I almost never like to post my article very early in the day because I hate having to make updates/edits or have someone come along at 6:30 PM trying to quickly get the information they need only to find out that half the article isn’t playing or it’s information overload. Well of course I thought everything was fine and quiet on this Wednesday and I posted with Yordan Alvarez on the cover, Yordan Alvarez as the Chairman and the Astros as my top stack of the night.
Yordan Alvarez has been placed in quarantine or some shit…
Do I still like Houston against Justin Dunn? Yes, he has a great curve ball but some command issues and his fastball gets murdered. Houston is still a bad match-up for him and should hit him but without Alvarez I’m just kinda meh on them, so I took them out of the write-up. Here’s to them scoring 30 tonight now….
WEATHER
Phillies @ Cardinals – Good chance of PPD risk here. No pitchers in this game we are considering, so if you want to load up on a game stack for hitting then that would be the only relevance. Not a bad spot for both teams hitters if it does play, but not the best game on the slate either. It does look like it could clear out after they start, so feel free to take hitter risks here if you want.
Angels @ Rangers – Roof will likely close.
Other roofs open
Tyler Glasnow
Glasnow is the only Ace pitcher tonight and the only pitcher who has a lot of factors on his side to potentially post a slate breaking score. One of Oakland’s core bats is Matt Chapman and after some further investigation yesterday he just cannot hit any velocity right now because most likely he isn’t fully healed from hip surgery. There’s enough growing data on Chapman to completely write him off vs heavy velocity and we might even see him get a second day off today if Oakland is seeing the same thing. None the less, it’s a spot that Glasnow’s going to be heavily owned tonight and I have him projected for a double digit strikeout game.
Carlos Rodon
Detroit remains terrible vs LHP and Rodon has been excellent so far this season. Do I trust this guy to dominate here? Hell no, but we have a very short string of pitchers tonight and I trust him over Ryan Weathers (San Diego) who I will briefly touch on below as far as a second pitcher is concerned. Cooler temps in Chicago today and while yes I love Jose Abreu in this spot, I do anticipate Casey Mize has a little bounce back game and we see a quiet 4-2 type final score tonight.
German Marquez
I could do a comparison chart on Marquez vs Alex Wood to determine who is the third pitcher tonight (they’re facing each other BTW). And the chart would basically come out 50/50 in terms of the number of plus and minuses for each option. Marquez is going to win out in the talent/strikeout categories but Wood is drawing the better splits match-up and does anyone really expect the Rockies to win two in a row on the road? Me neither. But the deciding factor was that I anticipate we have lower ownership on Marquez and whenever you give me a 50/50 toss-up on two middle-tier pitchers I’ll take the lower owned one every single time.
Pitcher I expect to pitch well but don’t want to force in – Alex Cobb (Angels)
Other Pitching Notes
Ryan Weathers – Do not play IMO
First off, LHP pitchers in Chase Field is usually a scenario I try to avoid but that isn’t something I am over-valuting here tonight.
Weathers quite honestly has posted very impressive results through a short sample thus far and faced the most batters he has so far last Thursday vs LA facing them a total of 20 times, striking out 6 and allowing just 2 H+BB. But what you notice when watching Weathers pitch is just that he doesn’t look like he is going to be very good long term. There’s no dominant secondary pitch and there’s no dominant velocity (he is a LHP after all). But the metrics on his secondary stuff (SLIDER mostly) seem to indicate that it’s going to take some hitters some getting used to it before they start to tee-off on him. His slider has gotten almost no swing and miss outside of the zone, but plenty inside the zone. For comparison this puts him in the same category as guys such as Matt Harvey, Mike Foltynewvicz and Jose Urena. Hey look, three guys who really get hammered at times but then pull some B.S. out of their hats like they have this week. Weird coincidence if you ask me. We’re not going to use Weathers — and the model is just confused because he doesn’t have much results so far in his big league career and they’ve all been good at avoiding trouble. But I don’t know that we want to go heavy on attacking against him either because he doesn’t mind attacking the zone which means we won’t see a ton of walks and hitters clearly just aren’t picking up on what is coming from him yet. So it’s a fade all around unless you want a single D’Back or two because A) the roof is open and B) it is a LHP in chase and C) It is going to be warmer in Arizona tonight than last night. But don’t sit here thinking you should stack up against Weathers just yet — that day will come if they leave him in the rotation.
San Diego Padres
Trent Grishamn, Wil Myers, Manny Machado
The Dodgers lost two in a row after facing off against the Padres but I’m not expecting that from San Diego here. Roof open, Tayler Widener on the hill and lots and lots and lots of Padres dongs. Trent Grisham is the must own for San Diego tonight.
Washington Nationals vs Toronto Blue Jays
Prefer the Toronto bats but Washington remains a value team tonight – Springer/Biggio
Toronto should get George Springer back tonight finally which gives them a massive boost at the top of the order because Biggio is terrible seeing the SP for the first time and we all know how good Springer is in that role. Ownership on this game is going to be interesting after we saw all the homers last night in a nice warm Dunedin field. The Nationals get to face Steven Matz who they destroyed back when he was with the Mets. Trea Turner, Josh Harrison, Ryan Zimmerman (Florida man!) and others are all going to be popular plays today. To make matters worse we have Hernan Perez and Jordy Mercer probably getting starting spots today as well and coming in at virtually free prices to make them optimizer favorites today. Matz needs to keep the ball on the ground or it’s going to be another high scoring game tonight.
Baltimore Orioles
DJ Stewart, Maikel Franco, Trey Mancini
Highest total tonight should make this a popular game and it’s for good reason with Kremer and German pitching in warm temps in a nice ballpark. The sneaky side to me is Baltimore however as German has just been really bad all season and compared to Kremer he is trending in the wrong direction. Baltimore obviously isn’t the “name” power that the Yankee side is, but DJ Stewart, Trey Mancini and Maikel Franco all have HR pop in this spot.
CATCHER
- Carson Kelly
- Yan Gomes
- Willson Contreras – Had his way with Ynoa in Wrigley
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu …. Casey Mize is still figuring things out in the big leagues. He is improving but he is also giving up lots of hard contact which is normal for a young pitcher. Jumping back on Jose Abreu tonight.
- Rowdy Tellez
- Mike Ford … A top value play tonight.
SECOND BASE
- Jake Cronenworth
- Cavan Biggio – He is really struggling. Would only use as part of stack
- Josh Harrison
THIRD BASE
- Alex Bregman
- Manny Machado
SHORTSTOP
- Fernando Tatis Jr
- Nick Ahmed … It’s coming! I swear it’s coming!
- Bo Bichette
- Carlos Correa
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- Wil Myers
- George Springer
- D.J. Stewart
- Michael Brantley
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Mitch Haniger
- Trent Grisham
- Lourdes Gurriel
OUTFIELD – Value
- Kyle Lewis
- Clint Frazier
- Hernan Perez
The Dongers Club
- DJ Stewart – OF – Orioles – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Ian Happ – OF – Cub
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- Nick Ahmed – SS – Diamondbacks
- Manny Machado – 3B – Padres
- Trent Grisham – OF – Padres
- Willson Contreras – C – Cubs
- Josh Harrison – 2B – Nationals
- BONUS ………………….. George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
BETS
- Angels/Rangers UNDER
- Yankees/Orioles OVER 10
- Padres/Diamondbacks OVER 9
THREE ENTRY MAX POOL
- Pitchers
- 100% Glasnow
- 33% Marquez
- 33% Rodon
- 33% Alex Cobb
- Stacks
- 33% Astros
- 33% Padres
- 33% Blue Jays
- Nationals/Orioles value one offs
OWNERSHIP THOUGHTS
Glasnow will be 60-80% owned tonight but I do not see any value in pivoting off him.
Carlos Rodon will be right behind him
Good team getting overlooked tonight: Atlanta Braves — Hendricks has always been worse away from Wrigleyville
Good team getting too much love tonight: NY Yankees