I am definitely getting old because what used to be a comfortable morning in the mid 50’s for me is not driving at my bones in pain. So it’s comforting to see some games tonight in the mid 70’s around the league because that might finally get us to a point where the offenses can maybe start to get more comfortable.
We’re also seeing some younger pitchers start to hit a wall as guys like Brady Singer and Jose Urquidy the past two days have shown a major decrease in velo as they got into the 3rd/4th innings prompting a bad inning for Singer and a quick hook for Urquidy last night. There was some fear this would happen as most players haven’t thrown 2+ months worth of action for multiple years now and we could see teams have to shift to 6 man rotations or just sitting guys down for a couple of weeks. Just worth monitoring…
WEATHER
- Roof remains stupid in Tampa
- Warmer today in Boston, Colorado
- Roof open, or at least open mid game in Arizona
- Roof TBD in Seattle. Likely open
- Roof TBD in Houston.
Jameson Taillon (DK: $7,700 – FD: $7,700)
The rare same price on both sites pitcher. He has given up some power to both sides of the plate in 2021 but it’s offset a little bit here going into a good pitchers ballpark. With a K% just under 30% and facing the Rays who strikeout plenty he should be able to avoid major blow up today.
Zach Plesac (DK: $8,300 – FD: $8,400)
We are gonna wind up leaving money on the table on DK today with a few easy value spots and that is okay. Plesac has to beat out Javier here, and I think he will because the Rangers are hitting well away from home and Javier’s struggles are with LHB and long balls. Plesac on the other hand is just gonna be very boring, here’s a 1-2 count, there’s a ground ball to the left side, throw over to first. Yada yada yada. And then at the end of the game you’ll be like wait, I went Logan Gilbert, got 4 and 2/3 IP with 7 strikeouts but Plesac is sitting over there in the bottom of the 7th with a 2-1 lead and more DK points plus the win coming, why didn’t I just game stack going with a RHP against the fricken Mariners?
Logan Gilbert (DK: $4,000 – FD: $6,700)
Gilbert is one of the top SP prospects that will come up this season and his lack of normal price tag on DraftKings is annoying. He should be in the $6,000 range which would make him someone we could avoid using but this isn’t some 15th rated prospects for a big name organization getting too much ownership. He is justified and because of the price and the slate and a good match-up vs Cleveland I have to set aside my dont use rookie pitchers rule for Gilbert.
He’s from the same college that produced Jake deGrom and Corey Kluber and is a 6’6 RHP who has enough velocity to use his fastball as an out pitch and will produce enough strikeouts tonight to comfortably use him. His player comp is Chris Carpenter, a tall RHP who will fill into a decent sized frame and eventually be someone that can give the Mariners a lot of innings as a #2. He pitched one minor league game last week going 5 innings, striking out 5 and was with them fairly deep into the Spring so they won’t baby him too much tonight. I would guess 80 pitches is his ceiling, so expect him to make it through 4 innings for sure.
I don’t love picking on Cleveland going into Seattle, but for $4,000 this is a no-brainer.
UPDATE: FanDuel went and added Gilbert in the middle of the day. Holy fucking piece of shit fucking morons running the ship over there. He’s fine for use, but I prefer the others above him there.
Boston Red Sox
Sean Manaea sucks, plain and simple. His magic tricks and near no-no last week have been greatly inflated due to competition and the Oakland Colisseum. This ain’t Oakland pal, this is Fenway with warmer temps and a pissed off Xander/JD combination today.
Cincinnati Reds
Team who hits poorly on the road compared to home ventures into Coors Field vs Chi-Chi’s and they’re definitely going to be ordering some Chi-mi-changa’s today. Someone has to explain how even though he sucks, Nick Senzel is gonna be $3700 and leading off tonight? Enjoy that auto-play good chalk along with Winker (5100) and Naquin (4300).
Arizona Diamondbacks
They’ll get the LHP they wanted last night today and with the roof likely open in warm temps I’m all over picking on Rogers who is starting to show some regression signs from his hot start.
CATCHER
- Tucker Barnhardt
- Carson Kelly
FIRST BASE
- Mike Moustakas
- Michael Chavis
SECOND BASE
- Nick Senzel
- Eduardo Escobar
THIRD BASE
- Alex Bregman
- Asdrubal Cabrera
- Jose Ramirez – Leverage play of the day.
SHORTSTOP
- X gonna give it to ya
- Geno Suarez
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Nick Castellanos
- J.D. Martinez
- Jesse Winker
- Yordan Alvarez – White hot, but I lean Boston over Houston today.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Joey Gallo
- Willie Calhoun
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jarred Kelenic – This is the rookie we should be excited about tonight. He’s gonna be elite but Plesac is very good vs LH batters. Cheap $2k punt that you gotta consider if you are in trouble with salary cap today….
- Seth Brown
- Raimel Tapia
- Tim Locastro
The Dongers Club
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Red Sox – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- JD Martinez – OF – Red Sox
- Nick Senzel – 2B – Reds
- Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
- Carson Kelly – C – Diamondbacks
- Mike Moustakas – 1B – Reds
- Willie Calhoun – OF – Rangers
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Reds
- BONUS ………………….. Jose Ramirez – 3B – Indians
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Reds
- Astros
Team with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Boston Red Sox
- Diamondbacks
Top Leverage Plays
- Cleveland Indians – Ramirez/Rosario/Reyes
- Texas Rangers