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DAILY-AMBUSH · August 29, 2021

Sunday Dongers Club, August 29th

Today is August 29th (just in case you didn’t know!) and that means next Sunday is the day before Labor day, which means the Sunday after that is NFL Week 1 and there won’t be any contests in the lobby to justify an article.  So this means that today is the final Sunday Dongers Club of 2021…

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Oh, I should probably mention why huh?  As it stands now I will not have an article next Saturday and Sunday as I am planning to be out of town and looking to not write for the two days.  I am efforting plans on having MLB content up for each day but it would not be from me.  So you’ll probably end up winning all the money with the fill in’s on the weekend but this is just the heads up that I am giving as of now.  Obviously subject to change, but I am about 80% sure that I will be out and so this is the final Sunday Dongers Club of the season — let’s make it a great one.

Unfortunately MLB did not offer us much of a Sunday tilt slate as there are only 2 games on the afternoon slate today but 11 games on the Main slates.

 

WEATHER

We should not see any weather issues in Baseball today, which is a heck of a lot more than I can say for the state of Louisiana with a big Hurricane bearing down on them.

 

Tyler Mahle

Mahle has really been hit hard on his day game starts not just this season but historically as well but in a climate controlled Marlins Park against the Marlins we’re going to ride him hoping that there are 8+ strikeouts from Mahle.  Nobody has ever questioned his ability to get swinging strikes and nobody has ever questioned the Marlins lineup to be generous enough to offer at breaking pitches.  Granted, I am curious if they decide to open the roof and how that impacts him, but we’re chasing the biggest upside on the slate and Mahle provides that.

Kwang-Hun Kim

These are not the same Pirates from April-June.  Don’t get me wrong, they’re still bad, but they are striking out so much more now and we have been able to capitalize on lefties vs the Pirates in some recent spots as well.  The addition of Michael Chavis adds another strikeout hitter, Colin Moran back consistently is prone to strikeouts vs LHP and Anthony Alford is another bad hitter here too.  All in all, they’re more of a bad contact team than they used to be and so even the inconsistent Kim is someone we can consider here today.  I would project him to pitch clean and through 6 innings for reasonably good price on DK.  He’s not the type of guy I normally like on FanDuel however even though I know the model/opto is pushing him hard.

Sunday Sleeper

Jesus Luzardo

People are running away from Luzardo faster than pro Jalen Hurts people could run away from him once the Eagles traded for … Gardner Minshew???  I digress, this is a Baseball article, my bad.  Luzardo is a two pitch guy who is going to need a miracle in the off-season to get everyone back on his bandwagon.  Well, I think the narratives will start to trigger some hope for him today.  I mean, we have Jesus on a Sunday and in a South Beach home game?   What more is there to like than Luzardo against a Castellanos/Votto/Stephenson hangover spot.  Trust me, Tyler Stephenson has strong White Boy who gets too drunk and makes a scene on a Saturday night in South Beach vibes associated with him does he not?

The fact of the matter is that nobody can give you a single ounce of statistical evidence to project Luzardo pitching well today and I will not try to bullshit you with any of that.  He has talent, he needs to trust it and I have a gut feeling he will exceed expectations today.

 

Other pitchers whom I considered

Tanner Houck & Aaron Ashby — These two young pitchers got lots of consideration from me but ultimately I still think they’re babied a little bit.  Ashby is the one who I really I could see having a strong outing today.

Anthony DeSclafani — I hate picking on the Braves but a lot of things point to this being a 3-2 game with DeSclafani bouncing back on a good performance outside of a 2-run HR to Eddie Rosario.  I would consider him over Ian Anderson who has been out for a while.

 

Tampa Bay Rays

Lowe, Arozarena, Meadows, Wendle, Kiermaier

Tampa is in a spot to do what we have been waiting for them to do all weekend and that is pop off for a few  big innings.  Watkins offers us another shot at a Brandon Lowe Camden Yards shot and I think Randy Arozarena is getting overlooked today.  He has weaker splits vs RHP but specifically vs Watkins he doesn’t profile too poorly.  With no Nelson Cruz today your Rays stack would round out with cheaper lefties like Joey Wendle or Kevin Kiermaier who seems to find a way to get points every time he plays lately and is the best value play from Tampa.

Boston Red Sox

Schwarber, Verdugo, Devers

Mentioned yesterday that Schwarber is a streaky hitter who looked to be getting back into form and sure enough he led things off with a LiC homer yesterday.  He’ll get another shot today with winds out to right field, warm temps and Eli Morgan starting for the Tribe.  Since pitching offers us some value today, we also can start our lineups off with Rafael Devers even at $6,100.  Boston won’t have a big day without him performing.

Chicago White Sox

Anderson, Robert, Abreu, Moncada

Good windy conditions on the south side.  After last nights Cubs beat down of the White Sox I would put your faith on the White Sox to have the big game today.  This series certainly has not been kind to anyone being bold with under bets.

 

Sleeper team

Washington:   LHB vs Megill.  Soto/Bell/Hernandez/L.V Garcia

 

 

CATCHER

Ugly Sunday catcher slate as usual but Kelly and Grandal have good factors to justify their high price tag.  Plawecki for Boston is the best value here unless you just take the cheapest catcher on the board.

  1. Kevin Plawecki
  2. Carson Kelly
  3. Yasmani Grandai

FIRST BASE

  1. Trey Mancini
  2. Vlad Guerrero Jr … Matt Boyd is returning today, his first start back after a long injured stint and it gives Toronto a Lefty to mash against.  I just don’t know that I can stomach a full Toronto stack right now however Vlad would make sense.
  3. Kyle Schwarber

SECOND BASE

  1. Brandon Lowe
  2. Jorge Polanco … Keeps on producing, keeps on staying cheap.

THIRD BASE

  1. Rafael Devers
  2. Yoan Moncada
  3. Patrick Wisdom

SHORTSTOP

  1. Edmundo Sosa … Probably your chalk value at $2100 given how well he has been performing of late.
  2. Kyle Farmer … If I am wrong about Luzardo, it will be Kyle Farmer who does him in
  3. Willy Adames

OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE

  1. Randy Arozarena
  2. Luis Robert
  3. Teoscar Hernandez
  4. Avisail Garcia

OUTFIELD – Tier 2

  1. Austin Meadows
  2. Cedric Mullins
  3. Juan Soto
  4. Alex Verdugo

OUTFIELD – Value

  1. Kevin Kiermaier
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  3. Akil Baddoo
  4. Yadiel Hernandez

 

The Dongers Club

  1. Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox – Chairman of the Dongers Club
  2. Trey Manicni – 1B – Orioles
  3. Randy Arozarena – OF – Rays
  4. Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
  5. Avisail Garcia – OF – Brewers
  6. Kyle Farmer – SS – Reds
  7. Eddie Rosario – OF – Braves
  8. Kevin Plawecki – C – Red Sox
  9. BONUS ………………………….. Luis Robert – OF – Chicago White Sox

 

BETS

  • Tampa/Baltimore OVER 10.5
  • Cincinnati/Miami UNDER 8
  • Giants/Braves UNDER 8.5
  • Cubs/White Sox OVER 9
  • Nationals 1st 5 Innings ML

 

CHALKIEST STACKS

  • Rays
  • White Sox
  • Reds
  • Astros

GOOD TEAMS GETTING OVERLOOKED

  • Boston
  • Toronto

BEST LEVERAGE SPOTS

  • Jesus Luzardo

 

The best value is in the outfield and SP2 today.

 

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