Wooh boy it’s gettin hot outside and this Sunday slate has so many spots where in theory we could potentially see the ball flying out of the parks. I have a theory that catchers are raking more than other positional players this year because they’re getting more accustomed to seeing the new baseballs with the changed seams and maybe with the bright sun out in these parks today the rest of the hitters will start to see the ball well. Honestly though, what is up with all the damn catcher homers?
WEATHER
Yo, it’s warm… All games play and the roof likely open in Texas.
Zack Wheeler
Looks like a classic get away lineup from the Red Sox who have a long history of just punting the final game of a road trip. I think there’s a lot of risk in the high end pitchers today but Wheeler is the wild card that nobody is going to use despite him being extremely good at home like most of the Phillies Pitchers. With no JD Martinez and no Xander today he just got a much easier Red Sox lineup.
Max Fried
I wrote before his last start about how Max was going to start to trend towards pitching better after a rough couple of early starts and a stint on the IL. He was really good before existing with a “cramp” and should be perfectly fine today to log a solid outing again. And he’s facing the Pirates, how bad can it be?
Cody Poteet
This one is one of the easier write-ups of the weekend. Two starts into his career Poteet is built up enough to be able to throw 90+ pitches and his heavy strike throwing ability has led him to be able to get through 5 innings in each of his first two starts. It’s a very dicey pitching slate, so I do not mind taking the rookie considering he is pitching in South Beach on a Sunday against a Mets lineup that was no doubt ordering some bottle service on Lindor’s credit card last night.
Sunday Longshots
If ever there was a day to just take some longshots on pitching today is that day. You want some guys who are gonna pitch well that nobody expects but have a TON of risk?
- J.A. Happ pitches better, but he just isn’t gonna strike out 8 Indians or anything, so the upside isn’t there.
- Casey Mize had a really good start last week in Seattle and likely won’t replicate that, but should do good enough with the bottom of the KC Order to get 2.5x at his price
- Dallas Keuchel is gonna pitch well like he always does in Yankee Stadium
Everyone? Seriously, there isn’t a game besides the Mets/Miami that I don’t think has major stack upside today. So let’s filter things down and find the ones that I think have the most potential for a 7-10 run outburst.
Orioles vs Nationals
For those who don’t know I am about an hour in drive time west/northwest of DC and it’s hot as balls on a cicada. Note, Cicada’s don’t actually have balls but they might as well given how much noise they’re starting to make and these teams made a lot of noise themselves yesterday. On the hill we have Matt Harvey vs Patrick Corbin and so yeah, this is another 10-9 game. Trea Turner kept swinging like he wanted to drive one out yesterday and was under everything, so I would look for him to get that overdue HR today for the Nationals while Maikel Franco remains a high upside play at very low ownership given his history vs the Nationals and in this park. He sucks, but he can hit a homer off Corbin.
White Sox
Yankee starting pitchers have not allowed an earned run in four straight games. 50% of you will read that statement and ask “Then why the hell are you recommending a team against them”, and the other 50% of you are my kind of people because we know when that streak ends it ends hard. Wind is blowing out here and the difference between Taillon who is starting for NY and Keuchel who I think pitches well is that Keuchel will keep the ball on the ground (59%). Taillon wont (32%). Moncada, Abreu, Lamb and either Anderson/Hamilton give you the full White Sox 9 run stack.
Rays and Jays
Roller coaster type series which saw a high scoring Friday night game turn into a dud on Saturday night. Michael Wacha in day games usually peaks my interest, but Wacha as an OPENER vs a RH heavy lineup is a disaster and then Josh Fleming doesn’t grade out well at all vs Toronto either. Meanwhile the Rays continue to struggle with LHP but Ryu is not someone I think is going to control them as he struggled earlier this season vs them as well. Good park, good weather, good spot for an over bounce back today.
Brew Crew vs Red Legs
For a hedge stack person this is your best and easiest spot to look at. I don’t want Peralta and Castillo even though Castillo’s price remains dangerously low for his reputation around the industry. The reason I don’t want either is that they can get hit HARD when contact is made and in a tiny park in a day game with a hot Reds lineup and a dangerous LH lineup vs Castillo there’s a ton to like offensively. But if they are missing bats then obviously both guys have heavy strike-out upside. My lean is about 80% trust on the hitting getting the job done and for both teams it’s the LH hitters.
CATCHER
- Omar Narvaez
- Pedro Severino
- Yasmani Grandal
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu
- Jesus Aguilar
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
- Josh Bell
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Whit Merrifield
- Starlin Castro
- Kolten Wong
THIRD BASE
- Yoan Moncada
- Maikel Franco
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Freddy Galvis – DK Value but uh, play Trea …
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Austin Hays
- Christian Yelich
- Kyle Schwarber
- Alex Kiriloff
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Trey Mancini (Better as OF on FD than 5400 on DK at 1st)
- Jesse Winker / Nick Castellanos
- Juan Soto
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Max Kepler
OUTFIELD – Value
- Anthony Santander
- Jake Splish Splash Lamb
- Eric Haase
The Dongers Club
- Trea Turner – SS – Nationals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Kyle Schwarber – OF – Nationals
- Yoan Moncada – 3B – White Sox
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- Pedro Severino – C – Orioles
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Jesus Aguilar – 1B – Marlins
- BONUS 1………………. Maikel Franco – 3B – Orioles
- BONUS 2…………….. Alex Kiriloff – OF – Twins
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
- Nationals
- Astros
- Yankees
Team(s) with most upside getting overlooked and also not being attacked with a SP (i.e. Low owned secondary stacks)
- Orioles
- White Sox
- Twins
LEVERAGE PLAYS
- Brewers & Reds
DK SE SP Recommendation
- Wheeler & Poteet
FD SE Recommendation
- Fried
CORE HITTERS FOR SE
- Trea Turner
- Yoan Moncada
- Severino or Narvaez at Catcher
BETS
- White Sox ML
- Milwaukee/Cincinnati OVER 8.0
- Baltimore/Washington OVER 9.5
- Fuck it, bet the over in every game except … Red Sox vs Phillies, the Marlins will find a way to get the over by themselves against the Mets and yet the stack won’t work
QUICK OPINIONS / SUMMARY THOUGHTS
- The Braves are too costly, 2 guys hit a HR and that’s it
- Houston / Texas is getting overlooked if the roof does end up open, but the Texas RH batters are the sneaky play, they just dont rank high enough for me with a ton of games.
- Cincy/Milwaukee is 13-11 or 1-0