Throughout the season we have to check in on everyone’s Bullpen to take a glimpse at who has been used recently and how those pitchers not only are performing but are expected to perform over the next few weeks or months. Bullpens are extremely fragile and often times get miss-interpreted with what is a good bullpen and what is a bad bullpen.
A good bullpen in my mind is one that has a defined structure from the 6th inning on in regards to who is going to come in. If the starter is going to carry the team through 6 innings as most teams would like, then ideally they have a plan in place on what the 7th-8th-9th is going to include. Many teams are going more towards a committee approach where the guy in the 7th and the guy in the 9th could flip every single day, but the point remains that they have defined players in those innings who are quality and will produce.
For example, does it really matter if it’s Devin Williams or Josh Hader in the 7th or the 8th or the 9th? No. What matters in DFS is that they have those guys available to pitch in those spots and so we must consider that a solid bullpen. A team who is trying out new closers frequently and the person who is “trying” to establish a role there is one that is fragile because if the pitcher doesnt work out as closer then there’s a good chance he might not even work out with the team and that’s just perfect for attacking in DFS.
The other thing we have to consider is how much the bullpen is actually going to be used. Rest is very important for identifying who is available on a given day and I have now included the usage for the past 5 days on relievers for all teams into the Dashboard. The models are going to start incorporating this into player ratings as well and it should help us identify opportunities to attack bullpens which might be over-used in recent days and have limited options available to them. But it’s critical to understand what the projected usage of the bullpen is as well in relation to who the starter is. If a team is starting their ace, then we can likely assume the bullpen is probably not going to have to pitch as much as they would with someone who normally only throws 60-80 pitches. So understanding the starter is critical too.
Each year there will be seemingly 2-3 bullpens which are the whipping boys of everyone in the league and they’re predictably on really bad teams. But there’s always that one really good team or a team with a good starting staff who just has the worst bullpen going. Like the Nationals a couple years ago, the Phillies last year or going back even further the Indians a few years ago as well. We are two weeks into the season, so I felt it would be a good time now to look at where we stand on Bullpens.
We’ll highlight three categories. You can call it the Good the Bad and the Ugly, but I don’t wanna steal a term used before … actually, yes I do. Let’s call it the Good, the Bad and the Ugly, but spin it in reverse.
Note: All data referenced below is referenced pulling from RP from the last week and will include some data that is pulled from players who have made a spot start or a spot bullpen appearance. But as the season moves along that will thin out some.
The Ugly
Detroit Tigers
Among the players who are in the bullpen recently they have pitched 46 innings and allowed 13 home runs. For a team who plays in a large park and has been in some cold weather games so far that is beyond atrocious. The average xISO is over .230, the average K% is below 22% and they have a bunch of bad options ahead of closer Gregory Soto. In fact, when you remove Soto (LHP) away from the picture it’s clear that they don’t have a consistent plan for the 6th/7th/8th innings. Former starters Daniel Norris, Derek Holland and Tyler Alexander are all used out of the pen but are all LHP and so naturally this team has 6 RP who have an xWOBA over .388 against RH batters. It appears the Tigers for now are taking the “lets just throw out guys who can give us innings” approach to getting through games and so when you want to attack their SP you should plan on getting some massive upside late in games if he is knocked out early. And considering who is in their starting rotation I have a feeling these numbers are not going to improve anytime soon.
Atlanta Braves
If you walk them, they will score. The Braves are not a bullpen that I expect to remain in the UGLY column because the talent here is too good for this to continue. But for now they fall into the category of terrible bullpens behind good (decent?) starting rotations. Injuries are somewhat to blame here, but collectively the available RP’s right now are walking over 12% of batters which is really only topped off by the Cubs and the above mentioned Tigers. If you are walking batters out of the bullpen you’re gonna give up runs and if you are walking batters in a good hitters park like Atlanta then good night. Atlanta has three decent options in Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek and Josh Tomlin and they have one of the better closers in Will Smith when healthy. But the rest has been trial by fire and their starters haven’t been doing enough every night to help out much. The Braves won’t remain in this tier for long, but right now they are a target.
Other UGLY Tier Bullpens
- Marlins … Should move into the UGLY tier ahead of Braves long term.
- Cubs
- Rangers
The Bad
Colorado Rockies
A bad bullpen and Coors Field is kind of the norm, but if the Rockies are this bad in April then it could get really ugly come May and June when the weather warms up. Colorado is going to churn through a bunch of arms and it’s to be expected that we need to re-visit them often to find out how they are moving things around as they try to … I guess rebuild? What is important to note on Colorado pitchers is they have to miss bats and if they don’t miss bats in Coors Field then things get ugly. Daniel Bard and Yency Almonte have both been very good here but unfortunately for Almonte the times when he cannot get batters to swing at his crap out of the zone it’s been hit hard. And in the case of Bard, if they can’t get to him, does it even matter?
The key names to monitor in the Rockies pen are Mychal Givens (RHP) and Jhoulys Chacin (RHP). Chacin is known to get lit up by lefties and so if it looks like he is trending to be available out of the pen then a LH batter gets a big boost here. Givens is their probably most reliable middle inning arm and will usually only pitch one inning when he does go. So if he’s been used three days in a row it’s likely a day off for him. Keep an eye on the recent usage for those two to determine maybe how bad the Rockies pen is going to be. But then again, it’s Coors, so does it really matter?
Other BAD tier bullpens
- Texas Rangers
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Houston Astros
- Cincinnati Reds – This should improve but it’s a tough ballpark to pitch in.
The Good
Chicago White Sox
I believe the White Sox could wind up with the best bullpen in the league and with Michael Kopech now dealing out of the pen consistently (when not used for spot starting) it’s even more loaded. But they have a three headed monster of really good arms in Garrett Crochet, Aaron Bummer, and Liam Hendricks. It’s the exact type of trio that we want to avoid.
New York Yankees
The Yankees certainly cannot hit worth a shit right now but they got one thing going for them and that’s a really good bullpen. This is the main reason why New York doesn’t need to panic too much with the other being a relatively weak division, but for DFS we never want to get excited about going after Yankee pitching.
Milwaukee Brewers
Devin Williams hasn’t been as crisp so far but he’s showing signs of getting back into his ROY form from a season ago. Hader is lights out and there’s a few other nice pieces in this bullpen. Overall the collective stats tell a different story but when you look at the tools available it’s hard not to imagine them being among the leagues best down the stretch.
San Diego Padres
Their rotation features Darvish, Snell, Musgrove and Paddack. That alone is enough to not normally stack against the Padres and then we have a really solid bullpen behind it? Avoid…
Other really good pens
- Cleveland: They have 2 really good arms at the back end and a staff who is always allowed to pitch deep.
- Kansas City: Not quite in the tier with the rest of these teams, but very stable and very deep