This is a fantastic week ahead for Baseball as games will be played in 70 to 80 degree temps around the league and we’re going to see some heavy amount of offense start to pop up around the league in my mind this upcoming week. The days of numerous middle tier pitchers coming out and dominating the scoreboard on DraftKings and FanDuel are going to start to fall down and with that we should hopefully see some pricing adjustments on the sites too to make decisions a lot harder for SP1/SP2 choices. It’s a great week for Baseball and I want you to make sure that you are choosing proper contest selection all week!
We do have the return of wrap-around home teams. Teams who were home over the weekend and are home tonight (Has favored the home team for betting purposes in the past)
- Tampa Bay
- Baltimore
- Atlanta
- St. Louis
- Houston
- San Francisco
- LA Dodgers
WEATHER
There are … ZERO … Issues but there are three roofs to monitor and in the case of two of them the roof being OPEN would even further the hitting
- Miami @ Milwaukee – Likely closed, favors hitters if closed slightly.
- Angels @ Texas – Likely open
- Seattle @ Houston – Likely open
CORBIN BURNES (DK: $10,400, FD: $11,100)
I went on Twitter last night and did my weekly look ahead which featured a bold call that the Marlins would go 5-1 this week and would have a 10+ run game in this series at Milwaukee. I’m just gonna be very clear here and say that no, this is not the game I expect them to score 10 runs in… All Burnes has done in his four starts this season is compile 40 strikeouts over 24 1/3 IP with … 0 walks. Now he draws a RH heavy Marlins lineup which should continue those trends? Clearly put, you are either in on Burnes or you are stacking the Marlins. Do not make a decision which involves neither today. I’ll play Burnes here and watch the Fish win 3-2.
ANTHONY DeSCLAFANI (DK: $7,900, FD: $6,800)
The Italian is back at home and one thing we can look to do is attack the Rockies away from Coors Field so long as they aren’t in Arizona (where they will be later this week). He is a clear drop off from the 1a/1b recommendations above, so the only value in going with DeSclafani in my mind would be to pivot off of Rogers if you want the safe/chalk SP combination tonight.
TREVOR ROGERS (DK: $8,400, FD: $9,600)
Heeeey! Speaking of the fish winning 3-2. Trevor Rogers has been electric as well and like Burnes has a match-up that on paper look fantastic. He’s the leverage off Burnes on FanDuel and the game stack of 2 SP together should continue to be a nice safe focus for us right now. Love pairing him with Burnesey on DK.
Other pitching thoughts …
- Shohei Ohtani – Does not have to do that much to give you a nice 2.5x score on DK tonight but even that would likely be a ceiling for him. They have the training wheels back on him from a pitching usage standpoint.
- Tyler Mahle – I was always a big Mahle fan, but avoided in certain match-ups and while he has been dominant against LHB this year & the Dodgers are coming off the Pads series, It’s still not a spot I will endorse as a top 3. But in the category of extreme risky plays Mahle is top of the list.
- Charlie Morton – Safer options above.
So I outlined that there is a ton of offense coming this week right? So we should be stacking, right? Probably we should be and probably should be smart about having more than one lineup with a variation of different core teams within it. Nice night to have 3 main tournament lineups focused around different stacks.
I am going to list two players per team who I feel are the core plays.
PHILLIES
J.T. Realmuto, Didi Gregorius
16+ mph winds blowing out in St. Louis with really good weather here as well. I have wrote about quite a few times how veteran arms and middle-tier pitchers are often guys that we have to monitor their recent history to see how they have done. Waino is coming off a start which was much better than I had expected last week and he is not someone at this stage in his career where he rolls that out in consecutive starts over and over again. The Phillies aren’t necessarily a top end offense but they sure are better than the Nationals and Brewers – Waino’s last 3 opponents. The wind + weather + humidity here is all screaming for a nice game from the Phillies led by Realmuto, Hoskins and Didi Gregorius.
YANKEES
Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier
Tonight’s chalk play as Gleyber Torres, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez take their ridiculous Batter in Ballpark history into Camden Yards against Matt fricken Harvey. This game could go under while still providing good DFS value given that all the offense should be solo HR’s.
BRAVES
Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman (They seem like good at Baseball guys and if they’ll break out of a slump, I trust them over others here)
How do you make up for getting 7 inning no-no’d by Madison Bumgarner? You take it all out on Zach Davies at home, which is what Atlanta should be able to do to generate some offense tonight. Atlanta has always been a streaky team and right now they’re certainly coming in riding what appears to be a quiet stretch but when they break out they do so with a loud bang and I can easily make a case for them being my #1 play tonight. With the Yankees being so cheap on FD a good pairing there is Braves+Yankees and move on.
DODGERS
Corey Seager, Max Muncy
I have a rule that we should be betting against the Dodgers and Padres in first game after a series with each other. That is true, yes I must admit it’s something I have mentioned before and worked out a week ago. Tyler Mahle has also been ridiculously good against LH batters this season, but he’s got a longer history of getting destroyed by quality lefties and so I don’t see the Dodgers losing this one 2-1 in a lower scoring game as Corey Seager, Max Muncy and we’ll flip it back to the right side with Mookie Betts doing lots of damage on Mahle and a reeling Reds team.
ATHLETICS
Elvis Andrus, Mark Canha, Matt Chapman
Oakland is seeing a LHP for the third straight game and nobody will be on them going back into a dumpster ballpark after the weekend in Camden Yards. Rich Hill’s mistake pitch to the RH batters tonight could lead to a few home runs in this spot for Oakland as a nice 3rd lineup stack.
CATCHER
- JT Realmuto … There are multiple high priced catchers tonight who are going to be very tempting to consider from Sanchez to Contreras to Smith to Realmuto. It’s all JT for me. if you go above the 3k mark on DraftKings tonight.
- Luis Torrens
FIRST BASE
- Freddie Freeman
- Brad Miller
- Paul Goldschmidt
SECOND BASE
- Mike Brosseaux
- Tommy Edman
- Max Muncy
THIRD BASE
- Nolan Arenado
- Kyle Seager
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Elvis Andrus
- Gleyber Torres
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Dylan Carlson
- Mike Trout
- Clint Frazier – Has as many HR in Camden as Gleyber but in far fewer PA.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Mark Canha
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Kyle Lewis / Mitch Haniger
OUTFIELD – Value
- Adam Duvall
- Darin Ruf
- Chris Taylor
The Dongers Club
- J.T. Realmuto – C – Phillies – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
- Elvis Andrus – SS – Athletics
- Freddie Freeman – 1B – Braves
- Kyle Lewis – OF – Mariners
- Dylan Carlson – OF – Cardinals
- Adam Duvall – OF – Marlins
- Tommy Edman – 2B – Cardinals
- BONUS …………….. Corey Seager – SS – Dodgers
BETS
Rough day on some of the bets for yesterday but going in strong for this week with these games tonight.
- Phillies / Cardinals OVER 8
The heavy overs start on Tuesday