An insane night last night which brought back 2017-2019 level flashbacks on the amount of home runs which were being drilled out of stadiums. Reducing the spin rates on baseballs via the sticky stuff was not going to correlate as strongly into a HR boost as you saw last night. Reducing the spin rates simply should have put the ball in play more and all we saw last night was balls barely hitting the bat leave the park. I love Juan Soto and believe he is the best hitter in Baseball, but his first home run was even crazy by his standards how he barely flipped the bat out there and took it opposite field.
I’ve had far bigger conspiracy or random theories in the past, but do not try to convince me that they didn’t swap out the new balls over the all-star break in some of these stadiums and replace them with the livelier balls from seasons prior.
WEATHER
Boston at Toronto – Some rain lingering around the stadium here could cause a delay. Timing is important and if they start in a delay it might be a spot to completely avoid.
Well if you thought last night’s pitching was less than spectacular then wait for this Tuesday night trainwreck.
Tarik Skubal
The Rangers remain a team of zombies and unlike Casey Mize, Skubal has a little bit longer leash and probably gets more strikeouts because he is someone who lives off missing bats more than being able to pitch to the weakness like Mize did last night. Skubal has some walk issues to be worried about, but could easily get 7 strikeouts over 5 innings today. He’s a must start for me as he has been over 90 pitches in every start so far this year and Detroit indicated that although they would limit him in the second half, they wouldn’t be doing it at the same time as Casey Mize. Last night the Tigers limited Mize after 4 innings and used four relievers. All indications are they’ll let Skubal work his regular amount today.
Aaron Nola
It’s a road game yes for Nola but the Yankees against RHP are much weaker and still have a below average lineup to be rolled out once again tonight. Nola’s dominated the New York teams this season once in Citi Field vs the Mets and against these same Yankees back on June 13th in Philadelphia. He’s really good vs RHB and the only lefties the Yankees should roll out are Odor, Garner and Wade. More like Mo, Larry and Curly if you ask me…
Shane McLanahan
Right back to picking on the Orioles in Tropicana Field. Yarbrough wound up steadying out last night after a very rough first inning and we’ll attack Baltimore with another lefty tonight but more so because McLanahan has what should be a good swing and miss performance in him tonight. The Orioles top of the lineup grades poorly with a 26.3% weighted strikeout rate against McLanahan’s pitch mix with only Austin Hays and Trey Mancini being average or above average plays for Baltimore.
Houston Astros
I faded the Astros last night because they just seemed a little off coming out of the break and they only managed to put up 4 runs off JC Mejia. Tonight they welcome little Triston McKenzie in who has great strike out stuff up in the zone against teams who aren’t disciplined. Houston is disciplined and Houston is going to break open a can of whoop ass on him tonight.
Colorado Rockies
Colorado really grades out well against Marco Gonzales and certainly in Coors Field with warm weather is going to be a popular team tonight. CJ Cron had a really slow start but has been good of late and Trevor Story might have one or two HR left in him before going away to another team soon.
Philadelphia Phillies
The Yankees do not seem to have a plan for Domingo German other than use him here and there and I wouldn’t think he pitches more than a couple innings vs the Phillies. But if they can get on him early they should have a great shot to produce a couple – 2nd HR tonight – type plays and I love the RH hitters on the Phils tonight. Segura, Hoskins, Realmuto, Cutch…
Toronto Blue Jays
There are a ton of “Hey we just got our arses handed to us and lets get it back tonight” spots today but none of them are better than Toronto in Buffalo vs Richards. Weather permitting, the Jays should rebound tonight.
CATCHER
- JT Realmuto
- Jacob Stallings
- Mitch Garver … I think Garver was a one year wonder but nobody is the poster child more for juiced balls than him. He’ll be popular as a one off I would think vs Keuchel.
FIRST BASE
It felt like there were about 13 first base eligible players who homered last night, did it not? It’s much thinner tonight.
- CJ Cron … The top play here, and someone I feel should be in your CORE builds.
- Rhys Hoskins
- Vladdy G.
SECOND BASE
- Jean Segura
- Garrett Hampson / Brendan Rogers … Both can be used at 2B and we’ll need to see who is in and where in the lineup, both are equal plays.
- Jose Altuve
THIRD BASE
- Yoan Moncada
- KeBryan Hayes
- Wander Franco
SHORTSTOP
- Trevor Story
- Nick Ahmed – Top value at SS
- Jonathan Villar – hope he starts today. Would be the primary met I want after they went off last night
- Paul DeJong
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Michael Brantley
- Juan Soto
- Jared Kelenic
- Bryan Reynolds
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Mitch Haniger
- Franmil Reyes
- Adam Duvall
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Yordan Alvarez
OUTFIELD – Value
- Andrew McCutchen
- Akil Baddoo
- Jake Bauers
The Dongers Club
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Juan Soto – OF – Nationals
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- CJ Cron – 1B – Rockies
- Nick Ahmed – SS – Diamondbacks
- Yoan Moncada – 3B – White Sox
- Jarred Kelenic – OF – Mariners
- Bryan Reynolds – OF – Pirates
- BONUS …………… Jean Segura – 2B – Phillies
BETS
Phillies ML
Marlins ML
Blue Jays ML
Indians/Astros OVER 9
HR Parlay
Jose Altuve, Juan Soto, CJ Cron
The Chalkiest Stacks
Rockies, Blue Jays, Reds
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
Astros, Phillies
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
As always a pitcher in Coors is going to be leverage and it’s two guys who do have the ability to go off the rails and get some soft contact — but I don’t trust either tonight and expect the Mariners to actually win this game despite all the Rockies love out there today. But no, Marco Gonzales is not someone I am endorsing on a pitching front.
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
Nola and Skubal
FAVORITE HITTERS
CJ Cron
Jose Altuve
Jarred Kelenic
and of course … Juan Soto