Not much better in life than 15 games on a Friday in the dead middle of June. The Cubs are actually at home tonight but have an evening game most likely because they had a night road game last night, so even though it might be 2:20 EST (or whatever :20 in the time zone you are in) this afternoon and there isn’t a Cubs game on, I authorize you to start drinking at that time if you haven’t done so already. After all, it is a Federal Holiday!
ROUND THREE OF JUNE CONTEST:
No Rules tonight. I haven’t had a chance to pull the full leaderboard but will include it in tomorrow’s article.
https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/109634716
WEATHER
All games should play tonight. The Indians and Pirates battle in the LiPNC land with some lingering showers there but do you really want to use Chad Kuhl or Jean Carlos Mejia? No. Granted, Jean Carlos Mejia is a really cool fucking name, and one that is even cooler given that he has opted to not go with any hypens in the name. If you say it really fast Jean Carlos sounds like Giancarlo’s, so let’s just call him Mike Mejia, which sounds like the name of a male stripper who escaped from America to head south of the border and is now trying to make his way in Mexico.
Roof closed in Arizona — it is 111 degrees there.
TBD in Arlington and Houston, both games are warm as well.
Jose Berrios
It has often been said that Berrios is a warm weather pitcher and with a 25 and 28 in two of his last three starts we can start to see some data backing that up. Texas ballpark though is one we want the roof closed in and I would expect that to be the case tonight. Berrios’ recent form and the match-up for his price make him my favorite overall arm on a very middle of the road pitching slate.
Bick Dick Nick … Pivetta
It’s warm in Kauffman Stadium and on paper the Red Sox should blow out Kansas City tonight, so Pivetta automatically is in line to get the win and he is facing a lineup which has nearly 30% projected strikeout rate at the top of the order against his pitch types. Pivetta’s biggest concern normally is with a 10% walk rate but the Royals are dead last in pitches seen per PA, so he gets a big boost there and should have plenty of swinging strikes tonight to post a 6 inning and 7 strikeout win.
Zach Davies
Night games in Wrigley were tremendous a season ago and really have been for quite some time. A lot of the Cubs games so far this year have been day games at home but when it gets dark in Wrigley the rats come out and the games go under.
Yusei Kikuchi
… I say Zunino! Let’s hope Big Z sits tonight because the former Mariner catcher vs a LHP back in SafeCo (*T-Mobile*) seems about as sure of a thing at catcher. Outside of Z-tard though Kikuchi gets the benefit of lefties vs the Rays and he isn’t someone we suspect of any doctoring on the Baseballs as he mostly throws junk to begin with. It won’t be flashy, but at the end of the night he’ll be among the top 5 or 6 pitchers on the slate.
Toronto Blue Jays
!! Update !! Tom Eshelman starting instead of Bruce Zimmerman tonight. Changes nothing Go Jays !!!
…
Welcome back to Blue Jays weekend. Might not be as EXTREME as it was last weekend in Fenway Park, but these boys murder Camden Yards and we have one of the best plays of the weekend at low ownership tonight in Cavan Biggio assuming they don’t sit him vs a LHP….
Why is he a great play? Well, it’s more than his .370/.453/.889 slash line in 11 career Camden Yards games, and his 6 homers, 2 doubles and a triple in those games as well. He’s been back in the lineup long enough now and just missed a 2-run homer last night so his form is good and even though LHP Bruce Zimmerman is starting, the chances that he lasts longer than 4 innings having to deal with Bichette, Vlad, Semien, Lourdes and Grichuk is extremely low, so Biggio will get a single off Zimm and then rake off the bullpen, making him the key to a Jays stack tonight.
Even if he is out though, the Jays are #1 tonight, as I mentioned above that RH heavy top of the order spells doom for Zimmerman.
Boston Red Sox
It’s not clear who or what is going to pitch for Kansas City tonight and honestly it doesn’t matter. Smart money says Kowar gets the ball at some point and I love the talent on Jackson Kowar, but it’s clear the Royals don’t have an approach for him at the big league level to get his mind right. Xander Bogaerts and Raffy Devers to me are two of the best plays on the board tonight in prime RBI spots but the price discount on JD Martinez and the due factor of him going yard twice today make it such that JD is the one you have to not punt. Play three studs from Boston along with value Kike, Dalbec or Arroyo.
LA Dodgers
See below, this game is going to go off. Too the moon and LA is going to do their part as they always dominate the Diamondbacks in Chase Field.
FANTASTIC LEVERAGE PLAYS
Arizona Diamondbacks
A little law of averages in Arizona just not winning at all and the karma factor of Rob Manfred poking needles into the voodoo doll he has on Trevor Bauer to shut him up. You don’t think that there was a phone call made to Arizona to swap out the shitty balls tonight and replace them with juiced balls that do not go into the humidor? Oh, this one is going to be a fucking shit show fellas as Trevor Bauer is going into the stadium where he started his career with.
Other offenses I like (for the MME person)
Atlanta … vs Carlos Martinez and welcome to the third time this season when everyone has been stacking Atlanta all week only to jump off right as the 1-4 part of the order drops a 4 HR game.
Chicago White Sox … Love Abreu and Moncada today along with Engel/Lamb value.
St. Louis … This island I am on. It’s nice and comfy, and damnit the Cardinals are gonna go off in Atlanta one of these days….
CATCHER
- Mike Zunino
- Riley Adams
- Christian Vasquez
FIRST BASE
- Vlad G Jr.
- Freddie Freeman
- Jose Abreu
- Carlos Santana
SECOND BASE
- Marcus Semien
- Luis Guillorme
- Eduardo Escobar
THIRD BASE
- Cavan Biggio – Use at 2B on FD, use at OF on DK or just ignore me and play him at 3B on both…. Hopefully they start him.
- Yoan Moncada
- Rafael Devers
- Justin Turner
SHORTSTOP
Loaded
- Beaux Bichette
- Xander Bogaerts
- Trea Turner
- Francisco Lindor
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Randal Grichuk
- David Peralta – $2400 on DK
- JD Martinez
- Mookie Betts
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Ramon Laureano
- Shohei Ohtani
- Mitch Haniger
- Ketel Marte
OUTFIELD – Value
- A.J. Pollock
- Steven Souza Jr.
- Eddie Rosario – LiPNC
- Adam Engel
The Dongers Club
- Cavan Biggio – 2B/OF – Toronto Blue Jays – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Randal Grichuk – OF – Blue Jays – Replacement Chairman if Cavan sits
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- Justin Turner – 3B – Dodgers
- David Peralta – OF – Diamondbacks
- Marcus Semien – 2B – Blue Jays
- Mike Zunino – C – Mariners
- Elvis Andrus – SS – Athletics
- BONUS ………………… JD Martinez – OF – Red Sox
BETS
- Blue Jays / Orioles OVER 9.5
- Dodgers / Diamondbacks OVER .5
- Rays / Mariners UNDER 7.5
- Chicago White Sox ML
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)
Brewers, Blue Jays
LOW(er) OWNED GOOD TEAMS
Red Sox
LEVERAGE STACKS/PLAYS
Diamondbacks
DK PITCHERS
Pivetta and Berrios
Davies and Kikuchi
FD PITCHERS
Berrios
CORE HITTERS
JD Martinez
Cavan Biggio / Randal Grichuk / Another Blue Jay top of order
Pay up at 1B