poised to have a bounce back year as the Ace of the team.
2 – Milwaukee Brewers
I give the Brewers credit for having a plan. They’ve decided that instead of chasing after building another good offense they will try to win with a great bullpen and excellent defense — which has never been a bad recipe when you aren’t looking to spend a ton of money.
3 – Cincinnati Reds
Unlike the Brewers, the Reds seemingly have no plan what-so-ever. They let Bauer walk which was an obvious decision the whole world saw coming and I think we’re going to look back on their move to get him years from now and realize that probably nobody suffered more from the pandemic season than the Reds. They simply never got going offensively and when it came down to it most they couldn’t a single run against the Braves in the playoffs because of that. Wasting the Castillo-Gray-Bauer 1-2-3 pitching staff that should have dominated in a 162 game season. Now Gray is hurt, Votto is older, Suarez is moving around positions and who knows exactly if Castellanos can hold up for 162 games. Cincinnati is good enough to walk into a few 5 game winning streaks but not good enough to challenge for a playoff spot.
4 – Chicago Cubs – Under 79
Do you know how badly I want to put the Cubs behind the Pirates? Someone please try to sell me on Joc Pederson over Kyle Schwarber because I am not buying it. Anthony Rizzo has long seen his ceiling come and go and so the offense hinges around Ian Happ, Wilson Contreras and Javier Baez. Nice young players, but not nice enough.
With Darvish gone the pitching staff loses that automatic give us a win every 5 days pitcher and Kyle Hendricks, Jake Arrieta, Trevor Williams might be the finest collection of soft tossers we have ever seen. But they won’t score enough to win and their bullpen is going to remain terrible.
5 – Pittsburgh Pirates – Under 58! Enjoy the sweat!
I feel bad for Ke’Bryan Hayes because he is a nice young ballplayer, but the Pirates are a lost organization. But with the lowest win total on the board, we gotta do what is right and … yes. Play the under.