We have some late news and I had some late clarity on Saturday night that I wanted to address in its own Appendix style entry for the WEEK 10 AMBUSH
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Ben Roethlisberger is OUT due to COVID
Forget all the COVID nonsense here for a minute as the real question is how does this impact Diontae Johnson? We had no desire for Najee Harris and I honestly think he gets a downgrade, so that’s no big deal.
Diontae Johnson on the other hand remains in the mix my WR pool as he should still see good amount of targets, but we gotta like him slightly less. He’s basically just a guy.
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Where is the ownership going?
Since we have value at RB week — and I don’t honestly know why its all on Johnson alone — we have people who are them auto defaulting into Davante Adams and then taking the cheese and adding Mark Ingram in too and just paying up everywhere else.
I don’t love it.
We are still on CMC, we are still on Taylor and we should most certainly be on Dalvin Cook as well. Do not be afraid to roster 3 high end running backs this week and in the case of Dalvin Cook I was worried about the whole off the field stuff earlier in this week but it safely went away like a fart in the wind.
Jordan fricken Howard ran all over the Chargers defense a week ago, so the Vikings most certainly are going to get good production from Dal Cook here today and he correlates great with Mike Williams day. Both are squarely on my radar and I just didn’t give them enough though in the initial Ambush version.
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Each week I set out to give out picks that will help you win but I reminded myself this week that I wanted to highlight what is the overall point of producing content the way that I do. And that is to not give out picks which are going to crash your lineups.
At the end of the day YOU are going to decide if you are a winner in DFS. You have to put in the time to find the right path to playing contests and dollar amounts which will not only give you success but quality entertainment value for your time. Someone could find excitement in turning $18 into $45. Another person might be annoyed if they spend $5,000 and only bring back $8,000. Or maybe you are the type that wants to win $1,000 with only spending $10 each week. It really doesn’t matter which you are, but no single person is going to give you advice that can win all three scenarios, so it’s impossible for every single person to read an article and have 100% satisfaction with it.
But what is possible is that I can give out ONLY good picks. So I mention this as a reminder when you only see a few players listed compared to others doing 10 stacks or 10 players per position, that I am not here to cater the exact build for every type of player. I am here to give picks that will not hurt you no matter the style that you play.
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Injury News
I am not monitoring anything major this Saturday night, we have all the advance information that we really need.
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Weather Information
We have Lambeau weather for the SEA-GB game with temps below 40 degrees and 10-15 mph winds. Ohter than that we’re looking fairly clear this weekend everywhere.
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Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
Arizona is in a classic trap/let down spot and I will touch on this later in the article as a spot I am picking on big time this week. If you dont think “spots” matter in the NFL then you haven’t been following the last couple of weeks. We are in that trap/look ahead time of year in the schedule.
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Dak Prescott (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.1k)
A strong bounce back spot for the Cowboys who will want to win this for their DC Dan Quinn against his former Falcons team. The Cowboys passing game has three strong advantages in Cooper, Lamb and Schultz so Prescott will have a very efficient day moving the ball on them and is in the best spot of anyone we are considering this weekend. He’s the clear #1, next question.
Jalen Hurts (DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k)
With a low completion rate like Hurts has (61%) and a matchup against one of the better pass defenses (56% allowed) in Denver you might be wondering why this Quarterback is on the radar? Well, it aint the passing game my good friend that’s for sure. I am tempted to move Hurts even up to #1 because I see him having a strong rushing game in Denver as that is the Eagles only path to putting up a big score. The backfield trio of Howard, Scott and Gainwell might win your case against the Homeowners Association for singling you out for inappropriate use of the yard decorations but they will not continue to consistently dominate the ground game for Philly.
This recent trend of not letting Hurts run as much is just not true. Philly got down early vs the Raiders in an ugly road game, then they simply didn’t need him to run the ball versus the Detroit Lions and then we see Howard and Gainwell score vs the Chargers and now everyone’s just ignoring Hurts. He’s still running the ball ~10 times per game for ~6 yards per rush and the path to beating Denver is on the ground so those numbers should continue here with a good chance of 2 rushing TD instead of the law-firm tilt taking away his goal line carries.
Trevor Lawrence (DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.6k)
Prior to the game vs Buffalo Lawrence was pushing into the 20 points each week territory and he actually managed to not play horribly against a stout Buffalo defense despite rolling his ankle. Teams have been able to pass on the Colts, especially more than running it which doesn’t figure to be a strength for Jacksonville this week. I like T-Law as a low end value play.
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Christian McCaffery
I’m here to put the flag in the ground on what the Panthers will do this week. Bold call of the season as the Panthers are going to unleash the Wildcat offense on Arizona. The Cardinals are allowing 5.2 ypc to opponents and the Panthers have zero reason to drop back and pass against a decent pass rush from Arizona. With their best players being CMC, Chuba Hubbard and DJ Moore the Panthers along with fill-in QB PJ Walker are in a prime position to do something unique….
The Wildcat!
What better transition for a late second half run from a team who is DESPERATE AS FUCK to get into the playoffs under Matt Rhule than to unleash the gimmick known as the wild cat offense. You can allow CMC to get his big play potential as youre blocking with an extra player now and you can still utilize Hubard and Moore in this system as well. Do it Rhule! Do it! Hell, even if they don’t do it though I love the idea of paying up for CMC in a great matchup when nobody is considering it. Load up on CMC this week, and do not ask any additional questions.
Aaron Jones
How are the Seahawks going to suddenly become good at stopping the run? We dont know for sure who is going to play QB for the Packers but we do know that they have a distinct OL advantage on the ground and the upside of Jordan Love playing some more has to be fantastic news for Aaron Jones — while Rodgers coming back would be good news as well.
Austin Ekeler
If I didn’t have so many other RB which I liked this week up top then Ekeler’s chalk would be easier to stomach here. The Chargers have a ton of guys that grade out well and so I think we end up seeing things just get spread around everywhere but the Vikings are coming off the OT game in Baltimore and now flying out west with a lot of distractions this week. Chargers should roll here and Ekeler gets in the box once for sure, but to me he’s below Aaron Jones who I expect to score twice.
Jonathan Taylor
Somehow the whole world has forgotten that Jonathan Taylor is just reeling off 100 yard touchdown games every single week since middle of last year. With lots of value RB out there this week everyone is running away from these consistent studs but I will take the 20 points here and find the value where it is which is WR and TE this week.
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All the backup running backs …
The story of this week in NFL DFS revolves around backup running backs who are cheap and getting the start.
- D’Ernest Johnson will be the main RB for the Browns vs the Patriots
- Mark Ingram will be the main RB for the Saints vs the Titans
- Brandon Bolden supposedly will be the RB for the Patriots against the Browns
What is hilarious here is that Johnson is going to be insanely owned and some people are saying “oh just play him in cash because he is chalk”. Why? The guy is facing a very good defense which at most might give up one touchdown and isn’t a funnel to pass catching backs or anything like that. I get that the Browns have a solid offensive line, but this game screams under and boring.
I don’t care if he is cheap either because guess who else is cheap? Ingram, Bolden, Adrian Peterson, and all the Eagles backs. So throw that argument out the window.
Is it because he went off on a Thursday night game against the Broncos? Oh really. So you aren’t playing Hurts or Jordan Howard against the Broncos then because ….. why?
Is it because he has a ‘ in his name? Because that should never be a reason to roster a running back.
Honestly. What is the reason you are playing him because there is no reason you can give me as to why he’s a “lock button” play this week — even in cash games.
Dont play him.
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Diontae Johnson (DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.4k)
I am going to be picking the Lions to get their first win of the season over the Steelers in dramatic fashion, but I will not expect the Steelers to not throw the ball along the way to losing. When Ben comes out at half time and is angry that they are down 13-7 he will sit there and pepper Johnson over and over again until they do something weird and give the game away. Johnson winds up with good chalk this week as he hauls in double digit passes vs a bad Lions secondary.
Amari Cooper (DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.3k)
Cooper and the man below, Mike Evans, are two trendy pay up WR options this week. I prefer Cooper as Dallas should be angry after last week and beat up on Atlanta. Physical WR do well vs the Falcons and thus I will lean Cooper over Lamb.
Mike Evans (DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.4k)
Funnel situation should lean towards Evans way with other passing options being down for Tampa Bay. Both teams are coming off a BYE and so Washington probably has one of their better defensive performances this week but not without giving up a short yardage touchdown to Mike Evans who always seems to play well on the road on grass.
Marvin Jones (DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.9k)
Great spot for the Jags passing game and with Lawrence being cleared and okay to go, we have to give consideration to both Marvin Jones and Laviska Shenault ($4600 on DraftKings). I referenced in the Lawrence write up about the passing game working vs the Colts — so much so that 94% of the touchdowns they’ve allowed have come through the air.
Jerry Jeudy (DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.2k)
Philly cannot stop teams from completing passes underneath, which should be another high target game for Jerry Jeudy as Bridgewater will want to avoid taking sacks trying to throw deep against a good deep ball secondary. Underneath to Jeudy all game long.
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Contrarian Stars
Stefon Diggs (DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.9k)
When you lose a game like they did last week after another dud the week before it’s hard not to go right to your main target against a bad opponent. Diggs has massive 100 yard and 2 TD vibes coming from him this week and should squarely be on our radar as a high end WR this weekend.
Tyler Lockett (DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.1k)
Nobody seemed to miss Russell Wilson more than Lockett who had zero connection going with Geno Smith while RW was out due to injury and now that RW is back Lockett comes into a game where the opposing defense is one that he should have a good volume game against. Without Chris Carson here once again we’re going to see Wilson have to throw with his repaired finger and Lockett should be his primary target this game not Metcalf.
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Value WR
We have a lot of good spots here and they are all much better than the value chalk at Running Back. Not to mention the STUDS at running back are much better than the STUDS at Wide Receiver this week, so your proper builds are pay up at RB and pay down at WR2/Wr3/Flex options.
Deonte Harris (DK: $4k)
The Saints are without … Michael Thomas (IR) and Alvin Kamara and yet you guys want to consider Mark Ingram against a good rush defense? This is short passing game and over the top passing game. Look for Harris to set some wild record as the first player ever to score on a punt return, an end around, and catch two touchdowns from two different pass throwers. Okay, so I might be drinking heavily, but one of those four things is a lock to happen along with continuing to lead this team in receptions and probably yards against a slower secondary. Harris has seen 15 targets combined over the last two games with T-Sizzle under center and he is arguably the primary benefactor from Kamara’s vacated touches this week in the passing game as Ty Montgomery is also questionable in this game.
Donovan Peoples-Jones (DK: $4.8k)
Last week was not a random blip ont he radar. What you saw on your TV sets does not need to be adjusted. This is DPJ season and this is DPJ going vertical once a game every single game.
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Dalton Schultz
Atlanta is so weak against Tight Ends that they let Adam fricken Trautman see a ton of targets – and hell he even caught a few too – last week. Not sure how Schultz doesn’t get back to his get it done very week role in the Cowboys offense. Whenever I can find a tight end that is going to get us around 10-15 fantasy points and is in that 4500-6k range between the two sites I just take it. That’s Schultz.
Noah Fant
Short passing game is killing the Eagles and between all the WR options and Noah Fant we might find ourselves considering Teddy B again this weekend. But no, we’re just gonna take the receptions from either Jeudy or Fant here and lock that in as our path to the Broncos passing game. Fant’s targets have dropped off lately due to injury concerns but he looks fully clear to go this week and should see a good amount of volume. It seems that TE score every single week vs Philly lately too — especially those from the AFC West.
T.J. Hockenson
Lions cant win without scoring. Well, they technically can win without the offense scoring but we’re gonna get on that boat later in this article. Hockenson is the best TE overall on this slate, he should see what the Bears were doing with their TE on Monday night and look to replicate it down the middle of the field. Goff is gonna throw a TD, and its either going to TJ Hock or Amon Ra St Brown — I’ll take Hockenson instead of recommending Brown and you’re probably like well duh.
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Buffalo Bills
The $4,000 cost on DK is too cheap considering it is the Jets and that’s just about an automatic 6 points right there. I always preach to start with defenses when building lineups because you are less likely to hate paying up for a defense in a good spot when you play them first and that’s the deal with Buffalo this week should you feel comfortable not being a donkey and thinking Mike White is going to be a good Quarterback option. Please, don’t be a donkey.
New Orleans Saints
I am once again here to tout the Saints defense in the road. You are welcome to to through their history on the road the last three seasons and find examples where this has not worked out. They have changed up their sleep habits on how they travel and quite honestly the way they’re playing at home I wish they would just play on the road every week now. Tennessee isn’t a great target to pick on with defenses, but DK has made New Orleans affordable at $3,100.
Carolina Panthers
If you made it this far then lets get a little weird shall we. I love the Panthers more if Kyler Murray plays, because to me he is going to be very rusty and more likely to do something stupid than Colt McCoy would.
Detroit Lions
The Bears got to Ben a few times on Monday night and I can see Detroit getting there as well. The Steelers offense is not going to come out and suddenly drop 35 points so Detroit at near min price is a great way to find some value this week as well.
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Ambush Play #1 … Ambush Portfolio Management
Listen up! This is how you should be allocating salary in Week 10 for NFL DFS purposes. I am here to give you the five step process on building out the correct path on a winning lineup and it begins first with locking in the tier of defense that you want to use. Buffalo is in a fantastic spot but if you aren’t comfortable with taking just a safe score and want to have a little risk then you probably want to just punt on one of my longshot defenses.
After that is where we get into the good part of the portfolio management and it begins with understanding the PAY UP spot this week is Running Back. That is where the high end slate breaking talent lies and not at Wide Receiver, not at Tight End and well, Quarterback really doesn’t matter this week in terms of pricing.
The CMC, Taylor, Aaron Jones (Kinda cheap TBH) and last weeks play of the week Dalvin Cook are all arguably in much better spots than the high end WR are. So before you go and plug in what the media is telling you to do this week at Running Back, consider who is likely to score 20 points or more and then lock in on your stud RB this week instead of the cheap value RB who are going to be getting 2 to 3 yards and a cloud of dust.
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Ambush Play #2 … How to find value in DFS
Value to me is not about minutes and opportunity (or touches). That is a path for success in basketball and somewhat hockey where they go through the motions and players get rewarded points for negative events like someone missing a shot and the ball bouncing into their hands — or someone making a shot and your player gets rewarded because they happened to be smart enough to not shoot it and give it to that better player.
That’s not the case in football. Value comes based upon the opponent and the touchdown opportunity. Yes, a running back who is going to get all the goal line work most definitely is a slight boost but that should really be the last reason to use someone. It should be about the game flow, upside and weakness of opponent when considering players.
Would you want to come into a week using running backs vs the Patriots? Hell, would you want to use ANYONE in a Patriots game? No.
Would you want to come into a week using running backs vs the Titans? Not really, although Ingram likely does have 3 to 4 screen catches in him, but even then its not a spot we invest in.
Would you want to come into a week using running backs FOR the Patriots? Hell no.
But what if I offered you for roughly the same price some guys who are going to catch 4 to 5 passes against bad pass defenses? We would jump on that no doubt. Be smart with your value hunting, especially this week.
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Ambush Play #3 … Wildcats
One thing that drives me nuts is when analysts come on and start to use the phrase “I think” and “Could” or “possibly”. I do it too much myself and it’s just a way of saying, hey I want to throw this out there because we are talking Sports but I really don’t have anything strong to back it up data wise and I don’t have the confidence to say it and take any backlash if it winds up wrong.
Most trolls dont attack analysts for saying “I think he could”, but they attack when they say “I know he will”. Guess what though, it’s the same thing. If you put the thought out in the universe then you stick with it and I am going to put this thought out there.
The Carolina Panthers are going to employ the Wildcat offense this week and it’s going to be all the rage.
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Ambush Play #4 … Three Wide Out Locks
- Diontae Johnson finishes as a top 3 Wide Receiver with double digit receptions
- Deonte Harris finishes with more fantasy points than D’Ernest Johnson
- Stefon Diggs finishes over 130 yards receiving and a touchdown
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Ambush Play #5 … FADES OF THE WEEK
- Tom Brady
- D’Ernest Johnson
- Michael Pittman
- Kyle Pitts
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Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it … Taysom Hill?
Taysom came out and had a very scary quote about how he does not remember about 45 minutes after he took a concussion back in Week 5 against Washington. It is now week 10 and this is still a talking point which is a good reason why I think you saw New Orleans go with Trevor Siemien and not utilize Taysom much a week ago vs the Falcons. But he is 100% clear and made it through last weeks game without concern. Now they’re down AK41 and against a defense which has been able to get after the Quarterback more than I expected this year. The Saints expect to utilize Taysom a lot more and if this game turns sideways he can easily take over full time at Quarterback while putting up some good fantasy numbers.
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Didnt recommend but don’t hate category
More Chargers (Herbert/Williams)
Tampa Bay Defense
Josh Allen (with Diggs correlation only)
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Trash Games
Browns vs Patriots
Saints vs Titans
Bucs vs Washington
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Favorite Upsets
Detroit Lions win with a defensive touchdown and two Jared Goff touchdown passes while giving up a ton of yards but holding Pittsburgh to field goals …
Carolina Panthers win by using the wildcat offense and turning over the Cardinals …
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