No major weather issues projected today, it could be a little rainy in the Texas-TCU game but its a very low chance of rain.
This is one of the more interesting slates we have had in the past couple of years. To me there is an obvious trap game on the slate that will have some good ownership and then a little too much ownership.
A reminder on CFB DFS Lineup Construction Best Practices
College Football remains a sport you want to focus on a game stack where you can. The Super-Flex position allowing us to pair two Quarterbacks from the same game is often what folks refer to with a game stack but it can actually be done many different ways.
The simplest method that I find to consistently work however is to ensure that my secondary plays in a lineup are also correlated within the same game together. If you are new to College Football DFS and just trying to get your feet settled into a consistent approach then follow this template — which on a slate like today should wind up being the right template.
We will identify three games to our lineup as the core build.
- Game A – Pick 3 players from this game, this will be the premiere game with the QB that we want to lock in on. We will pair that QB with a pass catcher (ideally a WR on the full PPR site of DK) and then run it back on the other side. If you want that run it back to be the other QB then they go into the SFLEX obviously.
- Game B – Pick 2 Flex players, no QB in your second favorite game. Usually for me I find this to be two WR but having a RB stud (often times at home is good here) and then a WR from the other side plays out well.
- Game C – Find your favorite one off RB play and plug them in as RB1. If there is an obvious correlation with this play in the same game then put that player in the FLEX.
You should wind up with a template like this:
| QB | Game A |
| RB 1 | Game C |
| RB 2 | |
| WR 1 | Game A |
| WR 2 | Game B |
| WR 3 | Game B |
| FLEX | Game C |
| S-FLEX | Game A |
The salary for WR2 and WR3 are critical here. You can’t go to a game that has two 7k+ wide receivers and expect this build to work. Often times that’s going to be a 5700 and a 5100 player, but it also could dictate the WR 1 player you took from Game A and if that should be more of a value.
The bottom line here is that we’re focused on three games. We want those three games to have the best tempo and action in them and this lineup should have the most tournament upside. As you are moving along with this, if you find that there is an optimal player who is cheaper and fits better than one of the correlations — then that is where you make the pivot to help with salary.
TIER 1 GAMES
- Ole Miss at Alabama – 79.5 … Hey look, people like the game that has an over under of right around 80. Shocking, right? Or do we actually not love this game??? Find out below.
- Louisville vs Wake Forest – 63
- Texas vs TCU – 65.5
- Tennessee vs Mizzou – 65
A year ago Alabama and Ole Miss met and had a game with well over 100 points in it. That Alabama team had all world and Heisman WR Devonta Smith in it while Ole Miss had not too shabby WR Elijah Moore in it. The offense on Ole Miss is as good as it was a year ago, minus Moore, but they’re going to be on the road at Tuscaloosa this time and by no stretch should we blindly assume that this is a repeat performance. But then it could miss the projected total by three touchdowns and still have 6 total touchdowns in the game. It’s not a bad game to have players from but I would not be rushing to stack it given some other strong spots we have this week.
I expect Alabama to rely on their running game in this one and hit John Metchie for 2 big play touchdowns, so he is worthy of our attention for sure, but overall you would need to have the guts to play Mat Corral with one of his cheaper secondary receivers and I’m happy going elsewhere today.
The value chalk play in this game is Jahlil Billingsley for Alabama who has big play ability for under $4,000. He might be 80% owned to be perfectly honest and is not horrible chalk.
FAVORITE GAME
Texas vs TCU
Texas vs TCULove Max Duggan this week. TCU has dominated Texas in a game they consider a rivalary and Duggan is at home facing an opponent that is giving up 74% completion % and isn’t very great defensively against the ground so far this year either. Texas seems to have a little identity crisis right now and TCU should smack them in the mouth in what could be the most exciting game of the day. Someone check real quick if Gus Johnson is doing this game will ya? TCU’s top WR Quentin Johnston dropped a 0 last week vs SMU but should be fully cleared to go bananas this week.
Texas: Bijan Robinson (RB), Jordan Whittington (WR)
TCU: Max Duggan (QB), Quentin Johnston (WR)
GAME TO NOT OVERLOOK
Tennessee vs Mizzou
Missouri gave up 4.5 YPC on the ground last year and has started off 2021 by allowing 6.2 YPC through their first few games. Enter Hendon Hooker rushing it almost 8 times per game and as a team Tennessee has continued to utilize the ground game heavily. They should be able to draw Mizzou up enough to take a few shots deep in this one as well and put up a 30 spot on the road in Missouri today. The Volunteers defense isn’t exactly dominant either, so this sets up as a game to consider game stacking with good value on Keke Chism at $5,200 for The Tigers.
Tenn – Hooker (QB), Payton (WR), Evans (RB)
Mizzou – Chism (WR)
BEST FIT FOR DFS STACKING
Louisville vs Wake Forest
I always like games where you know the ball should go through the stars and the stars in this game are Malik Cunningham (louisville) and Jaq Roberson (Wake) and neither team should do much to slow either down. For some reason Roberson has dropped to $5,200 on DraftKings.
UL: Cunningham
WF: Hartman, Roberson
Yes, Matt Corral is the #1 QB target for many today, but this is about as deep of a QB slate as we have had all season.
Its easy to pivot off of him in my mind if you are willing to take that risk — which I am personally doing here and recommend doing as well on main lineups in SE spots for incredible leverage. Live and die with Duggan pivot off Corral.
- Max Duggan – $9,000 (TCU)
- Hendon Hooker – $6,800 (TENN)
- Matt Corral – $9,200 (Miss)
Favorite Game Stack Duo
- Malik Cunningham – $9,500 (UL)
- Sam Hartman – $7,500 (WF)
Both Cunningham and Hartman can do some rushing TD damage and the game should be close + high scoring and is your ultimate late late game hammer on the DraftKings main slate. For those who do multiple lineups, this should be your second lineup before you go to the Miss/Bama game. Cunningham is the one to play naked here.
People have caught onto Always Leddie Brown season and even in a match-up against a decent defense he should hit his usual 100+ and a touchdown in Morgantown. But overall the ownership here today is really driven by some low cost RB1’s. Brown is one and Kyren Williams for Notre Dame is the other one who for some shocking reason is down to $5,000 on DraftKings? What? He should touch the ball near 20 times and although Cincy is VERY stout defensively, that’s almost too good considering Kyren’s role in the offense.
- Bijan Robinson (UT) … In pure talent he is easily the best guy on the slate. Texas needs him today.
- Leddie Brown (WVU) … $6,900 makes it very easy for Brown to hit value.
- Kyren Williams (ND) … $5,000 on DraftKings is criminal
- Tiyon Evans (TENN) … Time-share.
- CJ Verdell (Oregon) … 64% of touchdowns vs Stanford have come on the ground, along with 209 yards per game.
Again, we have some nice value with Roberson on DraftKings and big play ability for Metchie and Johnston in games that will be high scoring – but one is higher leverage than the other obviously.
- Jaquarri Roberson (Wake) .. His price makes him the elite #1 play in my book.
- Quentin Johnston (TCU) … Big bounce back spot.
- John Metchie (Bama) … Rare that we have a leverage play in a game with an 80 total, but Billingsley being so cheap will draw some ownership off Metchie, who has proven to be the guy in big games for Alabama before and should be that here again.
- Erik Ezukanma (Texas Tech) … Can pair with Leddie Brown as WVU has given up most of their TD through the air.
Value WR
Whenever there is a chalk game with lots of chalk on the value WR in College DFS you are best off taking one if not two of those players. While I am not pushing hard on this game, these two are hard to ignore as one offs or to even correlate with each other or with one of the higher end $$ WR in the same game (such as Metchie)
- Jhailil Bllingsley (Bama) … Kind of the free square on this slate.Value
- Braylon Sanders (Ole Miss) … Another Cheaper value in the chalky game. Honestly prefer him to be paired with Metchie as your ‘Second Game WR-WR’ stack combination here.
One off Studs
Great slate to be contrarian at QB-WR1 this week
- Jordan Whittington (Texas)
- Chris Olave (Ohio State) .. Has been too quiet of late with Strout out (who is now back) and this is a nice spot for Ohio State to pepper him with 10 targets. Him and London (USC) are going lower owned this week but Olave is the one I would take a gamble on.
CHALK REPORT
The Alabama/Ole Miss game certainly will be your most popular play today. There isn’t a ton of deep value at RB right now so I would expect you just take the straight path there with the mid range to high end guys. The way to be different for those who are into that sort of thing is to pivot your QB1-WR1 stud combination to a lower owned play. Use the dashboard for ownership projections.
DEEPEST POSITION
Quarterback
VALUE POSITION
Wide Receiver, although RB can be considered a nice mid range value given who the players are.
BETS
- Ole Miss/Bama Under 80.5
- TCU -4
- Louisville +7
CORE PLAYERS
Max Duggan – TCU
Bijan Robinson – Texas
Quentin Johnston – TCU
Jaq Roberson – Wake Forest