Last night I completely whiffed on one big thing — the weather in Chicago. It was an oversight and whenever a game gets PPD that I had not mentioned as a risk in some way it always bugs me. Jack Flaherty having his shoulder fall apart and throwing softballs obviously stunk too, but the weather situation was an oversight which I should have seen before, so that’s on me.
WEATHER
We should be fine tonight, but being a little cautious both Cleveland and Baltimore have delay risks, but I see no PPD risk here.
WALKER BUEHLER
If his name was Jacob deGrom everyone would roster him tonight against San Diego — which is not a great offense at all right now and this would be the easiest write up in the world. But as it stands, there are some who do not realize that Buehler is the NL Cy Young leader in the clubhouse and gone 6+ IP in eight straight starts with only fewer than 7 strikeouts once (vs Houston!) and allowing just 2 HR over that span. He’s faced good teams too, so don’t give me this competition b.s. Walker, even on the road in PETCO, is an auto play right now. He should be 11k.
SHOHEI OHTANI
It has been Ohtani’s arm and not his bat which has been his highlight reel in the second half of the season. His command has been better and with that he has been able to go deeper into games and has been carving up bad competition when he see’s it like his last start vs Detroit where he was extremely efficient. He gets another likable spot today vs Baltimore.
JOSIAH GRAY
Normally I would advise against using rookie pitchers but we’ve gotten enough of a sample size with Gray thus far that I am not too concerned with him having the yips or getting a very quick hook this evening. It is also not a situation where he is seeing a team for a second time so the Marlins lineup will likely have very little data besides what their scouting gives them on Gray tonight and with his better than average stuff that should greatly favor him in this advantage. He’ll likely finish the night with over 6 strikeouts so I think he has to be considered a viable third option today.
Just missed my cut:
Zack Wheeler – Strong consideration for going Wheeler over Ohtani tonight, but in the end I would rather not pick on Tampa Bay.
Would not touch
Robbie Ray and Lucas Giolito
BOSTON
Xander, Devers, Verdugo
Expect another high scoring game in Fenway tonight and the Red Sox look fantastic against Ober on the model as they should. Anytime you allow + .200 isolated power to both righties and lefties and face a team with good power you’re going to be someone that we’ll target. Such is the case tonight and I’ll take the Xander Bogaerts 2 run home run, thank you very much.
DIAMONDBACKS
Smith, Walker, Marte
Lefties in PNC and Lefties vs Bryse Wilson, who starts tonight for the Pirates and that’s a fantastic target for good value tonight. Arizona has been a good team of late and one you can get 4+ players from tonight to lock in as a core stack with Boston/Angels/Mets one offs.
NY METS
Nimmo, Lindor, Alonso, Conforto, Mazeikla
I like the game in Citi Field tonight once again, but this time the Mets offense is worth buying low on. It’s warm with good hitting conditions again so the ball should have extra carry once more and with Walker/Cueto on the mound we have two pitchers that can be picked on enough for mid-range value. Everything starts with Nimmo for the Mets tonight, if he can get on a few times they should have some long innings.
LA ANGELS
Upton, Walsh, Fletcher
Long time minor leaguer Chris Ellis (no relation to Dale Ellis, BTW) will make his first ever start in Camden Yards against Shohei Ohtani. Good luck pal. He’s been hammered in limited time at AAA and while the Angels lineup isnt’ exactly murders row, they would be considered a decent AAA team and in Camden Yards, they should have another good evening today.
CATCHER
- Patrick Mazeika
- Mitch Garver
- Omar Narvaez
FIRST BASE
This is the position to once again be contrarian with tonight. But it’s not Belt we are chasing, we got 2 from him and while I like him again, here’s some other options Im more interested in. nobody will have Jose Abreu but we know he has been doing well all month long and is a terrible match-up even for the 2021 version of Robbie Ray.
- Jose Abreu
- Jared Walsh
- Vlad Guerrero Jr … Will get overlooked vs Giolito for sure. Like the over in this game.
- Pete Alonso
SECOND BASE
- Trea Turner … Most consistent player in DFS since he became a Dodger leading off, and that should remain the case as long as he is there.
- David Fletcher
- Andy Ibanez
THIRD BASE
- Kris Bryant
- Rafael Devers
- KeBryan Hayes
SHORTSTOP
- Xander Bogaerts
- Francisco Lindor
OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE
- Pavin Smith – LiPNC one off for the Diamondbacks who should beat up Bryse Wilson
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Alex Verdugo
- Justin Upton
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Austin Meadows
- Michael Conforto
- JD Martinez
- Max Kepler
- Corey Dickerson
OUTFIELD – Value
- Brandon Nimmo
- Tyler Naquin
- AJ Pollock
The Dongers Club
- Pavin Smith – OF – Diamondbacks – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Boston
- Francisco Lindor – SS – Mets
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- Trea Turner – 2B – Dodgers
- Patrick Mazeika – C – Mets
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- Justin Upton – OF – Angels
- BONUS …………………. Xander Bogaerts – SS – Red Sox
BETS
- Jays/White Sox OVER
- Giants/Mets OVER
- Diamondbacks ML
CHALKIEST STACKS
Red Sox
Angels
GOOD TEAMS GETTING OVERLOOKED
White Sox and Blue Jays
BEST LEVERAGE
Tampa Bay Rays, Chicago White Sox
SPEND UP ON PITCHING?
Yes, Buehler and Ohtani are the primary pitching plays and we have lots of good value hitting out there.