DAILY-AMBUSH · July 7, 2021

The Dongers Club – July 7th (Early)

There are five games on DraftKings early slate and four on FanDuel.  Neither site has deGrom vs Burnes in the double header for the Brewers-Mets today because it was PPD late last night after the slates were posted.  The game difference is of course a 7 inning tilt down in Tampa as DK has the Indians/Rays early game today.

The other four games on this early slate include

Braves at Pirates … as the Pirates go for a sweep of the Braves

White Sox at Twins … It has cooled off quite a bit here

Tigers at Rangers … Hey, random question.  What the hell happened to Julio Teheran?  Dude just up and said I’m out with a “shoulder” injury this year?

Reds at Royals … Sonny vs Singer

Eyes Emoji (U+1F440)

No weather concerns with good wind out in Kansas City to RF — should play well for LH hitters here and good warm weather in all other games except for obviously the Tropicana Field game and the Minnesota game.

 

Casey Mize

Mize has made his way to the tier of being considered as an SP1.  Opponents are hitting just .234 off him this season and RH batters have been unable to generate any hard contact off his secondary pitches all season.  The southern boy should pitch well down in Texas against the Rangers today and gets a nice boost if the roof closes.

Kyle Gibson

After a high scoring game last night this looks like a good lower scoring game in Texas today and one that on a short 5 game slate we can get away with a SP stack in.  It comes down to Gibson vs Lynn for me on DK as the second pitcher with Mize and I expect similar games from the two of them.  Gibsons home strikeout splits are significantly higher this season as well and when he gets weaker offenses he usually excels.  He’s the safer choice.

 

Other guy who probably fares well:  Drew Smyly

 

 

Chicago White Sox

The one team I would lock in on, even in lesser hitting conditions than Monday would be the White Sox.  Michael Pineda was a know cheater as he wouldn’t even try to hide the pine tar on his neck in games and he has been absolutely horrific since the crackdown on pitchers.  I would expect a big game from Chicago today.

 

Other spots …

There is just nothing about that Indians/Rays game that I want to touch on offensively and that doesn’t mean the pitchers are great choices either in a shorter game.  Just lots of reasons for it and we can cross that one off.

The Reds and the Royals likely have a lot of chalk ownership today but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a low strikeout, highly efficient game from both Gray and Singer with each giving up a solo HR or two.  So this is the first game we look at and for the Reds side the LH hitters like Tyler Naquin and Jesse Winker are the main focus and Joey Votto will no doubt walk against Singer at least once, probably twice.  Kansas City has an under-priced Andrew Benintendi as the only real bat on their side I am considering.

The game that I have the most interest in for a 7-5 type final score would be the Braves and Pirates, can the Pirates really sweep Atlanta?  Not likely, but we can’t keep pretending that Atlanta is a good team this season.  That said, Wil Crowe has been hit hard and especially by the RHH, so Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley are the first two Braves we should lock into lineups today.

 

 

CATCHER

  1. Mike Zunino
  2. William Contreras
  3. Tyler Stephenson

FIRST BASE

  1. Jose Abreu
  2. Freddie Freeman
  3. Joey Votto

SECOND BASE

  1. Adam Frazier
  2. Leury Garcia

THIRD BASE

  1. Austin Riley
  2. Yoan Moncada

SHORTSTOP

  1. Dansby Swanson
  2. Kevin Newman

OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore

  1. Tyler Naquin
  2. Jesse Winker
  3. Ronald Acuna Jr
  4. Jesse Winker

OUTFIELD – Value

  1. Andrew Benintendi
  2. Andrew Vaughn
  3. Franmil Reyes – $3000??? WHAT????   This is the best value on the slate even in a 7 inning game.

 

The Dongers Club

Tyler Naquin – OF – Reds – Chairman of The Dongers Club

 

HR PARLAYS

Naquin – Reyes – Abreu

 

BETS

Braves / White Sox / Tigers Parlay

 

LINEUP CONSTRUCTION THOUGHTS

THE HIGHEST CHALK STACK(S)

Braves, Reds

LOW(er) OWNED GOOD TEAMS

White Sox

LEVERAGE STACKS/PLAYS

None

DK PITCHERS

Mize and Gibson

FD PITCHERS

Mize

CORE HITTERS

Tyler Naquin

Austin Riley

Franmil Reyes (DK)

 

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