While I am very public about jokingly poking fun at the fantasy football talk in April, May and June – I usually do start opening things up post July 4th and highly anticipate the start of training camps in August. My personal opinion though is that I prefer to do drafts in mid to late August because I’m not one who wants to really bother with any injuries that happen in training camp and I prefer certainty over lots of unknowns. I think you can still put together a good draft and in the league formats I prefer (ahem, Auctions!) you can go get the guys that you want rather than worrying about ADP rankings.
The same is actually true though when it comes to standard re-drafts or even the famed dynasty-league crowd who are out there adding on new rookies or in spots where you can only keep 3 or a hand full of players from the year before. My draft strategy is go get the guys you want, even if their ADP is a couple rounds lower. Fantasy football is so variable driven based upon injuries and finding those two players who far out perform their expectations. The amount of players who are drafted very late or undrafted entirely in standard leagues that wind up winning the league is far greater in football than say Baseball or Basketball seasonal fantasy leagues. And yes, there is a lot of luck involved in that, but when I have had the most success is when I have managed to get teams put together which have fewer busts in them. Consistency, depth and balance are the areas that tend to produce the best rosters rather than having that 1 or 2 magical break through player.
So to get to this point, I like to put players into three categories as I do with picking teams to bet on from a seasonal wins standpoint or player props as well. I call this the Buy / Hold / Sell strategy. And simply put, a Buy is someone I am targeting at my value not where the consensus has them, a hold is someone I would gladly take but am not going to go crazy for and a Sell is someone I won’t take in any scenario, no matter how far they fall.
I also try not to rank the first two rounds worth of players, as these mostly are going to wind up being spots where if you are doing multiple leagues you likely want some diversity but in reality if you get the 3rd pick or the 10th pick you really are going to change up who you take and it’s less about Buy and Hold in those spots and more about identifying your Sell’s in the top rounds. So lets focus on players who are expected to go after the 2nd round of drafts only right now.
QUARTERBACK
Buy: Joe Burrow (7th round)
There isn’t a QB I am going to be higher on to start the 2021 season than the prior years #1 draft pick Joe Burrow. He is coming off a rough ACL/MCL injury from the middle of last season but now has even more weaponry with J’Marr Chase who is a once every 5 year type WR talent to go along with Tee Higgins and the seemingly forgotten PPR machine Tyler Boyd. The offense is going to put up points and while many point to the offensive line as a weakness I would remind you that Dak Prescott was dominating last season with a really banged up and degraded offensive line and a poor defense. Burrow is in that exact same scenario this year with similar weapons and the added bonus of being a second year QB — when Quarterbacks make their biggest leap.
Other buys:
- Carson Wentz
- DeShaun Watson: You are getting a top 5 QB for free drafting him as your 3rd QB right now. There’s no reason to think that he is going to just sit out the entire season because the story of his misconduct allegations has completely died off and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him wind up with just a 4 game suspension and possibly a trade.
- Jameis Winston: Like Watson he is going undrafted almost right now and serves as a great best ball 3rd QB. He will win the job.
Holds:
- Ryan Tannehill
- Aaron Rodgers
Sells:
- Lamar Jackson
- Matt Ryan
- Kirk Cousins
RUNNING BACK
Buy: Javian Hawkins (15th round)
A lot can change in the next month but in the case of Hawkins it most likely will only change for the better. A little sneak preview, he is right now the leader in the clubhouse for the Sleeper RB pick of the year for me. Which in the past four seasons has been (Alvin Kamara — his rookie year in 2017, James Conner in 2018, Justin Jackson in 2019 and Antonio Gibson in 2020). So three of the four have worked out really well here and Hawkins is one of two guys that I am narrowing down to be this years sleeper RB.
The path for success is there in Atlanta and I can see him having a really good rookie catch season as a home run threat. Atlanta has brought in Mike Davis to try and get 3 yards and a cloud of dust behind a still below average offensive line – and we know exactly what he is, we know exactly what Quadree Ollison is too. They say that RB is all about volume and I say that volume is all about talent. Hawkins has the talent and in an environment that is going to be passing the ball a good amount still he should thrive as the main pass catching back in this offense — which oh by the way — lost Julio Jones. Don’t be shocked when it’s Hawkins and not Kyle Pitts who is the rookie in Atlanta that is winning fantasy leagues this year.
Other buys:
- Kenneth Gainwell (PHI)
- D’Andre Swift (DET) – He should be a top 10 RB
- Myles Gaskin (MIA) – ADP of 24th RB is probably too low
Holds:
- Cam Akers (LA)
- Alvin Kamara (NO) – He’s going to continue to fall I think and should not be out of the top 5.
- Saquan Barkley (NYG) – Don’t be afraid of Barkley
Sells:
- David Montgomery (CHI)
- Nick Chubb (CLE)
- Aaron Jones (GB)
WIDE RECEIVER
Buy: Michael Pittman (8th round)
Pittman is the best WR on the Colts in my mind, and I stated this before last season when Parris Campbell was getting all the love and I will stand by it through their careers. Pittman was an absolute beast in college and is someone who is going to get peppered with love from Carson Wentz — who always liked his big WR in Philadelphia. Pittman at 6’4 gives him that primary target weapon and should lead the Colts in receptions and receiving touchdowns this season. His current ADP range is that of the 44th WR and it should be about 20 spots higher up there with the Diontae Johnson/Cooper Kupp/Adam Theilen range.
Other buys:
- Ja’Marr Chase (CIN)
- Deebo Samuel (SF)
- Deonte Harris (NO) – He is their #2 that you want, not Tre’Quan
Holds:
- DK Metcalf (SEA)
- Diontae Johnson (PIT)
- DeVante Parker (MIA) … I’m not going to push him into the buy category because there’s a lot of good options on this team, but all it takes is one or two of those options to be banged up and he moves back into the tier 1 category at WR.
Sells:
- Tyreek Hill (KC) … You can have him there, the depth at WR is too good to spend premium on Tyreek IMO.
- Justin Jefferson (MIN)
- Odell Beckham (CLE) … #NeverOdell
TIGHT END
Buy: George Kittle (2nd/3rd round)
Historically I have been one to try and get by with a second tier Tight End and I’ll probably stick to that mold but both George Kittle to me is in line to have even more of a career/career type seasons than before which is saying quite a bit. With a rookie QB coming in and an incredible amount of depth at WR and even RB Kittle is going to be the one guy who consistently performs on the 49ers and is worth spending an early pick on to secure certainty at Tight End.
Kittle has a far better chance of being the #1 TE than Darren Waller in my mind and Waller is going ahead of him in many rankings. Of the four BUYS right now he is the one I would be most willing to forgo because of where you wind up drafting but in an auction format I would spend up for Kittle.
Other buys:
- Dallas Goedert (PHI)
- TJ Hockenson (DET)
Holds:
- Adam Trautman (NO)
- Mike Gesecki (MIA)
Sells:
- Darren Waller (LV)
- Kyle Pitts (ATL)
DEFENSE
There is no single team right now that I am bullish on going after on defense right now and it’s likely to remain that way, but there are ones which I am leaning over others.
Buys:
- Tampa Bay … They will be a very consistent defense who should be in many 3rd/4th quarter scenarios that are beneficial to defenses getting sacks and turnovers.
- San Francisco
Holds:
- Cleveland … This is the most likely team to climb up for me between now and mid-August when my “draft season” really kicks in.
- New Orleans … High sack volume and good special teams translates well here.
Sells:
- Washington
The next Buy/Hold/Sell will be in Mid-August
My ideal draft right now …
I subscribe to the strategy that when you identify a player you want you draft them instead of waiting for where their “ADP” is being pushed into. Obviously it doesn’t mean drafting someone 5 rounds ahead of where the rest of the field is necessarily going to draft them in the top 10 rounds, but don’t wait for your guy. And when it comes to round 11 and beyond, ADP does not matter.
1st: RB … This has nothing to do with hating on the Zero-RB theory and everything to do with the fact that the depth is at WR and not RB. It’s that simple for me.
2nd: Kittle
3rd: WR/RB
4th: RB/WR
5th: WR
6th: WR
7th: Burrow
8th: Pittman
9th: RB/WR
10th: RB/WR
15th: Hawkins … I would and will take him higher
16th: Deonte Harris … He is going undrafted right now, by end of August he won’t be a sleeper.