The Ambush – NFL DFS – Week 3

I decided early in the week to make a couple minor tweaks to the article format.  Overall it should look and feel relatively the same but I felt it was a little bit too much information overload and wanted to shorten things down to be more direct.

For an intro into Week 3, what we are faced with right now is the balance of trying to take information from the first two weeks without taking too much information from the first two weeks.  Prior to the injuries they sustained on Thursday night you could look at Carolina for example and say wow that’s a sneaky defense and a team playing really well.  Or you could look at Carolina and say wow that’s a defense which has benefited from playing a rookie Quarterback, a team without half their coaching staff and lots of starters out and then the worst team in the NFL.  There’s a lot of will the real Slim Shady stand up going on around the league right now.

So it’s a fine line to really avoid reading into analysis that states “they are ranked 28th in DVOA against _____” or “they lead the league in _____” metrics through two weeks.  The idea of what a realistic sample size should be for NFL is always an interesting debate considering in something like Baseball there’s analysis which points to needing 2+ years of data sometimes to make a determination.  But holy hell if a cornerback gives up 7 catches one week he’s going to be attacked like hell the next week in football without any consideration that it could have been a slight data anomaly.  Just a word of caution when using nothing but rankings to determine what’s a good play versus what’s a trap spot.  It ultimately still comes down to game tempo, game flow, matchups and teams exploiting weaknesses with their strengths.

WEATHER AND NOTABLES

INJURIES TO MONITOR

A really long list of injuries coming in this week, most of which seem to be at the WR position.  That said, there is really nothing as of Saturday afternoon that I am concerned about going into Sunday’s action.

This is one example of an adjustment to the article.  The five AMBUSH plays are going to remain, but three of them are going to be my top individual plays for the week, then the next two will be the top game-stack and roster-construction balance.

#1 – ANTONIO GIBSON

Saying Gibson is my favorite play of the week is a little bit of an understatement.  One of the great things I like to look for are the teams coming off the Thursday night game and finding out if they have an opponent who might come in unprepared. 

The Bills defense will statistically look like one of those teams which isn’t a mark to attack but last weeks beat down of the Dolphins can be thrown out due to an early injury and whenever one team blows out another (especially in the division) they tend to come out flat the next week.  Look for Washington to continue to get good production from Gibson when he touches the ball and for them to start to expand his role even more.

Gibson will finish with 5+ receptions and over 100 all purpose yards along with a touchdown making him a core play this week.

#2 – AJ BROWN

The Titans are one team who is continuing to be predictable as to who we target based solely on whether they are home or away.  On the road, they go to Henry and at home they trust Tannehill to get the job done.  Brown is clearly the #1 compared to Julio Jones right now but we’re really splitting hairs when we try to evaluate the talent between the two.  That said, Brown is coming off a game in which he didn’t score and that’s notable for someone who didn’t go back to back games without a touchdown all of last year. 

So against a bad Colts secondary without speed to catch him if he breaks off in the open field I can see a multi-score game and with Carson Wentz likely starting for the Colts we have enough trust in Indianapolis to put up some fast drives to make this a fast tempo game which is going way under the radar.

Brown has a 50+ yard TD reception and over 100 yards

#3 – TYLER HIGBEE 

The best game of the 4PM slate is going to come down to either the Seahawks-Vikings or the Bucs-Rams and in both cases I think the general public is going to be wrong on both.  I have a bold prediction in the other game but as far as the Bucs-Rams is concerned this seems like an exact one path to victory for both teams.  The Rams are going to ignore the running game, which isn’t saying much for them but it’s clear as day they have to attack the Bucs with TE Tyler Higbee and WR Robert Woods. 

Tampa should look to take away the deep vertical game from Stafford which is going to open up their weakness still at covering TE’s on the 5-15 yard depth routes.  So take that and stick it you air yards and high aDOT pimping folks because when Tyler Higbee finishes with the most receptions on the team tomorrow we’ll be very glad to take it.  And yes, you can play two TE this week if Higbee is second to Kelce.

Tyler Higbee leads the Rams in receptions vs Tampa.

#4 – STACKS OF THE WEEK

Top games on this slate to consider stacking and looking heavy into but all of these games being 1PM make them more of a 1PM only type stack build.  So for the early only slate these are your stacks to focus on.

Ravens at Lions

Jackson, Brown, Andrews, Hockenson, Swift

Everyone will think of the ground attacks in this one, but there’s value in the passing game on both sides as well.  Who doesn’t love a TE game stack option, right?  Andrews and Hockenson both score here and Marquise Brown should catch a deep bomb for the Ravens too.  The hidden magic in this game is that the Ravens defense is coming off that long game vs the Chiefs last Sunday night and has some COVID issues on it as well.  Don’t be shocked if the Lions pull off the upset.

Falcons at Giants

Jones, Golladay, Engram + Ridley

The Giants are going to boat race the Falcons, and then they are going to race them in happy sack and then they’ll race them in pine car derby.  The Giants will roll, but Atlanta has one specific weapon which the Giants do not have an answer for and that is Calvin Ridley.  Given the lack of consistent pass rush likely from the Giants as well the Falcons should get a high catch game out of Ridley here making him the perfect run it back option to go with three Giants.   Saquon Barkley is certainly tempting given the fact that he is virtually free in this game but Golladay and Engram are the prime targets.

Colts at Titans

Tannehill, Brown, Pittman

We need Wentz to definitely play for this one but there aren’t many secondaries that I have less confidence in than these two this week.  

#5 – FADES OF THE WEEK

• The passing attack between Seattle and Minnesota….  Read below on the gamescript here.
• Travis Kelce – because TE is VERY deep this week
• Derrick Henry
• Atlanta Running Backs – I’ll give you 283 reasons why

Blah Games

• Arizona vs Jacksonville
• New Orleans vs New England
• Chicago vs Cleveland
• Miami vs Las Vegas
• NY Jets vs Denver

Lamar Jackson

I would not be on the Lamar naked train this week, because he’s going to easily throw for a couple touchdowns but paying for Lamar means we need that rushing touchdown and they won’t need him to run if Detroit is doing nothing so get TJ Hockenson on the other side otherwise I think this one falls on its face.

Antonio Gibson

Ambush play of the week

Dalvin Cook

Cook has been up and down on the injury front all week long but is almost certainly to suit up in what is an early season “do or die” game for the Vikings.  Minnesota will win this game off the backs of their defense and their running game.  If you think Kirk Cousins has another huge game in him (and at home where he generally has sucked) then go right ahead and have fun with that because Minnesota has one path in this game and that is forcing Seattle into 3rd and long on offense and chewing up the clock with Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison.

Austin Ekeler

Ekeler is once again a DraftKings primary play this season instead of forcing him on FanDuel.  The extra value in that full point per reception makes him a tier 1 play on DK against the Chiefs and yeah I can write some yada-yada-yada about game script here but more so the obvious attack for the Chargers in the red zone will be a screen pass to Ekeler for a 16 yard touchdown left to right at the top of the screen baby.

Leonard Fournette

Tampa is going to do one thing and one thing only this week.  Pound the football behind their big offensive line.  There’s absolutely zero chance that Tampa wins this game if they try to have  Brady drop back 30+ times against the Rams pass defense in their own stadium.  All that noise last week about Tampa giving Ronald Jones the heavier workload was just smoke for the impending Lenny Fournette 20 carry, 100  yard and 2 touchdown game this week.  I absolutely LOVE Fournette vs LA.

THE BIG 3 (and a half)

We will use DraftKings pricing to outline the top WR within three different tiers and call them the triplets. Tier 1 is above 7k, Tier 2 is above 5k and tier 3 is below 5k. No matter what, the AMBUSH Triplets will not give you two Tier 1 players and no more than two Tier 2 players. Basically the rule of thumb for balance here is you can’t have combined more than 2 players in Tier 1 & Tier 2 to have the right balance for a SE lineup.

AJ Brown

Ambush play of the week.

Chase Claypool

No Diontae Johnson is a BIG deal for the Steelers and should mean a major boost for the remaining WR, of which Chase Claypool is the likely one to see the heavier set of target share and snaps.  Claypool so far has been the #3 on the team in the number of passing snaps they get and is in line to benefit the most with Johnson being out.

Kenny Golladay and Calvin Ridley

Play these two together.  Golladay has the size to really give the Falcons secondary fits and Daniel Jones one major issue around having time to throw should be negated against the Falcons lack of a consistent blitz/pass rush package.  Giants roll in this game which leads to Golladay topping 100 yards and Ridley catching all the Falcons passes.

NEXT BEST BY $ TIERS

Tier 1 – Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, Stefon Diggs

Looove all three of these guys, but in pt/$ the group I mentioned above is where I am leaning.  Overall Tyreek Hill should be among the highest scoring but paying $8400 is tough.

Tier 2 – Marquise Brown, Michael Pittman

Tier 3 – Jaylen Waddle, Rondale Moore

Tyler Higbee

Ambush play of the week

TJ Hockenson

Expect some decent ownership to go to Hockenson as the Lions are funneling all their passing game through the third year Tight End.  He’s quickly approaching that 1b category each week and should be in line to produce very well against the Ravens who are depleted and ripe for the upset.

DENVER BRONCOS

There’s a long running statistic that the Broncos do not lose at home in September and all signs should point to that continuing vs the Jets.  The Denver secondary can take away any strong passing game options here and should roll up some sacks and turnovers against New York.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

While they might be playing a third straight road game technically, the Saints are getting a good number of defensive players back for this one.  So they are more than rested up and really match-up perfectly for what the Patriots want to do on offense.  The Saints coverage of tight ends is greatly improved along with a run defense that is still among the best in the league, so they should do a good job to limit explosive plays from New England.

Sleeper Pick …

MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Not many teams suffered as much as the Vikings did in 2020 without having fans in home games.  This has historically been a defense which always plays much better at home but fell off drastically in 2020 without any fans or noise in their home stadium.  I believe that with fans being back 100% in Minnesota and this being their first home game since 2019 in that setting that we’ll see an improved defensive performance from the Vikings.  Keep in mind Seattle wants to run the ball still and we know Minnesota will as well, so this game is NOT going to be the back and forth air it out shootout which many are predicting and the Vikings defense are still coached by one of the better defensive minds in the game in Mike Zimmer — who is sound like a coach that knows he needs this win this week to avoid a mid-season exodus.

It’s back by popular demand!  The Q&A section, where I ask questions to myself and answer them for you thinking that you might actually be wondering the same thing.  In all seriousness though if you have a weekly question get it to me before Friday night and I will include it in here.  This is the final thoughts presented in Q&A style — like a press conference.

Q:  Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it … Josh Allen?

Yeah yeah, so Josh Allen seems to always be the answer to this question but we’re talking about a rushing QB against a really good front 4 pass rush and that typically tends to lean in favor of the rushing QB in fantasy having a really good game.  Daniel Jones was able to run one in on the Washington defense a week ago and Buffalo has a big advantage in more WR than the Washington defense can handle, so if he can avoid turning the ball over and Gibson and the Washington offense to play as I expect them too then we have ourselves a scenario where Allen posts 350+ combined and multiple scores.

Q:  How should you attack early and 4pm only slates?

This is a week where like last week a lot of chalk will be on the 4PM games.  I am really in favor of the early games as being the better slate to focus on so your MAIN lineup is already ahead of the field in my mind by going light on the Vikings-Seahawks game for example.  1PM only sets up as your game stack slate while 4PM only is going to be get the optimal lineup build in.

Q:  FAVORITE BETS?

Giants -3 (Survivor Pick)

Washington +7

Dolphins +4

Lions +8

Q:  Best game to fade?

Seahawks vs Vikings

Q:  Game nobody is touching that could go off?

Washington at Buffalo

CONTEST SELECTION REMINDERS

Reminder on a couple things you should be looking for each week are as follows

• Tournaments with less than 1k users in them
• Tournaments with less than 300 users in them
• Tournaments that pay 10x to first not 50x to first
• Higher paylines (% of people who get paid)
• How much does 10th place get?  20th place?

Focus on not first place but below that.  Make sure you are playing a tournament that is one you can win in and will not have a ton of tilt by entering a lineup and having to worry about every single person who scores on the slate.  You’ll find that in the long run any tournament that only pays 10x to first is one you will profit in.

Good luck this week to everyone.

Boom!  Lets roll.