Usually Thursday’s are reserved for get away days, not today friends. We have SEVEN new series that start up tonight and they feature some juicy, juicy, match-ups for this weekend. Let me check my calendar. Yep, I have not a damn thing in the world to do this weekend so lets talk about how we can stack the Pirates and Cardinals and win all the money.
Wait, did I just say Pirates and Cardinals?
A tradition, unlike any other, and one that would even make Jim Nantz happy. When the Pirates and Cardinals play, we bet the overs. It’s that simple ladies and gentlemen.
So what else, does this weekend have in store for us? Well, it has the Orioles heading to humidor Sahlen Field to take on the Blue Jays.
I really got nothing on this that isn’t obvious, so let’s just move right along and talk about the Nationals heading to South Beach. Oh lordie lordie lordie. We have the Nationals playing with lots of emotion and lots of energy over the last week going down to South Beach. A team who was all fired up to have Baby Shark Parra back, then Schwarber hits 3 HR, then they go into Philadelphia and that idiot Girardi gets Max and the team all fired up to the point that even Josh Motha Fucka Bell (**** OFFICIALLY PATENTED NICKNAME ****) hits a G-Damn grand slam yesterday. And please note, when I say Motha Fucka, it has to be said at the right pace, not too fast, not too slow. Like … Mothaa *slight pause* Fucka…. Not Fuckin, Fucka…. Oh, so where was I? Yes, uh, Ryan Zimmerman, Mr. Florida Man homer, ok, and then the Nationals no doubt… NO DOUBT…. No doubt they put up a 0 on Sunday.
The Braves. The not very good offensively on the road Braves. Visit the worst bullpen in the National League right now in tiny Cincinnati Ballpark. I smell myself a multi-HR bullshit game from some 7 hole hitter on the Bravos. Should be fun.
Houston is at Detroit.
Cleveland heads to Minnesota… Oh man. Jose Ramirez is gonna play and it’s the return of Eddie Rosario to Target Field on a weekend. Hot damn. Franmil Reyes is in rehab and not from murdering anyone or anything like that, rehab for his injury people. So I think he is close but not quite there yet and the Twins are obviously back healthy too. Should be a fun one.
and then we have Cubs at Dodgers.
WEATHER
All games play
The collective group of pitching options tonight is not one that really gives you a lot of comfort when assessing who to utilize tonight.
Joe Ross
Whoever the hell came up with the term do not look a gift horse in the mouth was clearly referencing Joe Ross on a Thursday vs the Marlins in Miami, right? Maybe? I mean, it’s Joe Ross, he’s been our sneaky wild card pitcher all season long so surely he can do it one more time. As you can tell, I am not rushing to this one as the top play today but I’m probably over thinking things. Ross gets a good amount of ground balls and opponents have an xAVG of .236 this season against him, which you really didn’t need to know since you could use our fandy dandy Dashboard tool here that is included in your monthly subscription fee as a fantastic loyal member — but by listing it it provides a little bit of confidence does it not? Joe Ross. 7 innings. 5 strikeouts. And a win….
Luis H(ow you doin). Garcia
Garcia is facing Detroit, home of the Tigers. But these aren’t the April Tigers because Jonathan Schoop is out of his fricken mind in the month of June so far. That said, I cannot find much fault in using Garcia today against the Tigers, so he’s in our mix on DK.
Walker Buehler
We have a long list of MLB “rules” and “narratives” that we mention at times here in the Dongers Club and one of the ones added in the past two seasons is not to touch the Padres and Dodgers after they just played a series against each other. But Walker is one of the pitchers tonight that I am confident in giving us 6 innings with a good amount of strikeouts too. This game features the return of Joc Pederson to Chavez Ravine but one hitter returning back to his former home stadium should not scare us away from the top pitcher tonight. Buehler has always been extremely consistent as a home pitcher and the Cubs have not been very good away from Wrigley this season — so take his 6.1 IP, 8 K and 2 ER and move along even though he is costly.
There is a distinct theme on the games tonight as I evaluate them and that is that we can most certainly go the game stack route tonight. Now, in Baseball a gamestack is usually driven by the combination of Weather and Stadium to make it a scenario for a back and forth high scoring affair. Obviously there’s no tempo or pace factor like in clock sports but it just so happens that tonight we have the stars aligning for some good game stacks — and a couple are very contrarian IMO.
Braves at Reds
The Atlanta Braves have decided not to start Josh Tomlin tonight as an opener. Instead they have selected Jesse Chavez to do the fine work of serving up first inning runs on the road. You remember Jesse Chavez Right? The Former Athletic…..
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No? Oh, how about when he was with the Royals?
Still not ringing a bell? Okay, surely you remember him with the Pirates?
Well shoot… How about the Dodgers?
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Blue Jays?
Angels?
Cubs?????
Rangers???
Well, guess what… He’s on the Braves now, and he might only pitch one inning, but at least he isn’t in prison…. At least not yet …. He sucks. Newcomb sucks. Braves bullpen sucks and there’s a long fly ball and that will make it a 4-0 Ballgame for Nick Castellanos and the Reds…. Meanwhile, Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley look good for the Braves in a full game stack scenario.
Orioles at Blue Jays
Don’t sleep on the Orioles side here against a good amount of Jays bullpen today. It’s basically a lateral park shift even with the new “humidor” in Sahlen Field and the Santander-Galvis-Franco part of the Baltimore lineup is the best value stack I see on tonight’s slate. For the Jays, you know the drill but really beyond Bo and Vlad it’s time for Springer to get going against a heavy fastballer like Kremer.
Buccoos vs Red Birds
Traditions unlike any other and we start off with a banger as Chad Kuhl vs Carlos Martinez should mean a ton of base runners on both sides in this game and a final score like 9-6. Great weather in St. Louis as well to help things out tonight and the Pirates don’t strike out so they should have a good time putting the ball in play against C-Mart at low ownership once again… Because after all, they are the Pirates but this game is going over.
Game that just missed the cut
Indians at Twins
CATCHER
- William Contreras
- Yadier Molina
FIRST BASE
- Colin Moran … $2500 for a clean up Pirate against C-Mart in a game with a lot of runs in it. Sign. Me. Up.
- Freddie Freeman
- Ryan Zimmerman
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies
- Max Muncy
- Cesar Hernandez
THIRD BASE
- Austin Riley
- Eugenio Suarez
- Jose Ramirez
SHORTSTOP
- Beaux Bichette
- Dansby Swanson
- Fred Galvis
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Nick Castellanos
- Michael Brantley
- Alex Verdugo
- Eddie Rosario
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- George Springer
- Alex Kiriloff
- Jesse Winker
- Joc Pederson … Yeah Yeah, Joc back in L.A….
OUTFIELD – Value
- Bryan Reynolds
- Dylan Carlson
The Dongers Club
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Reds – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Ryan Zimmerman – 1B – Nationals
- Ozzie Albies – 2B – Braves
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates
- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
- Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
- William Contreras – C – Braves
- Alex Verdugo – OF – Red Sox
- BONUS ………………………….. Eddie Rosario – OF – Indians
BETS
- Pirates/Cardinals OVER
- Braves/Reds Runs in the 1st Inning – Si, Senor
LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS
THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)
Blue Jays, Astros, Dodgers
LOW(er) OWNED GOOD TEAMS
Reds, Twins
LEVERAGE STACKS/PLAYS
Indians
DK PITCHERS
Garcia & Ross
FD PITCHERS
Buehler
CORE HITTERS
Castellanos
Albies
Colin Moran