I can honestly say there is a nice peaceful calm to the current NFL DFS environment and this is VERY common in my mind post Thanksgiving. It has led to these weeks being some of the most enjoyable ones historically and after a really good week last week I am really high on the confidence level for the upcoming final month of the season.
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Last Minute Injury News
DeSean Jackson – LVR – Questionable: He is a nice 4PM only play if in.
David Johnson and Brandin Cooks – HOU – Questionable (Illness): They should go but if they dont please hammer the Colts Defense
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Weather Information
There are no issues. I saw some tweets promoting massive weather issues this weekend and give me a fucking break. Sure it will be cold and windy in Chicago, but last I checked Andy Dalton and Kyler Murray can hand off without the wind bothering them. There is literally zero other weather concerns this weekend. It’s football people.
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Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
Arizona isn’t in a great spot coming off their BYE with some big games coming up. They’re going on the road into a cold/windy spot with guys coming off IR at the same time.
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Joe Burrow & Justin Herbert
You know the picture of Derrick Henry at the National Championship game where he is standing next to Mark Ingram and he looks like he is 4x the size of Ingram? That is this game compared to everything else this weekend. In terms of total points, volume, talent, match-ups and dead sexy second year Quarterbacks this game has it all. I will have both sides in the same lineup and both sides in a second lineup as well. Any other lineup will just be off this game entirely in the event that some man runs onto the field pisses on the field judge and the league cancels the game for fear that officials will soon be found out for their intentional fucking around with bullshit flags on the field.
Oh, you probably wan’t analysis on which guy to go? Okay, fine. Burrow to me is the lead dog because I expect the Chargers to have the lead and do whatever they can to shut down Mixon which is going to open up a vulnerable secondary to J’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and CJ Uzomah to have big games in the air. Look for Burrow to have the 3 TD floor while Herbert is mostly going to be working through Ekeler and Allen, but they’re both fine.
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Derek Carr
This game doesn’t have as much juice in total points as the LAC-CIN game but what it does have is a narrowed pool of DFS options. Washington and Vegas are both a little banged up offensively so the production should be fairly concentrated in this game. For Vegas they’ll likely have Josh Jacobs but the real way to beat Washington is through the air and even passing to RB. Everything should flow through Carr who has a high chance of posting another 300 yard game with 2 touchdowns.
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Play 3 RB this week on FanDuel.
Jonathan Taylor
Ask yourself which of these scenarios you are more comfortable with. Are you more comfortable playing Taylor and getting a 14 from him or not playing Taylor and he posts a 38 at 30%+ ownership? If you are a normal person you would take the 14 worst case scenario there, which I highly doubt is what we get against Houston.
David Montgomery
A very cheap David Montgomery is on the menu for us considering he has had 10 days to rest up and will not have any fears of Justin Fields taking away some rushing potential. Arizona is soft vs the run & this is a good RB who will get the ball 20+ times combined through rushes and catches.
Jammal Williams
There’s a ton of RB this week that are opening up as “popular” plays, but Williams among all of them is one I am good with taking. The Lions are going to come up and win a game when nobody actually expects it and with Minnesota playing a TON of road games and a ton of travel lately they’re prime for a sleep spot. Williams will assume the lead role for the Lions and he gets the Swift usage here. For his price, he has 3-4x potential easily.
Antonio Gibson
Good game flow, JD McKissic is out and he’s about 1500 too cheap on both sites.
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Bold Calls / Fades / RB Notes
Jeff Wilson vultures Eli Mitchell as he fills in the Deebo Samuel goal line role.
I am not touching the Rams RB situation
Joe Mixon is FINE in a Cincy stack, but I prefer the passing game as I think theyre trailing whole game
No on Alex Mattison, full Vikings fade.
Barkley/Gaskin only in NYG/MIA donkey stack.
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Keenan Allen
Nobody on Cincinnati will slow down the machine that is Keenan Allen on Sunday. Cincinnati has to worry about covering Ekeler and Jared Cook here as well which is going to be a massive boost for Keenan who I have as getting 10+ catches this week. He is a must own.
J’Marr Chase
And nobody on the Chargers will slow down the show that is J’Marr Chase on Sunday. Enjoy it.
Hunter Renfrow
The price tag on Renfrow just has not caught up to the reality which is he is a PPR machine as the current #1 in Las Vegas and with other options banged up and out he should have a high target game against a team who gives up 76% of their touchdowns through the air and a 68% completion rate. Hard to not like Renfrow as a core play this week.
Terry McLaurin
Much like Renfrow is going to get lots of volume for the Raiders, so too will Terry McLaurin for Washington. Hard to not pair these two together on DK.
Chris Godwin
Anytime touchdown betters should run to the window and place a bet on Godwin to anytime score vs Atlanta. He’ll avoid AJ Terrell this week and Brady should get him a quick early touchdown. Something I expect from Brady is to utilize Godwin in the slot against the Falcons and then get some involvement for Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson too. Tampa can easily go 4 WR + 1 TE because their OL can block Atlanta all day long without concern and Brady will get Godwin a touchdown this week.
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SLEEPERS
Chase Claypool
Pittsburgh is going to rebound with a win vs Baltimore, who hasn’t exactly been dominant this season on defense. While we cannot endorse using Ben again, we can go to his outside WR in Claypool who will draw the lesser coverage assignments.
Kenny Golladay
Gut call that Golladay has a game out of nowhere with Mike Glennon at QB. This should be a spot that Golladay can high point some passes and be a sneaky WR this week.
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Dallas Goedert
No matter who starts at QB for the Eagles this should be a spot where Goedert gets back into the endzone vs the Jets.
CJ Uzomah
A lot of attention is going to Foster Moreau as a value TE this week however I want someone who is in a high scoring game if you are pivoting for a better cheap play and Uzomah faces the 26th ranked team in yards given up and touchdowns to opposing TE. He is a nice 2nd pass catcher option w/ Burrow
Foster Moreau
You want something that nobody else will do this week but I assure you will work out? Play 2 TE on DraftKings who are both cheap… Moreau is the chalk play here but paired w/ Uzomah is really going to help build construction and both should hit good value. Logan Thomas for Washington is also in play too as he is fully good to go.
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Tampa Bay Buccaners
Tampa is arguably my favorite defense this week. They’re getting a little more healthy and should thrive when blitzing non stop against the terrible Falcons O-Line.
L.A. Rams
Its an obvious get right game for the Rams at home vs the Jaguars — except what if they just arent that good? Well, their defense should shine at a minimum.
Indianapolis Colts
If the Texans are at all limited with some skill position players then the Colts will shine easily.
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#1. Second year QB’s Burrow and Herbert both shine
Stack up the Bengals/Chargers as the premiere game of the week.
#2. RB is deep but that doesn’ mean over pay
There are a good amount of running backs who are in “only guy” spots this week so we have temptation to want to lock in a bunch of RB. That said, do not sacrifice other positions by taking all the high $ RB. It’s Taylor and then get good mid range after that.
Must play RB is David Montgomery
#3. Funneled passes = … well I got nothing that rhymes here but
McLaurin, Thomas, Renfrow, Moreau are going to get all the targets in a game where both defenses allow heavy passing volume on both sides. So that’s a spot to focus on for easy DK PPR production.
Must play WR is Hunter Renfrow
#4. AMBUSH Fades of the week
QB – Matt Stafford
RB – Eli Mitchell, Len Fournette
WR – Michael Pittman, Cooper Kupp
TE – Cole Kmet
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I will have Sunday morning update with bets and Ambush final thoughts.