This is the first of two meetings down the stretch between the top two teams in the AFC East right now and arguably two of the top teams overall in the AFC. This is a huge game not only for the division title but for potential control over the #1 seed at the end of the season. We come into tonight’s game with a fairly low 41.5 over/under and the Bills only favored by -2.5, but despite those ugly looking numbers I think we have a clear answer on this game.
Because, nobody, and I mean, nobody, circles the wagons … Like the Buffalo Bills.
Give me Buffalo covering and the over, which I expect to hit by mid way through the third quarter at the latest.
CAPTAINS CHOICE’S
Tonight is the Josh Allen show for Buffalo. I think it’s very difficult to expect anyone else besides Stefon Diggs to top over 20 fantasy points tonight and it’s hard enough to play Diggs & Allen together so give me the sure thing guy who would get points in any correlation scenario between those two players. I believe in going all in on one or two captains with Showdown because it’s such a lottery ticket DFS contest and I’ll go over the field in exposure here with Allen as 100% captain’s choice tonight.
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BUILD CONSTRUCTION
50% – 4-2 Bills (Meaning 4 Bills and 2 Patriots)
Primary build is 4&2 tonight with Allen as the Captain everywhere and rolling a total of 2 Patriots on the other side.
50% – 3-2-1 Bills/Kickers/Pats
Secondary build is a 3-2-1 with both kickers in play. I expect some short fields to come up in this game which would lead to some longer field goals after quick drives. If we can get 2+ FG from both kickers and some extra points they’ll both be in play given how much the ball will be spread around on both sides. So a 3 (Bills) 2 (Both Kickers) and 1 (Patriot) construct to me is very enticing tonight.
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TIER ONE FLEX PLAYS
Kendrick Bourne (8.6k) & Jakobi Meyers (7.2k)
Very quietly Buffalo lost their star CB TreDavius White on Thanksgiving night (their last game) and both Kendrick Bourne and Jakobi Meyers have been stronger of late for the Patriots as they start to develop some chemistry with rookie QB Mac Jones. They would be the top two players for New England that I expect to produce but neither to me is any different than the other tonight.
Cole Beasley (7.8k) & Dawson Knox (5.4k)
In a match-up against a better offense we could consider Josh Allen the naked play, but doing that here tonight seems very silly. These two mid range priced options that Allen loves down in the red zone are fantastic plays.
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TIER TWO FLEX PLAYS
Gabriel Davis ($1.2k)
Great second WR option with a Josh Allen stack. At his price I would imagine many will have Allen-Diggs-Davis as a build. Consider going Allen-Beasley-Davis instead.
Damien Harris (NE)
Hard to love too much on the New England ground game any week, and the price on Harris is way up there for tonight but the most likely scenario for a touchdown from New England is going to come on the ground.
Tyler Bass (BUF – $4.4k) & Nick Folk (NE – $4.2k)
Not a terrible kicker game.
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GAME PREDICTION
Buffalo wins convincingly and covers with Josh Allen accounting for 4 touchdowns (1 rushing)
34-16 Bills