Sunday Synchronicity today with both FanDuel and DraftKings having 10 games on their main 1:00 PM slates and then it looks like we have a good 4:00 PM Lazy Sunday Afternoon slate as well.
Overall the weather is warm but not extremely hot, but warm enough to like favorable hitting conditions today and there’s a good amount of parks where the wind is blowing out but not insane like it was on Friday night in a few areas.
Wind 10 mph or more out in these parks:
- Cards at Pirates
- Marlins at Nationals
- Tigers at Yankees
- Red Sox at Rangers – Pending roof information here
Wind is 10+mph just about everywhere else but the only spot where it’s definitively blowing in is
- Royals at Twins
All the rest are cross winds or slightly out. Probably the most notable one is in Chicago for Indians/White Sox at 16 mph winds there which is swirling. Cubs/Reds is next up for potential HR boost.
Roof should be open in Milwaukee unless they’re suddenly a bunch of wimps there.
Max Scherzer – (DK: $9,700, FD: $12,000)
Hey Marlins, some of us actually thought we could profit betting you. So much for that and what the hell is this lineup today? Isan Diaz, Jon Berti batting 1-2 then Lewis Brinson, Sandy Leon, Jose Devers, Monte Harrison batting 5 through 8. The combined ISO on these guys is less than the ISO of Tanner Roark if he got to hit against Jacob deGrom. What a disaster. Seroiusly, there is NO POWER in this lineup at all so Max if you give up all the homers today then just hang them up. I wasn’t gonna write up Max as the top play, but for sub 10k on DraftKings against this lineup???? No hitter alert.
Lucas Giolito – (DK: $8,600, FD: $10,600)
23-27 DK Fantasy points is what we should expect from Giolito today and he’ll push into that 50 territory range on FanDuel as well which makes him the #1 arm on this slate. Giolito’s leap into an Ace SP has come with him being extremely good against lefty bats as he strikes them out over 30% and has 3 years straight of allowing a really low xSLG below .340 to LHB. Combine this with the fact that the Indians lost their best power RH bat in Franmil Reyes because he looked at some woman and got her pregnant and we’ve got a scenario adding up where Giolito should cruise easily today. This will be his second start since the blow-up on Patriots Day in Boston and as I mentioned last time we can throw that game out because it was a rare 11 am start. One minor concern is the humidity in Chicago today, but it’s not like we are paying $12,000 for Giolito here.
So with it being a Sunday we should find some value bats out there and with that and the two guys above I am kinda just going against an old traditional “dont pay up for aces” on Sunday’s because these are two guys who are avoiding the usual danger factors on Sunday’s. But if you want some mid range longshots for extra lineups then today is always the day we see the mid range/out of left field pitchers do well. Here’s the longshot arms for today that I would consider in a multi-entry pool. This would be on DK only and would have to be guys under $7500.
- Mike Foltynewicz ($5,600) … Only if roof confirmed closed. Should be able to navigate around Xander and JD.
- Just play Max and Giolito
What about the other 8k-9k guys?
- Urias, Javier, Berrios, Anderson, Plesac, Kluber, Rogers … Yeah, I’m sure someone out there is gonna be trying to justify all these guys in some way. Guess what. None of them beat out Max or Giolito and they’re all within $1000 of those guys, you can mix and match hitting options to make Max and Giolito fit. So I’ll just spare your and my time and tell you dont play these guys over the others. There is NO leverage in going Marlins bats. The only leverage is Indians lefties against Giolito and even that’s praying IMO.
BRAVES
Unfortunately Braves are one team who haven’t posted a lineup yet as of 11:30 … Assuming it’s normal we ride them. If there’s something off here then we pivot and move on… Travis d’Arnaud is going to be out for a while so that is likely one reason for the delay. But if we have Acuna-Freeman-Ozuna-Albies then they’ll drop plenty of offense today.
One more time on the Atlanta train. I feel the same way about the Braves this afternoon as I did last night about the Angels against the Mariners. Stripling will be the starter for Toronto today and while I don’t have confirmation on how long he lasts I would put it under 4 IP. Atlanta’s a terrible spot for the Stripper and a day game in Dunedin just feels like a cheat code to be honest with you. Freeman will go yard today along with value bats on the Braves lineup.
REDS / CUBS
This game has 13-12 or 2-1 on it. This is a perfect 2 lineup game to sack both sides or stack the pitchers together. First on the Pitching side. Mahle is coming off back to back double digit strike-out games against the Cubs and given how much he has flipped his course against lefties that has potential to continue here but I never like picking on the Cubs when they are in Great American Ballpark so the preferred side is to stack up Heyward-Happ-Rizzo-Bryant-Baez from Chicago. Meanwhile, Trevor Williams just isn’t a great pitcher it seems unless it’s a … Sunday! But on the road here he’s walking into too much danger spots and Eugenio Suarez should look very comfortable today against T-Will. Again, look for some fireworks on the offensive side today after the little bru-ha-ha. Who else wants a Javy Baez dong here?
PIRATES / CARDINALS
Greg Polanco, Adam Frazier, Bryan Reynolds, Todd Frazier
Yes, the Cardinals are the top stack on the model and a lot of that is driven by the fact that Wil Crowe has limited big league data and it wasn’t very good when he pitched last. So the numbers are a little over inflated there but we’re also considering the idea that he’s a young and inexperienced pitcher that has to deal with (No Goldy!), Carpenter and Arenado. So Arenado will do some work here and we always love playing the overs in Cardinals/Pirates — but what if I told you the Pirates were the better value stack in this game? They’ve murdered Carlos Martinez, and quite frankly everyone else has this year as well. Good weather with wind blowing out in PNC today to left field so the RH batters get a big boost considering the park is hard to hit homers in to left field without wind helping.
Other teams to consider stacks from
- Yankees – Urena + Bad Bullpen + Good weather out
- Twins – Keller’s one spot he has pitched well is vs the Twins – but they’ll bounce back with a big win today.
- Red Sox / Rangers – All depends on roof status. Open is good.
CATCHER
- Alex Jackson
- Tony Wolters
- Andrew Knizner
FIRST BASE
- Freddie Freeman
- Max Muncy
- Jose Abreu
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Luis Arraez
- Jose Altuve – Rich Hill is tall. That is all…
- Matt Carpenter – LiPNC
THIRD BASE
- Nolan
- Mike Moustakas
- Todd …. No Todd, you don’t get to go by one name. You aren’t Nolan…. That would be Todd Frazier
SHORTSTOP
Very good position today. Better than 3B and 2B
- Trea Turner – I hate that he is batting third, he should be hitting lead off where he would Ambush Rogers. But still at the top of the list today.
- Javy Baez Go Boom
- Eugenio Suarez
- Dansby Swanson
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Jason Heyward
- Giancarlo Stanton … It has been a weekend of Double Dongs and Stanton has hits in six straight games and three hits in each of his last three games but no HR in that span. Welcome to the Stanton 2-HR game today against fellow former Marlin Jose Urena.
- Ronald Acuna
- Bryan Reynolds … Very pricey considering he is a Pie-Rat. However, if you roll Pirates, he’s gotta be in your lineup. Don’t be stupid there.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Joey Gallo
- Nick Castellanos / Jesse Winker
- Alex Verdugo
OUTFIELD – Value
- Gregory Polanco
- Dylan Carlson
- Jorge Soler
- Alex Kirilloff – My God this guy is murdering the Royals. Probably because some Royals fan said he sucks…. If you roll Twins, then its Kepler/Kiriloff that do the damage.
- Tyler O’Neill
- Freddie Freeman – 1B – Braves – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Giancarlo Stanton – OF – Yankees
- Jason Heyward – OF – Cubs
- Dylan Carlson – OF – Cardinals
- Tony Wolters – C – Cubs
- Eugenio Suarez – SS – Reds
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Todd Frazier – 3B – Pirates
- BONUS …………………….. Javy Baez – SS – Cubs
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
Chalk is not very clear today and I don’t love going all in on Dodgers/Red Sox but they are popular along with these teams below
- Yankees … Just play Stanton and move on.
- Twins … It’s not Buxton/Cruz who do the damage. Only core guy I like here is Josh Donaldson and then the bottom of the Twins order.
- Cardinals … Documented them above.
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP
- Braves … Not a 5 man stack spot unless you are including Jackson and Pache
- Reds
- White Sox … All depends on the wind
Best Leverage Spots
- Chicago Cubs
- Indians (Rosario/Ramirez)