My confidence is really good as we head into the all-star break and it all has to do with being consistent. Baseball isn’t something that I just come into and dabble with and then bail and as a reminder this is not the DFS sport that you should be chasing the 100x returns on a nightly basis. This is a sport about consistency and being willing to accept that a 4x or 5x night or afternoon is really good. Such has been the case over the last 7-10 days. There have been plenty of hits around the misses like the Max/Darvish Thursday night for me. But the ability to bounce back on Friday and then finding a way to get 3x or 4x after a loss consistently is how you sustain success in a long season sport like Baseball. I really expect to continue this in the second half and come August there will be more football blood in the water, which undoubtedly brings higher chalk and optimizer chalk but also more success down the stretch.
There will not be any content during the All-Star break from a DFS perspective, but there will be some stuff heading into the second half of the season which should come later this week. If you want some betting plays for the Home Run Derby or the All Star game itself then pop in the Discord where I am sure we’ll be sweating out shit we shouldn’t be sweating out when it comes to prop bets.
For now, we hammer into Sunday and it’s the day before a nice vacation for most players, so someone who might be struggling isn’t exactly going to come out today and get on fire at the plate but I also don’t think you’re necessarily going to see a bunch of 2-0 scores because we’re going to have relievers needing work getting work and we’re probably not gonna see anyone doing anything to injure themselves (which never ends well). So treat the slate like a normal one and let the chips fall where they may.
WEATHER
A lot of rain in Cleveland so lets just wipe off the Royals-Indians and have them make that game up at a later date. Please, Cleveland. Call the game.
We should get a CLOSED roof in Milwaukee due to the threat of rain
We should see the Cardinals/Cubs get their game in despite some lingering showers. Wind is blowing IN off the lake.
Jose Berrios
Today’s chalk “Ace” is Brandon Woodruff and my pivot off his upside (besides Lopez) is Jose Berrios, who has really pitched well of late. Ever since the Twins let Berrios go 8 innings against the Orioles back on May 25th he has turned the corner and become very reliable. Five of his six starts since then have gone 6+ innings, his CSW% has been near 30%, including a 38.5 and 35.6 in two of his last three and his curve ball has once again been an elite pitch. He is very good at home and should have his way with the Tigers this afternoon in that setting.
Pablo Lopez
So we have a unique scenario here on the ole South Beach Theory. It looked like we would get a team in South Beach right before the all-star break which was previously going to be in their home city but has now been relocated and so pretty much the entire Braves team was looking at a night in Miami right before a vacation from doing anything at all. And then Acuna went and got hurt and killed the entire buzz around this team. Do you honestly think the Braves are going to want to play today after Acuna’s injury and the way their season has gone? Not a chance in hell and the perfect storm of getting Pablo at home on a Sunday here is just additional music to the ears.
Jameson Taillon
This is the first ever start in Houston, TX as a pro for Jameson Taillon who was drafted out of a local high school back in the 2010 draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates. In case you haven’t heard every Astro who was selected to the all-star game has opted out (likely because they don’t want to deal with the media and getting boo’d) and should not have been dominated by Gerrit Cole last night like they were. Today, Taillon is my sleeper pitcher to not only ride the narrative of him returning back to his local area, but also to have a productive game against one of the teams who definitely has shown signs of heading out on vacation early. Correa is out, Altuve is 1 for his last 10 and the Astros as a team have scored just 1 run in their last three games and 0 in this series so far. So either they are popping off for 8 today or going to score just 1 run on a solo HR from either Kyle Tucker or Yordan Alvarez.
Also expect to pitch well: Ian Anderson, Trevor Williams
Fading: Woodruff, Bassitt, Cease
Still stubbornly dont trust: Robbie Ray
Alright, so the Baseball God’s are laughing at me because there appears to be very little offense today outside of the obvious spots.
Baltimore vs Chicago
BAL: Mullins, Santander, Mancini
CWS: Moncada, Abreu, Anderson, Goodwin
I lead with Baltimore here because they should not get overlooked when they are at home in a good hitting environment. Not really hot in B-More today but wind is blowing out to left which can help carry the ball to the spot where it really doesn’t need help carrying in Camden. If Baltimore does damage it will come from Mullins, Santander and Mancini.
Chicago meanwhile gets to face Spenser Watkins. No relation to Sammy and certainly not relation to being good considering his name is f’n Spenser. The kids parents hated him so much they couldn’t even name him Spencer with a C, they had to name him Spenser with an S because he is so special. I kid of course, this is actually a pretty cool story as he was a 30th round draft pick by the Tigers back in 2014 and now he is pitching in the big leagues and will later be the answer to the trivia question of who was that guy that gave up back to back HR to Moncada and Abreu?
NY Mets
Nimmo, Conforto, Alonso, McCann, Lindor
The best under the radar team today should be the NY Mets, who come in with most of their guys hitting fairly well right now. In fact, the projected starting lineup for the Mets today has scored fantasy points in every single game of this series thus far and the table setter Brandon Nimmo is doing Brandon Nimmo things lately, which is getting on base, causing havok and scoring runs. Only Pete – I don’t hit many HR at home – Alonso is above $5,000 on DraftKings today so for the 5 man stacking crowd, this is your team to load up on today in a good high scoring game with the Pirates and Chase The Dong on the hill.
Philly vs Boston
Harper/Devers
This has been a good series thus far with two lopsided wins and today we’ll get a more competitive game with neither team scoring 10+ runs but it should finish 5-4 and the Phillies get to face Nick Pivetta ladies and gentlemen!!!! Combine that with Nola not only on the road but in a day game and we’ve got ourselves a Raffy Devers/Bryce Harper HR special.
UPDATE: Aaron Nola scratched because of … uh, COVID protocols? Ummm, alright…. Still no word on who the Phils are rolling out, boost for Kike Hernandez on Boston IMO no matter who starts because he would blindly run into a lead off double.
CATCHER
Catchers going into good ballparks is the system to ride right now.
- Zack Collins … Bottom of the order value on the White Sox, likely produces off Orioles bullpen if anything.
- J.T. Realmuto
- James McCann
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu … Spenser Watkins throws primarily a Cutter and Abreu has hammered RH cutters his whole career, including a .766 xSLG in 2021.
- Trey Mancini
- John Nogowski … You either pay up for Abreu/Mancini or you punt with the green eyed Nogowski who is on fire and under 3k.
SECOND BASE
- Jean Segura
- Jorge Polanco
- Nick Solak
THIRD BASE
- Yoan Moncada … Yes, his $5,600 price tag on DK is very high and it is very high for a reason today — there isn’t an easier button to press on FD than Moncada at $2,800.
- Rafael Devers
- Alec Bohm
SHORTSTOP
- Francisco Lindor
- Tim Anderson … I am prioritizing Moncada/Abreu over Anderson, but if you go value everywhere else he is the third guy on the White Sox.
- Ramon Urias
- Didi Gregorius
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
Today is the day of the Outfielders after yesterday seemed to be the day of the middle infielders. So many HR upside plays in the OF today.
- Harper, Bryce
- Michael Conforto – Heart of the order value on the Mets stack. Conforto and/or Nimmo are must plays today.
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Anthony Santander
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Brandon Nimmo
- Kyle Tucker
- Cedric Mullins
- Brian Goodwin
OUTFIELD – Value
- Alex Kiriloff – $3400 is criminal vs Wily Peralta
- Adam Engel
- Max Kepler
The Dongers Club
- Michael Conforto – OF – Mets – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- Alex Kiriloff – OF – Twins
- Anthony Santander – OF – Orioles
- Yoan Moncada – 3B – White Sox
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
- Nick Solak – 2B – Rangers
- BONUS ……………. Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
HR PARLAY
Conforto – Abreu – Kiriloff – Harper
BETS
- Pirates / Mets OVER
- Twins -1.5
- Texas Rangers ML
- White Sox / Orioles OVER 10.5
The Chalkiest Stacks
White Sox
Twins
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
Blue Jays … They are in no mans land today. Considered a bad park but facing a pitcher who has really struggled since the crack down on substances in Rich Hill – that said, Hill’s struggles have mostly been in really humid/warm games and this is obviously a controlled temp environment.
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
Jameson Taillon
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
Berrios and Lopez
Favorite CORE Combo’s
Abreu & Moncada
Nimmo & Conforto