So who is throwing a no hitter tonight? I kid but man this is getting crazy is it not? Just four games tonight and much like the early slate it’s a structure that you could argue game stack SP, pick your one team you want and put heavier weight onto a team that has the most leverage riding with them given the high ownership that is out there on a small slate.
But tonight’s not necessarily like that. In fact, the leverage play might be going against those who game stack SP in one game.
Let’s dive into it.
WEATHER
All clear. Wind blowing in heavily again in Dunedin for the Red Sox/Jays game but nothing we over-react too that much. Warm temps.
Here are my two pitchers that I trust the most tonight and when I say the most, it’s not saying that much. The Dodgers will be into a bullpen game most likely and I want no part of that.
Merrill Kelly – Diamondbacks
When evaluating the pitching options tonight almost every pitcher has a giant No flag on them with two exceptions. One of them is Mr. Smyly and the other is Mr. Kelly. The exception is that everyone else has disaster when you evaluate the actual hitters they are facing and Kelly just has disaster because of the perception of the ‘Dodgers’. Newsflash, these aren’t those same Dodgers. The lineup isn’t as potent and it’s not exactly raking right now. Kelly is someone we can trust to pitch 6+ innings today.
Drew Smyly – Braves
Drew Smyly as chalk might sound like it’s a terrible idea. And, well, it kind of is…. But It’s the Pirates and eventually the Braves have to blow up right? This is chalk I will take and just move on because Smyly is pitching very well and the Pirates offense is just the Pirates offense right now. Not great.
The Miami Marlins
Here is the leverage play of the day. Miami and Philadelphia are likely the spots where we could see ownersihp go to Alcantra and Velasquez. Vinnie is the main guy to target but I do like both sides in a very warm Citizens Bank Park (or at least warmer than it has been)
Tonight’s version of last night’s Baltimore Orioles is Miami. I would rather take a shit and wipe with public school toilet paper than roster Vincent Velasquez against the Marlins. Good news is Brian Anderson hit his home run last night so it’ll be another 3-4 weeks before he has another one so we can rule him out, but Rojas-Aguilar-Dickerson-Cooper will pick up the slack for Miami….
Jays vs Red Sox
This is the fill in game and I would be lying if I said I had a sneaky gut play on either side here. The wind is blowing in heavily again but the park is too good for it to completely keep the ball in the yard with Matz (who is fading) and Pivetta (really fading!) on the mound. So what does the “obvious” match-up say?
- Boston: JD & Xander with Renfroe as a good value
- Toronto: Bichette & Semien with Telez as good value
Atlanta Braves
Referenced above it’s now or never for Atlanta to score 13 runs and what better time than on a short 4 game slate where they are 30-40% owned most likely against Will Crowe. When the Braves score a ton of runs there are three key guys who have to pop off. Ozuna, Swanson, Riley.
CATCHER
- Sandy Leon
- J.T. Realmuto
FIRST BASE
- Jesus Aguilar
- Rowdy Telez
- Rhys Hoskins
SECOND BASE
Semien is the only option at 2B tonight in my mind unless you just punt and throw away the position. Too many cold bats here.
- Marcus Semien
THIRD BASE
Similar situation at 3B tonight, I can justify Bohm in a MIA/PHI game stack, but Riley is one of my favorite one offs today.
- Austin Riley – $3500 is great value on DK
SHORTSTOP
- Bo Bichette
- Miguel Rojas
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- Corey Dickerson
- JD Martinez
- Marcell Ozuna
- Garrett Cooper
OUTFIELD – Value
- Pavin Smith
- Bryan Reynolds
- Odubel Herrera
- Hunter Renfroe
The Dongers Club
- Odubell “Willie Mays Hays” Herrera – OF – Phillies – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Corey Dickerson – OF – Marlins
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Phillies
- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
- Miguel Rojas – SS – Marlins
- Marcus Semien – 2B – Blue Jays
- Hunter Renfroe – OF – Red Sox
- BONUS ………….. Marcell Ozuna – OF – Braves
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Blue Jays / Red Sox
- Braves
- Dodgers
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Boston
LEVERAGE STACKS
- Phillies / Marlins
- Pirates – If you fade Smyly then you might as well be rolling Pittsburgh. Not a bad park shift here which I guess could justify things but this lineup is just lacking power upside right now compared to other options out there.
DK SE Recommendation
- Smyly and Kelly
FD SE Recommendation
- Merrill Kelly
CORE HITTERS FOR SE
- Stack the Marlins in SE with Merrill Kelly tonight. Ride or die.
FAVORITE ONE OFFS
- Austin Riley
- Hunter Renfroe