Thank you for your patience in waiting a few extra hours for this article. Extremely busy Saturday afternoon for me running a Youth Basketball League and some Travel Tryouts and wanted to make sure that I could get everything out with this article in time. Rob Geriak and I are planning to do a live stream shortly after this is posted and likely before you are reading this and so you should go check that out on the website once it’s uploaded after we save it. Not sure what we will end up talking about but I’m sure it will be way more entertaining than anything else you got going on right?
So as always I try to take a step back on Friday night and see if I can clearly view where the traffic is flowing into the NFL DFS weekend and it started to really clear up for me late Friday night (as I am writing this).
As you outline plays this week, as yourself who do you think is going to be chalk next week? The chalk each week is driven by a couple of factors with projections being the biggest one, but the second biggest one is always recency bias. People will be high on a player based upon their performance the week before, or they will also be down on a player or team based on their lack of performance the prior week.
We need to limit how much we take in listening to descriptions such as “Will be playing from behind so they have to throw”. We have to limit how much we take in listening to descriptions such as “last week he ….”. I say those things myself sometimes but they really are not predictive type scenarios and they are not explaining the key element that we need to be looking for as we move into the 2nd Quarter of the NFL season.
We need to be identifying where teams are going and what they WANT to do in each game, so that is my mindset for the plays this week.
WEATHER AND NOTABLES
INJURIES TO MONITOR
Massive slate in terms of injury news, and almost every team has something of note here.
- Carolina: CMC out which means Chubba Hubbard chalk. Dan Arnold traded which means TE snaps have opened up.
- Minnesota: Dalvin Cook is expected back
- Chicago: They have no Quarterback. They have no offensive IQ. They have no talent. Who gives a shit who plays Quarterback. They could roll out Jake Elwood, Tom Bones Malone and Donald Duck Dunn and despite having the horns to turn goat piss into gasoline, they could not execute an NFL offense worth of our attention. Well… Except for David Montgomery and if it’s anyone but Fields we should consider D-Mont.
- Indianapolis: Banged up all over the place and on the O-Line.
- Miami: No Tua obviously
- Kansas City: Something seems off here.
- NY Giants: Slayton and Shephard are out. LB Blake Martinez gone (injury)
- New Orleans: LT Terron Armstead and C Eric McCoy (has been out most of season) are out.
- Tennesee: Brown and Julio are OUT. Here’s your donkey chalk team this week.
- NY Jets: Who cares
- Washington: That little NFC South pest Curtis Samuel is back, just in time to face the NFC South. How nice of him. Antonio Gibson should play.
- Atlanta: Uh. No, they’re not hurt. They just arent very good.
- San Francisco: Elijah Mitchell Questionable. George Kittle questionable too. I expect Kittle to play.
RB POWER
For three weeks I have been screaming it is the year of the receiver and once again we should be seeing some Wide Receivers shine this week. But we also have some specific top end Running Backs who could not be getting a better gamescript strategy coming their way this week. Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Saquan Barkley, Alvin Kamara, David Montgomery and yes — Najee Harris are all what we would consider ‘premier’ or close to it Running Backs which have extremely favorable scenarios this week. You probably all know about Henry by now and so I am not going to harp on him too much in this section in a road game with ZERO other top end weapons around him. It’s Chubb, Barkley and Kamara who are catching my eye the most this week with the Cleveland Browns RB1 Nick Chubb being in a scenario where I see him and Dalvin Cook battling back and forth in Minnesota.
The Vikings proved a week ago what I thought which was their bad defense would be not quite as bad at home with a crowd behind it and specifically their pass defense improved after the opening drive when they acted like they didn’t know who DK Metcalf was. But they’re giving up over 4.5 per carry on the ground this season and Cleveland’s offensive line should impose their will in a game where the Browns should look to utilize Kareem Hunt as a weapon in the passing game allowing Chubb to get multiple scores on the ground.
It’s setting up as a weird 2021 where I continue to ride road running backs, but Nick Chubb is leading the way for the road power backs.
Ambush Play #1: Nick Chubb is the forgotten road running back to lock in on in week 4, but others such as Henry, Barkley and Harris are good road plays too.
ORDER IN THE COURT … LAND
I am not going to sit here and tell you that Courtland Sutton is something bold like the #1 scoring WR this weekend, but when we consider his price and how I foresee lineup construction playing out you can make a case that he’s among the most important plays on the weekend. His ownership is projecting to be higher on FanDuel than I had anticipated but is still sub 20% there against a Ravens secondary which is depleted and lucked out by facing the Lions last week to somehow manage to get out with a win.
Now that Jerry Jeudy is out for Denver and in a game where their RB probably have a harder time moving the ball down the field it will be Sutton who Teddy has to try and work with. I know Teddy likes taller players and so Tim Patrick should get his share too but Sutton’s talent now recovering from his own ACL injury is coming back to the dominant form that had many projecting him as the next star WR.
Sutton saw 12 targets two weeks ago and only 5 last week in a game where Denver just was able to run to chew up the clock against the Jets horrible offense. They won’t have that luxury in a game where I most definitely see big plays on both sides and Sutton hauling in 8 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown having a really solid game like he did back in week 2.
Ambush Play #2: Courtland Sutton hauls in 10 catches for over 100 yards.
Standing on a corner Jameis Winston down in Nola …
And you thought we would go the entire season without a Jameis Winston pick, huh? So I have been following the Saints game plans the first month of the season and they have been very clear each week as Sean Payton is utilizing his strengths against the other teams weaknesses to ensure simply that they can win games. It has been a mix of strong defense and ball control offense with looking for shots when possible but a strong emphasis on just dont fuck up because our Defense can win games on the road. That’s been the mantra for New Orleans the last three seasons and it will continue this year.
But now they are back home in the Superdome with fans for the first time since the 2019 season and that is a HUGE deal on multiple fronts. The biggest of which is the play calling which will allow Jameis to take more shots down field as Payton calls a more aggressive offensive strategy in the Dome knowing he has the crowd + defense to bail him out. Given that the Giants have zero pass rush only further helps to add a scenario where Winston should be able to air it out more in this game. You can argue that he has no targets, but I would not overthink that because it’s all about creating matchup scenarios which they EXCEL at in home games. Callaway and Harris have speed to give a slow Giants secondary fits, Kamara has an elite matchup out of the backfield against a depleted LB group and this is the best spot to get Winston off the training wheels and airing it out.
My expectation is a 300+ passing game with 3+ touchdowns and yes, he will rush one in too.
Ambush Play #3: Value Quarterbacks pay off this week and Winston leads the way with a 300 and 3 game. He will be next weeks chalk that we identified this week (oh and then we do not play him under any scenario next week).
DONT FORGET ABOUT GEORGE KITTLE
Kittle has appeared on the injury report this week as the 49ers continue to battle injuries across the board, but he looks like a full go so I am riding along with someone that I cannot ignore this week. San Francisco should be able to move the ball against a bad rushing defense for the Seahawks this week which is going to make guessing on the Shanahan ground attack the spot that most will pull their hair out this week.
But while they can be upset when Trey Lance comes in to vulture a touchdown or two we can still be smiling knowing it was Kittle who caught a short play action pass and rumbled his way down the field to put them in that position. The 49ers have a clear matchup advantage with Kittle as he should see 7+ targets and push close to 100 yards.
Out of all the TE this week who are looking decent, it’s Kittle who I have the most interest in because San Francisco will win this game and I don’t want to bother with the variance at who gets the job done on the ground — he is our leverage play of the week. Kittle will be the #1 tight end this week on my rankings, pending his injury final status.
Ambush Play #4: With an injury designation this week George Kittle is being projected at sub 5% ownership. In a spot where the 49ers can do whatever they want, its hard to not see him contributing in a big way assuming he does play.
#5 – STACKS AND FADES OF THE WEEK
This is NOT a slate that has a ton of heavy stack it up games up top, so if you are looking to stack a game I would not have an issue with it but it should be one of the more contrarian lower total games. I would focus on a balanced lineup this week and not stacking.
Fades and Bold calls
- Mike Davis scores twice for the Falcons as the only 2 touchdowns they produce.
- Kenneth Gainwell and not Miles Sanders leads the Eagles RB in touches.
- Buffalo does not need to be on your DFS radar
- Carolina and Dallas is going under
- Fade the Colts and Dolphins – neither team has a clue right now
- Fade the Titans value
- Fade the Jets
- LOL Bears People.
It’s a value week at Quarterback according to the model as Taylor Heineike, Matt Ryan and Sam Darnold are all ranking highly not only for our model but also around the DFS industry. Do you really feel great about rostering any of them??? I didn’t think so…. (Says the guy telling you to roster Jameis Winston).
Jalen Hurts
There are many times in DFS when Quarterbacks are more recommendations simply off DFS and not style of play. Hurts fits that mold for two major reasons. First off, the Chiefs are vulnerable still to deep speed and that’s pretty much all Philly has on the outside – so a big play TD pass is not out of the question at all. Second, between the 20’s the Chiefs are gashed on the ground, so Hurts being back home off a tough performance has to figure to work into the game plan with his legs and can pair a 250 yard passing day with a 50 yard rushing day and multiple touchdown upside. His floor is pretty safe here and no, it’s not because he is going to “be playing from behind” …
Jameis Winston
Ambush Play
Taylor Heineike
I believe that Washington’s front 4 will play better because they have a dominant advantage against the Falcons offensive line in the passing game. Atlanta’s only path here is to get a big game from Mike Davis so Matt Ryan is ruled out. Heineike on the other hand should be able to extend plays with his scrambling and that should buy time for a now deeper WR group to really give Atlanta fits. The Falcons might be really concerned with Terry McLaurin and former Panther Curtis Samuel who returns this week but do not sleep on rookie Dayami Brown who I don’t think Atlanta has any clue is running wild behind their secondary as I type this catching a 38 yard touchdown by the lower right pylon on your TV. Heineke can get us 3 touchdowns with some rushing upside for fairly cheap. He won’t kill you on a week where I think the value chalk is bad at RB and WR.
Nick Chubb
Ambush play of the week
Derrick Henry
Henry on the road has been a thing for a while now so before the injuries we had him on our radar this week. It’s not a scenario where he’s going to finish with 3 or 4 touchdowns but you cannot find a safer play all season than Henry here this week.
Saquan Barkley
Giants have NOTHING else to lean on. He should catch no fewer than 7 passes and finally should be called upon to carry this offense now that he’s getting into game shape again. I would focus on a Barkley play in a combo lineup with Winston+Callaway+Kamara mostly, but he should hit value easily since his price is still reduced.
Najee Harris
There is only one path for the Steelers to salvage their season and it’s on the ground against Green Bay. There is absolutey zero chance that Big Ben comes out and airs it out in an old style shoot out with Rodgers, so look for Pittsburgh to have to rely upon Najee Harris to do the damage.
Mike Davis
You are talking to the never Mike Davis fan club chairman right here, but I go back to the “what will the teams do” advice I gave at the top of our article and the Falcons will have to look at their OL vs Washington’s DL and realize they cannot win that physical matchup this week unless they run right at the Washington front four. Look for Davis to have his highest volume game of the season this week as the Falcons primary DFS weapon.
THE BIG 3
We will use DraftKings pricing to outline the top WR within three different tiers and call them the triplets. Tier 1 is above 7k, Tier 2 is above 5k and tier 3 is below 5k. No matter what, the AMBUSH Triplets will not give you two Tier 1 players and no more than two Tier 2 players. Basically the rule of thumb for balance here is you can’t have combined more than 2 players in Tier 1 & Tier 2 to have the right balance for a SE lineup.
Courtland Sutton
Ambush play of the week.
Amari Cooper
My second favorite WR this week on an island is Amari Cooper. The Panthers lost their most physical corner which prompted them to try and salvage a hot start by trading for CJ Henderson. That said we should see a little more Zone from the Panthers which opens up Cooper to have a big game against Carolina. The Panthers utilize a lot of blitzing in order to get to the Quarterback without much depth on the DL and back in Week 1 Prescott was outstanding against the blitz happy Tampa defense. Look for Dak to have another solid game connecting with Cooper when Carolina does decide to blitz.
Terry McLaurin
George Kittle
Ambush play of the week
TJ Hockenson
After dominating in weeks 1 and 2 Hockenson was (not shockingly) taken out by Baltimore a team who has a really smart coaching staff. Hockenson now draws the Bears who likely will not even consider covering him. Look for Goff to connect with Hockenson again at a high target rate in week 4.
Dawson Knox
For just $3,600 Knox gets the benefit of taking on a defense which for years has been weak against Tight Ends. Many will cry about game flow and all that other garbage but we’re talking about a pay down scenario at TE in which you don’t take one of the sure things in Kittle or Hock and so this is my favorite pay down spot.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
They are scoring a defensive or special teams touchdown again. Mark it down and mark down Paulsen Adebo as registering his first defensive touchdown.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Very similar to Washington here. The pressure of generating QB hits and sacks along with a few turnovers is the reason to take a shot on Cleveland instead of someone like Buffalo who is just perceived to “win”. Cleveland is the perfect team to have Kirk Cousins put up a classic Kirk Cousins 1PM home dud game.
WASHINGTON
I love Washington’s front 4 against the Falcons to register multiple sacks, a strip sack and if they can score a couple defensive touchdowns maybe they can just break the slate with an impressive 28.3 score.
It’s back by popular demand! The Q&A section, where I ask questions to myself and answer them for you thinking that you might actually be wondering the same thing. In all seriousness though if you have a weekly question get it to me before Friday night and I will include it in here. This is the final thoughts presented in Q&A style — like a press conference.
Q: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it … Aaron Rodgers?
Every single touchdown pass the Steelers have allowed this year has been via the pass. I know that is a random trend that will not continue but their defense has been a little shaky at times so far in 2021. Rodgers has gone on full assault mode after the beat down in week one against New Orleans shredding the Lions and 49ers the last two games early only to kind of pull off the gas and let some other guys do the work. He is very much due for a 5 TD game, and calling for that here this week is probably a bit much but it’s something that when you are putting together a 4PM lineup you should remember and go here instead of chasing the NFC West guys.
Rodgers to Adams for 2 smells like a lock here.
Q: How should you attack early and 4pm only slates?
Just answered the 4PM only question with Rodgers-Adams & look at Najee Harris in the same game from Pittsburgh. I really like Rodgers-Adams-Sutton-Harris as your CORE 4PM lineup.
1PM Only I am going down to New Orleans…. Best spot to use a game stack of that game.
Q: FAVORITE BETS?
Browns -2
Giants / Saints OVER 42
Washington -1.5
Q: Best game to fade?
Panthers and Cowboys
Q: Game nobody is touching that could go off?
Giants and Saints
Ravens and Broncos
CONTEST SELECTION REMINDERS
Reminder on a couple things you should be looking for each week are as follows
- Tournaments with less than 1k users in them
- Tournaments with less than 300 users in them
- Tournaments that pay 10x to first not 50x to first
- Higher paylines (% of people who get paid)
- How much does 10th place get? 20th place?
Focus on not first place but below that. Make sure you are playing a tournament that is one you can win in and will not have a ton of tilt by entering a lineup and having to worry about every single person who scores on the slate. You’ll find that in the long run any tournament that only pays 10x to first is one you will profit in.
Good luck this week to everyone.
Boom! Lets roll.