The rust has been swiped off and the model continued to be really strong identifying one offs yesterday. A good sized Monday to start things off today and looking ahead at the full schedule this week it looks very consistent and hopefully the weather starts to cooperate more. I strongly believe we are going to have a solid week and rest of the month.
WEATHER
Padres at Braves – Rain and storms all day and I must have really been losing my mind when I said the Padres were off today, because clearly they are playing vs Atlanta in Atlanta… At any rate, this game has some risk of being called but it’s one of those which should be called before the game starts if they’re going to pass on playing. My guess is they wind up playing the game.
This slate features average pitchers on bad teams in good spots. The two Ace’s going today are Kevin Gausman (vs the Dodgers in LA) and Yu Darvish (off IL vs Atlanta in Atl), neither of whom really project to have that boom upside game on them so we can look to skip on both of them.
Kyle Gibson
Everything points to Gibson being the top play tonight against the Tigers given the summarized data on both sides of the equation but I’ll be shocked if he winds up throwing more than 20 DK points today… He throws a ton of sinkers to RH batters and the Tigers RH bats outside of Schoop will do nothing against that pitch so the floor is high enough on Gibson to trust him, but it likely winds up being a 3-2 type game where the win is in question and he isn’t throwing up a 7 inning 0 ER game which some are gonna tout him to throw.
Kevin Gausman
Sometimes pitching comes down to taking the guy with the upside over the safe route. I originally had Casey Mize listed here as he is fairly cheap and facing a bad Rangers offense, but the Tigers shouldn’t be trust with Mize right now as he plays out the second half of the season and should be limited to 60 pitches or so. Why bother with a guy with a ceiling of 12-14 when there is a pitcher who has been dominant all season and likely will be ignored tonight. That’s Gausman, who was scratched on Friday to go be with his pregnant wife but all is well now and he’ll take the mound to kick off a huge series with the Dodgers. His pitch type mix should generate still a 7-8 strikeout performance and even though weather is good there’s no reason to get cute with a pitcher who has a ceiling of 12-14 tonight when we could go Gausman.
Ryan Yarbrough
Congrats to the Orioles on beating the Royals in Kauffman stadium over the weekend. The Orioles are not going to win a single game in Tampa this week. Rinse and repeat all series long with using Rays pitchers in this series and first up is Yarbrough, who we hope is more Yar-BRO than Yar-bruh tonight…
NY Mets / Cincy
Two average pitchers (being generous on Eickhoff) and really warm conditions in tiny Great American Ballpark. It’s a shame Lindor is out because he has dominated in Cincy but the rest of the Mets are getting the best park shift they will get all season long. Love the Mets, but don’t sleep on Cincy beating up Eickhoff.
Nimmo, McNeil, Conforto, Alonso – Mets
Winker, Votto, Naquin, Suarez – Reds
Pittsburgh Pirates
I make fun of the Pirates a lot but to be honest their offense isn’t that terrible. With Adam Frazier always seemingly getting on base and Reynolds/Hayes behind him we have a really good stack playing out that can be wound up with Jacob Stallings (Road catchers in Chase!) against Caleb Smith who just isn’t very good.
Frazier, Hayes, Reynolds, Stallings
Toronto Blue Jays
One team who is much better on FanDuel than DK due to pricing that is at the top of my list tonight is Toronto. The Jays are in a really good spot vs Pivetta/Boston bullpen, a pitching staff they have tormented for years and for their prices on FanDuel you can fit in Bichette/Vlad/Teoscar much easier on FD than DK. However, if you are using Toronto on DK they fit really well with the value in the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup.
Bichette, Vlad, Teoscar
Contrarian Stack of the night
Chicago Cubs & St. Louis Cardinals game stack
Good teams I am not on offensively
Houston, Boston, Oakland
CATCHER
- Jacob Stallings
- Tucker Barnhardt
FIRST BASE
- Pete Alonso
- Vlad Jr
- Anthony Rizzo
SECOND BASE
- Jeff McNeil … I would be shocked to see him go without a HR in this series.
- Jonathan India
- Adam Frazier
THIRD BASE
- Jose Ramirez … Bubba as I call him (Bubba Gump resemblence) is my favorite 2% owned good player to consider. Cleveland upsets Houston.
- JD Davis
- Kris Bryant
SHORTSTOP
- Paul DeJong – Best value at a deep position today.
- Bo Bichette
- Miguel Rojas – Another sort of value play
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Bryan Reynolds … Not every day you can start off Mt. Rushmore with a Marlin and a Pirate. Here we are though.
- Nicholas Castellanos
- Michael Conforto
- Juan Soto … Continues to show he is going on a tear now that his launch angle is increased.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Austin Meadows … He did in fact, not homer in Atlanta over the weekend. But he also got yesterday off, so it’s probably coming tonight
- Dom Smith
- Josh Rojas
- Brandon Nimmo … Home runs win and while this is a good park shift for Nimmo, he’s also only someone I would focus on if you have 4-5 Mets. One off should be Conforto or Dom Smith.
OUTFIELD – Value
- Kole Calhoun … At $2,000 and likely hitting second, Calhoun is in a really good spot vs Chase De Jong, a known HR target and someone Calhoun out of all the D’Backs is the best to pick on.
- Philip Evans
The Dongers Club
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Jacob Stallings – C – Pirates
- Kole Calhoun – OF – Diamondbacks
- Jose Ramirez – 3B – Indians
- Paul DeJong – SS – Cardinals
- Austin Meadows – OF – Rays
- Vlad Jr – 1B – Blue Jays
- Jeff McNeil – 2B – Mets
- BONUS ……………………….. Nick Castellanos – OF – Reds
BETS
- Cubs/Cardinals OVER
- Mets/Reds OVER
- Rays + Jays ML Parlay
- Indians ML
The Chalkiest Stacks
Astros, Mets
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
Nothing really fits here.
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
Cleveland Indians (Ramirez/Franmil)
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
Yarbrough and Gibson
Gausman and Yarbrough
TOP THREE BUILDS (aka CORE HITTERS)
Mets (McNeil & Alonso) + Pirates (Reynolds & Stallings)
Reds (Castellanos & Winker) + Contrarian Cubs/Cards (Rizzo, Bryant, DeJong)
Jays (Vlad & Bichette) + Diamondbacks (Calhoun & Rojas)