Last night we saw Nelson Cruz get traded right before lock and my quick take on the deal is that it’s very good obviously for the Rays because they have been relatively weak against LHP and this should more than help offset some of those challenges. Plus, given how the Rays like to platoon guys we could see Cruz get the proper rest his wrist still kind of needs right now and so when he is in the lineup he’ll be very fresh most likely.
But I bring that up because we’ve basically got one week left until the MLB trade deadline and I expect a few more notable trades to go down which could impact DFS lineups after the article is posted. In general, if a team trades away a player I would immediately be off that team for that night as I went into the discord last night and said I would fade Twins last night.
We have also been avoiding guys like Joey Gallo and should be avoiding Trevor Story as hard as that is when they are home, even though both may wind up staying they are clearly not doing anything post the ASB and pre trade deadline.
WEATHER
Tonight is an all clear night for weather
A good pitching night last night around the league is followed up with another good looking one on this full Friday slate. Whether you are Zachary, Zac, Zach or Zack we have pitching in store for you today with Zack Wheeler, Zach Thompson, Zach Plesac and Zac Gallen (early slate) all among pitchers going today. This slate also includes a Johnny, a Wily, a Frankie, and a Freddy to go along with Kolby and Kris, but can’t ignore Steven who spells his name like a serial killer and of course, our favorite pitcher of them all. Yusei Kikuchi, I say … excuse me?
Freddy Peralta
The marquee match-up of the day is Giolito vs Peralta and I expect Giolito to be much heavier owned tonight because the White Sox lineup has more weight to its reputation than the Brewers lineup, but I am not only backing my model but taking the leverage of the lower owned Peralta in a pitchers duel in Milwaukee. Now, most of these “pitcher duels” of late have turned into good offensive outbursts but Peralta and Milwaukee pitching at home has been rock solid all season long and Chicago losing any DH advantage (wasn’t much, but it helps) also tips the scale for me onto Freddy P.
Lucas Giolito
Game stack it up on the pitching side tonight. We’re getting two guys who arguably should be over 10k at both slightly reduced price and the only major risk I have on Giolito is that La Russa gets weird and has NL nostalgia with pulling him in a cool double shift too early. Something he shouldn’t do as Giolito has been a bulldog and comes in really pitching well and refreshed.
Zack Wheeler
Not to be “that guy” with the boring obvious pitching recommendations but it’s just how things look today. The Phillies should bounce back with a 6-3 win tonight, with Wheeler going we’re getting 95+ pitches and a guy who should deliver a solid score. That said, the strikeouts continue to be down off the elite clip from the start of the year, so he comes in below Peralta and Giolito by a hair today but really, we’re splitting hairs with all three.
Sleeper of the day
Alex Cobb
RIP Twins. Gone is Nelson Cruz, gone is Alex Kiriloff and Max Kepler can just do all the lead off homers he wants but this team is mailing it in. Josh Donaldson is checking out faster than Davante Adams can and the way Cobb has pitched to LH this year he should be able to handle Kepler, Arraez, Polanco, Larnach.
Guys who I can see pitching well but not translating into DFS success due to various reasons but mostly limited ceilings:
Jake Odorizzi, Chad Kuhl, Tylor Megill, Joe Musgrove (Struggling lately), Zach Thompson
Tough slate to narrow down and one thing I strongly want to remind you is that we’re more likely to find some value bats today than some value pitching. In fact, there’s quite a few on DraftKings who are down around $4,000 (uh, JD Martinez even vs Cole…) where as some other guys ware way too high up there. Pay for the pitching and find the balanced spread on your offense today. Favorite 2 players from each team/game mentioned are listed in italics…
Nationals
Soto/Bell
Really hard to overlook the Nationals going into Camden Yards for their annual beltway series. Jorge Lopez is on the mound and he’s just not good obviously, with a really poor history against LH hitters so expect Soto and Josh Bell to be popular, but if the Nationals go off, it’s gonna HAVE to get value from guys you would almost never trust. And yes, I mean Alcides Escobar, Gerardo Parra and Josh Harrison. Ride the Nats value today.
Reds – Cardinals
DeJong/Suarez
Death. Taxes. Cardinals in Cincinnati raking. I’m not gonna beat the Mahle dead horse anymore, just know that DeJong, Molina and Goldy are really bad spots for him and it’s obviously a great park shift for the red birds. My stack in this game though is Cincinnati, a lineup which has cooled off a little bit gets a welcomed visit from Wade LeBlanc and if Eugenio Suarez can’t get it going now then he should just go home for the season.
SF Giants
Dickerson, Yaz
A good team who is just going to be ignored against the Pirates? That’s the Giants and yes they are coming off a big series with the Dodgers but this type of team should be able to bounce back quickly and excel in a match-up that Dickerson/Yaz have great pitch type splits in and are very cheap.
Rays vs Indians
Lowe/Framil
Guardians? Guard this *****! Tampa didn’t go off for everyone last night and will be 2% owned today against an equally middle of the road arm in Zach Plesac. Love Brandon Lowe today to the moon and the stars and this game should have good offense in it today. Basically give me Lowe and Franmil here as two of the better plays on the entire slate with Tampa’s lineup being more intriguing to stack.
Under the radar offenses
Baltimore – Corbin can be hit (duh!), Orioles have guys who can hit LHP. No reason to not like Hays/Mancini/Mountcastle.
Mets – Facing former Met Steven Matz, you know the rule. Mets win.
CATCHER
- Yadier Molina
- Mike Zunino
- Max Stassi
FIRST BASE
- Trey Mancini
- Josh Bell
- Pete Alonso
SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Jonathan India
- Alcides Escobar
THIRD BASE
Great value position today.
- Eugenio Suarez
- Josh Harrison
- Jemeir Candelario
- Nolan
SHORTSTOP
It’s Dejong or the extreme value in Gleyber. Sure, I can chase with Franco or Xander but when I am on someone I stick to my guns and don’t bother mentioning 18 players at a position when I am hyping up one player only to cover the bases later. If you don’t like the DeJong call, move the hell on and make your own judgement call at this position today which is very spread out and I’ll be spending a Grand on DeJong waiting for him to Slam one out around 8:13 pm tonight.
- Paul DeJong
- Gleyber Torres – $3200 price is so tempting given how good he has swung bat lately.
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Franmil Reyes
- Juan Soto … Explain to me how the fuck Juan Soto against the bleeping Orioles in Camden Yards is $5,600 but Mookie Betts is $6,700 in LA? I get that Mookie has been on fire, but hello, so has Juan Soto!??!
- Austin Meadows
- Alex Dickerson
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Ramon Laureano … Oakland vs Kikuchi is very tempting, a spot where they’ve seen him enough to hopefully be patient and just put the ball in play. Laureano would be a must for Athletics builds.
- Robbie Grossman
- JD Martinez … He has either hit it hard or struck out every time vs Cole.
- Mike Yasztremski
OUTFIELD – Value
- Dylan Carlson
- Aristides Acquino
- Austin Hays
- Harrison Bader
- Justin Upton
The Dongers Club
- Paul DeJong – SS – Cardinals – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Alex Dickerson – OF – Giants
- Josh Bell – 1B – Nationals
- Juan Soto – OF – Nationals
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Justin Upton – OF – Angels
- Jeimer Candelario – 3B – Tigers
- Max Stassi – C – Angels
- BONUS ………………………. Eugenio Suarez – 3B – Reds
BETS
- METS ML
- REDS/CARDINALS OVER
- Astros -1.5
HR Parlay
- Soto / DeJong / Lowe
The Chalkiest Stacks
Nationals, Reds, Tigers
Good Teams Getting Overlooked
Giants
Best Leverage Play against Chalk
Cardinals
Favorite DK Pitching Combinations
Peralta, Giolito
FAVORITE HITTERS
Brandon Lowe
Paul DeJong
Alex Dickerson