By now you probably already know that today is a short 3 game MLB slate as Baseball usually would have been holding the first round of their draft tonight but due to pandemic schedules impacting College and MLB they decided to finally do the smart thing and move the draft to occur during the All-Star Break (only they have it starting on the wrong day during the break, but hey, one step forward two steps backwards is still only one step backwards when referencing Rob Manfred’s Baseball).
So tonight we are left with three games, and honestly it was only going to be two games because one of them is an island make-up game between the Marlins and Red Sox and that game is only on FanDuel as DraftKings did not included it in their main slate. This day just gets weirder and weirder.
Luckily for Baseball fans like us, there are no rain issues for the three games today.
This is an extremely odd slate to write about tonight because there are three young kids/rookies pitching (one making a debut), the Marlins are using a fill in bullpen game and the other two guys are often shit their pants guys in Nick Pivetta and Dylan Bundy. One can easily take the approach of just go away from volatile chalk as outlined but I still view this being able to identify predictable spots.
On FanDuel you should fade Pivetta, play some Marlins and pick one of the options below. On DraftKings you should pick two and not be afraid to use a hitter against your pitcher for leverage tonight.
Adbert Alzolay
Alzolay’s weakness vs the Padres is going to be that they do not strike out a ton and the lefty bats. But the lefty bats are Cronenworth and Hosmer and considering the danger spots for the other pitchers tonight those are some fairly weak concerns overall. PETCO has played much more pitcher friendly than Anaheim as well, so leaning pitchers here is a priority for me tonight and Alzolay’s slider should get through that Padres lineup the first time without concern.
Jackson Kowar
Kowar is the kid making his debut and he’s the next of prized Royals prospects that you’re going to get used to seeing me write up. Kowar has a far higher ceiling in terms of swing and miss potential than Brady Singer, but even though he might not have Singer’s outward bulldog mentality, he is also someone who knows how to pitch really well coming in as a former college arm (Singers teammate at Florida) who has been cruising through AAA this season. The Royals held back Kowar longer than other pitching prospects because they wanted him to develop and trust a third pitch (Curveball) to go along with his elite Change-Up (as good as Strasbergs) and increasing velocity. Kowar is a big righty who gets an Angels team that has sky rocketted up in strikeouts of late. Imagine Chris Paddack only with more talent, a third pitch and more potential. I expect Jackson to pitch 4 2/3 IP tonight, strikeout 5 batters, walk three and give up a 2 run HR to Anthony Rendon.
Marlins
Marte, Duvall, Aguilar, Jazz
They’re going to destroy Nick Pivetta today and are the top stack on FanDuel. With this being only on FanDuel I cannot think of a higher leverage spot than the Marlins in good hitting conditions against a pitcher they have hit well and someone who has to pitch in a weird time spot. The Boston bats are a fade for me coming off the Yankees sweep and this will result in a Marlins 9-3 win.
Cubs
Baez, Contreras, Bryant, Pederson
Utilize the RH bats from the Cubs to start things off but if Joc is in the game then we have to like him as well as a return to Petco for Anthony Rizzo.
Royals
Santana, Benintendi
Bundy has just not been the same guy this year that he was last year, almost pitching like he doesn’t care that much. Benintendi and Santana look like really good plays vs Bundy tonight.
CATCHER
- Willson Contreras
FIRST BASE
- Jesus Aguilar – FD
- Carlos Santana
- Eric Hosmer
SECOND BASE
- Jazz Chisholm – FD
- Jake Cronenworth
THIRD BASE
- Anthony Rendon
- Isan Diaz – FD
SHORTSTOP
- Javier Baez
- Nicky Lopez
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Andrew Benintendi
- Kris Bryant
- Adam Duvall – FD
- Corey Dickerson – FD
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Starling Marte – FD
- Justin Upton
The Dongers Club
- Willson Contreras – C – Cubs – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Jesus Aguilar – 1B – Marlins
- Anthony Rendon – 3B – Angels
- Andrew Benintendi – OF – Royals
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
Chalkiest Stacks
Everyone is chalky tonight, but here’s who I would fade
- FanDuel: Boston offense
- DraftKings: Shohei Ohtani and Manny Machado
LEVERAGE PLAYS
Playing hitters (Cronenworth/Rendon) with your pitchers