Another edition of The Ambush and the theme clearly this week is the Quarterback position. There are a ton of high end QB who are in good spots, a few value Quarterbacks who look okay and then overall some favorable spots in the mid range as well. That said, the ownership seems to be higher at QB than normal and a lot of that is on the Game of the week which has a total 5-6 points higher than any other game in the Cowboys/Chiefs game.
Normally when we have that scenario, we fade that game and go heavier on other games and this week I will not be going Dak or Mahomes personally, but it’s not a situation of thinking that they are horrible plays. I just prefer higher upside with someone else if spending up at Quarterback as I don’t think the Cowboys/Chiefs game is gonna wind up out scoring the other games by 20 points.
A quick schedule announcement regarding Thanksgiving. There will be a Thanksgiving Ambush article that comes out Wednesday evening and it will cover all three Thanksgiving Day games.
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Injury News
Nothing going into tomorrow which we don’t already know that is of concern.
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Weather Information
Nothing that is a big impact anywhere but here’s what we’re gonna get
- Bal/Chi – Light rain, low 40’s
- Det/Cle – Light rain, low 40’s
- Hou/Ten – Light rain
- Dal/KC – 15 mph Winds
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Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
Titans: It’s hard to look ahead past a divisional opponent, but they play @ NE next week.
Niners: Traveling west to east after MNF game.
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Josh Allen
The Colts passing defense is so bad but everyone fails to jump on automatically attacking them because they hide it statistically through controlling the clock w/ their offense. But their a funnel away from the running game because when push comes to shove do you want to run at DeForest Bucker/Taylor Stallworth or do you want to throw at T.J. Carrie and attack Andrew Sendejo on the backend? It’s a no brainer and Quarterbacks destroy bad safeties, schemes destroy bad linebackers. Josh Allen is going to destroy the Colts.
Joe Burrow
I simply ask myself who on the Raiders is going to cover J’Marr Chase ? Who is going to cover Tee Higgins? Who is going to get a consistent pass rush when the Bengals are triple teaming Maxx Crosby? The answer is nobody and it all winds up pointing to Joe Burrow having a really good game in the dome out in Vegas.
Tyrod Taylor
There’s a lot of what I consider bad discussion on value Quarterbacks this week with people actually going Cam Newton and fucking Joe Flacco! I kid you not. Cam at least makes sense given that he steals 1 yard touchdown runs but Tyrod Taylor is the better value Quarterback in a better match-up in my mind.
Tennessee’s pass defense is very bad and a strong funnel — they should have a hard time controlling Brandin Cooks and gave up almost 300 yards passing to Trevor Siemien and it should have been 350 if the Saints WR could catch a football. Tyrod is my favorite of the value Quarterbacks with Tua being a close second.
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Christian McCaffery
Washington is very thin at linebacker, which is a terrible position to be thin at when facing premiere running backs who catch a ton of passes. One thing I know for certain Cam Newton is going to do is go back to his old faithful at dumping things off to CMC. Sure, Ron Rivera is going to be fully aware of this combination because of his time in Carolina, however the former Panther HC and now Washington coach cannot prevent CMC from hauling in 7+ receptions this week which he should do in his sleep.
AJ Dillon
Dillon isn’t cheap, but he’s also not expensive, he’s just right. That is the bottom line as he will have to be the full go back for the Packers without Aaron Jones. Opportunity share increasing, opponent is good, player is talented, yeah, there’s a lot to trust with Dillon this week as good chalk.
Michael Carter
My break out player of the week is Michael Carter. He has shown flashes the last two games of what we saw when he was running wild at North Carolina & with Joe Flacco starting I expect the Jets to be smarter with trying to attack Miami at their weakness which is on the ground and definitely not passing on the outside.
James Conner
The Cardinals have a BYE week after this game and it’s clearly their goal to get Kyler Murray through that healthy, so we’re not going to get Kyler rushing in this game and it’s a spot where they should beat up the Seahawks via the ground like everyone else has.
Nick Chubb
I would caution you on going overboard on Chubb this week, but the matchup vs Detroit is obviously nice. The Lions give up plenty of yardage opportunities since their offense cannot sustain drives and this is a scenario where Cleveland should get Chubb the ball 14+ times and plenty of goal line work, but I assume D’Ernest Johnson remains in the mix and it becomes somewhat of a 60/40 split.
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Tyreek Hill
And there goes that man Tyreek Hill. Kansas City is going to run through their big three and if you have any desire to anchor your lineup around this game you’ll have to play Tyreek or Kelce this week. Tyreek should carve up the Cowboys defense once the ball is in his hands.
J’Marr Chase
What is not to love about my boy Chase. As I said above in regards to Burrow, who is going to cover him? How? The only scenario he doesnt blow up this slate is if the Bengals get touchdowns elsewhere, but Chase is going to top 100 yards receiving in this spot and he’ll be among the top WR when the week is over.
Michael Gallup
When I did my notes on Monday morning for this weeks games I immediately jumped to this being a good Michael Gallup spot. Late in the week I have seen others jump onto him given his favorable price tag, so do not expect him to be “contrarian” at all here, but between Gallup and Cooper the Cowboys are going to have success in the air vs Kansas City. I like Gallup to emerge with a big game.
Stefon Diggs / Emmanuel Sanders / Cole Beasley
My #1 target with Josh Allen will be Dawson Knox at TE, but all three of his primary WR should see good enough production this week. Sanders and Beasley are priced in the right spot to pair with Allen’s high price tag, so you wont go wrong with any of them in my mind. Preference is on Sanders/Beasley.
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Contrarian Stars
Adam Thielen
Back when Diggs was running on the opposite side Theilen would always carve up the Packers and now the attention is going over to Jefferson it even boosts the chances for Theielen to have a nice 7 to 9 catch explosion game here. The Packers defense has to focus on Cook and Jefferson which only helps him out more and he should do well over the middle vs the Packers.
D.K. Metcalf
We’re all being too cautious with the Seattle passing attack. Teams are having more success moving the ball on the Cardinals via the ground, but the Seahawks have no real ground game to speak of. Wilson’s second game back has to further the chances that he has a 3TD type upside game coming and there’s no reason to ignore both Metcalf and/or Lockett to produce.
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Value WR
Tre’Quan Smith
If Smith can avoid Darius Slay (which he should on third downs) he will have another good catch game. Tre’Quan has quietly been playing really well of late since coming off IR and works the middle of the field more than the other Saints WR options. Once again without Alvin Kamara
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Mike Gesicki
One of the most consistent players all season, with Tua back under center for hopefully the full game he should once again finish among the top TE this week.
Dawson Knox
I loooove Dawson Knox, and Knox scoring a touchdown is one of my lock plays this week. With Allen being so highly projected for me we have to consider all options, including his favorite red zone target.
Darren Waller
Waller should draw more 1:1 coverage against Vonn Bell this week and the Raiders are going to no doubt be playing in an up tempo spot which increases the number of pass attempts for Carr and thus increases the chances that Waller has a highly productive day.
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Cleveland Browns
Who the heck is the Lions Quarterback? Does it really matter? Detroit is coming off that TIE and teams coming off TIE lack closure in my mind. This is a clear miss match and the safest spot on the board.
Baltimore Ravens
I believe in coaches when times get tough and the Ravens have the much better coach. That is going to result in Special Teams and Defense winning this spot for Baltimore in a game that I feel is a near must win for the Ravens. Look for them to confuse Fields, and force 3+ turnovers on Chicago.
New Orleans Saints
Dennis Allen interviewed for the Eagles HC job and was basically just used to check a box — he’s pissed and he is going to exact his revenge on Sunday.
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Ambush Play #1 … Who is the MVP of the NFL and why is it Josh Allen?
A very interesting story line this NFL season is the lack of a clear debate for NFL MVP. Honestly nobody is running away with things right now and we can even make the case that we don’t have a 1:1 debate. This is a spot for Josh Allen to take control of the AFC by leading the Bills in a game they should drop 40 in and win by 2+ touchdowns.
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Ambush Play #2 … Gallup your way to the end zone twice along with 800,000 of your closest friends
I loved Gallup as soon as I saw this game. His second game back, his ability to beat coverage on the outside and of course his price tag. With Cooper out the chalk on Gallup just doubled from 20% to 40% and so there’s no reason in my mind to pass up on this weeks version of the free square.
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Ambush Play #3 … The Smaller Slates Are Gold This Week
We always write up about the main slate and breaking down who the plays are, but with the balance of games this week we have what would be two amazing 1PM/4PM only slates. And the 4PM only is one that you should be playing specifically to get your mind right for the upcoming three game Thanksgiving Day slate next week.
For 1PM only you are getting the benefit of avoiding the Cowboys-Chiefs late game hammer and the ownership early will get spread out into some bad spots in my mind, which opens us up for the Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills circling the wagons game stack.
On the late slate, it’s all about your willingness to sweat out not having the DAL-KC game because there are two great shootout potential spots outside of that game which get ignored. Out of Lamb-Gallup-Hill-Kelce you have four guys that will eat up a ton of ownership late. The interesting thing though is the RB options late aren’t much better than Zeke Elliott, so I would play him late along side James Conner and then go with a build around Burrow-Chase-Metcalf-Waller as other late slate pieces with Waller being the questionable one to look at Uzomah or just bite the bullet with Kelce.
But play Josh Allen and the Bills on a 1PM lineup as well. Don’t let that main slate play get caught by the Dallas-KC game and not have some 1PM only equity as well.
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Ambush Play #4 … Running it Back …
We have another week of value at RB position as once again Mark Ingram is the primary RB for New Orleans and other spots opening up with Aaron Jones being out for Green Bay + Eli Mitchell being out for the 49ers. Those three spots are drawing the most attention for “cheaper” RB although AJ Dillon for Green Bay is probably priced fairly. Bottom line here is that we’ll once again have to consider these options but unlike last week I have more confidence in the value spots. I would lock in Dillon, be ok with Ingram and fade Jeff Wilson personally. But we’re once again in a value RB scenario this week.
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Ambush Play #5 … FADES OF THE WEEK
QB – Patrick Mahomes, Cam Newton
RB – Jeff Wilson
WR – Davante Adams
TE – Dan Arnold
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Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it … Russell Wilson?
How quickly we have a short memory in the National Football League. A week ago all the talk was about Wilson vs Rodgers in their “comebacks” after missing previous games for various reasons and now both are going to be completely ignored on a deep Quarterback week. Of the two, I think Wilson has more upside to offer and at less ownership.
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Trash Games
SF vs JAX – Game will be okay in terms of points, but is just trash to predict in DFS. Deebo Samuel certainly looks nice but I don’t trust Jimmy G at all.
BAL vs CHI – What a train wreck game
MIA vs NYJ – Gesicki and Carter thats it
NO vs PHI – Find a Golden Girls Marathon instead.
WAS vs CAR – CMC only
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Favorite Upsets
Houston +10 vs Tennessee
Jaguars over San Francisco
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