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Last Minute Injury News
Nothing I am worried about.
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Weather Information
All good.
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Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
Chargers – The Chargers are in a horrible spot this weekend. They just went on the road as dogs and won big vs the Bengals and have a quick turn around next Thursday at home against the Chiefs. They’re getting the Giants who are practicing out in Arizona all week after their road game in Miami last week and now the Chargers have also dealt with massive COVID outbreak at their WR position all week. This is a horrible spot for them.
Lions – Do you honestly think the Lions are going to win two in a row?
Do you?
Do you honestly think the Lions with 21+ players out with illness this week at practice are going to win this game?
Do you?
Now they have no D’Andre Swift and no Jammal Williams?
And Jared Goff for sure got laid this week.
So did Dan Campbell
They’re not winning in Denver.
And now the DeMaryius Thomas tragic death?
C’Mon.
Broncos by 30.
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Josh Allen
A team who doesn’t run the ball faces a team who doesn’t allow anyone to run on them and does not have the depth to handle the 5 passing options that Allen has. Emmanuel Sanders destroyed the Bucs last year but if you remember the Tyreek Hill @ Tampa game in the regular season last year then that should remind you of good reasons to play Stefon Diggs who will be Allen’s go to guy all day long.
Joe Burrow
Cincinnati is playing their third straight home game and has already lost the obligatory “gotta lose 1 of them” spot. It’s just a solid trend and with that in our rear view mirror and a bad 49ers defense coming in, Joey B will get back on track this week from the start. Bengals win on his back.
Taysom Hill
I love Allen and I love Joey B, but if you’re gonna find a cheap QB on DraftKings you will have a hard time beating out lord Taysom in the Morman QB Bowl.
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Saquon Barkley
I dont know if the Giants will just go direct snap to Barkley, but they can’t do much worse. Without any real Quarterback option (Jake Fromm??? Lol), and facing a team in a classic trap spot that sucks against the run, we should see Barkley break off not one but two big runs and his upside to finish as RB1 this week is VERY high.
Chuba Hubbard
Love me some Hubbard against the Falcons, who are quickly back to their 2013-2016 era defense when they funneled everything down to running backs. With CMC gone and a change at Offensive Coordinator over their BYE, the Panthers should simplify their offense and run it through the rookie RB who is more than capable of having a 5 catch game here and 80+ yards on the ground. A Solid 120 total yardage plus those catches and hopefully a touchdown and we have ourselves a guy to lock in for a good price point.
Josh Jacobs
Good match-up for him to get a ton of volume at a great price point. Really growing on me as we get closer to Sunday.
Alvin Kamara
The Jets rank 31st in the league in receptions to running backs, 32nd in rushing touchdowns and 30th in rushing yards allowed. New Orleans is getting a little healthier on the offensive line and should likely have plenty of short fields with a strong performance from their defense this week. If you want a third RB to get you a solid number Kamara will fit that bill, however I do not expect a ceiling game so he is not necessarily the best pt/$ play — but among the higher priced guys this week I would lean him over Ekeler, Mixon and Chubb.
Javonte Williams
There just isn’t much to say here, if Gordon had stayed away this week then Williams would have been heavy chalk as we all chase the fact that he went off given the full time role on Sunday Night last week and now gets the Lions off a win and now a week full of illnesses across their team. But for me even with Melvin Gordon coming back and the passing game likely having a solid game, we gotta consider a very underpriced J.Williams.
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JaMarr Chase
Chase has had a couple rough weeks but we are not going to see them stop throwing him the deep ball just because he had one bad drop last week that turned into an INT. The Bengals are on their third straight home game and need a strong bounce back game this week after last weeks ugly start vs the Chargers. That means run through Chase.
Stefon Diggs / Emmanuel Sanders
Another team coming off what feels like an ugly performance is Buffalo, but we cannot blame the passing game on Diggs because it was coaching and weather that held them back. There’s absolutely nobody who will be wearing a Buccaneer uniform that can cover or slow down Stefon Diggs this week. His $8100 price compared to Sanders ($4900) and Beasley ($5000) can obviously be debated and depends more on the rest of your roster, but there is no bad path through the Bills passing game.
Amari Cooper / CeeDee Lamb
I’m a little shocked that nobody is using Dak Prescott this week. He has been on this every other trend of late and finally has all three stud WR options available to him, plus we likely have Tony Pollard banged up with a foot injury here which flows to throwing more to the WR. I personally really like Dak, but am more confident finding my exposure to him through these two studs. Look for Cooper to slowly get more snaps and have a solid catch game (DK) while Lamb has the TD upside (FD) certainly.
Jerry Jeudy
Broncos are scoring 40 and Jeudy breaks a big one. We have a lot of mouths here who can do well so obviously there is risk with Denver WR but Jeudy is not only going to see the most targets, but comes with the most ownership and so if you are afraid of chalk hitting again, he’s your guy.
Laviska Shenault
The Jags don’t have a ton of offensive weapons but they’re getting a heavy funnel spot towards the pass and this is a better match-up on paper than what folks will drive towards with Jalen Guyton chalk/Chargers. Tennessee is horrific defending passing games, and we should see Shenault continue to figure out if he can make it in this league or not. Like the spot for him to catch a long pass for a touchdown.
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Do not overlook playing two good Tight End’s this week.
Travis Kelce
What is obvious is good in the case of Travis Kelce against the Las Vegas Raiders. 8 catches, 100+ yards and a touchdown. That is essentially what he has averaged the last three meetings against Las Vegas (1 this year and 2 last season) and there’s not much reason to expect a change in that scenario this week. We’re basically talking about a 20 point play here in the same way we would look at a premium Running Back getting us 20 points without much challenge.
George Kittle
I personally think Kittle can beat Kelce this week, but I’m not going to try and sway you to play one over the other because we have a relatively average pool at RB and WR, so playing two Tight Ends makes a ton of sense on both sites. Kittle has assumed the alpha role for the 49ers passing game now that he is back and Deebo Samuel is also injured. The obvious scenario is that he won’t come close to his 42 point outbreak last week, but we should have a high scoring, high paced game that results in Kittle having 6+ catches, 75+ yards and should once again be Jimmy’s top red zone target.
Dawson Knox
Down in Tampa, Florida and down in price on DraftKings is Mr. Southern Man Dawson Knox getting yards over the middle against Tampa. Because that’s what Tight Ends do vs the Bucs, who rank 25th in receptions and 22nd in yards allowed to TE.
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Denver Broncos
How are the Lions going to score?
New Orleans Saints
Saints defense got called out by Sean Payton, but he did it privately to them before going public with the call out. Marcus Davenport returns and should have a 3 sack game and a forced fumble that leads to a defensive touchdown by some defensive tackle you have never heard of.
Denver Broncos
Hey fucktard. Why are you still reading the defenses section when you haven’t answered how the Lions are going to score?
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Ambush #1 – RB of the week is … nobody?
That’s right, there’s no Jonathan Taylor and no smash spot for a value RB either despite folks wanting to run to some late week value spots. This is going to be exactly opposite from a few weeks prior when value RB came in and did very well. Not the case here and we want to live in the mid range for our core RB this week.
I outlined Barkley and Hubbard as two guys above that I really like, but the pool is fairly spread out around them as well. Bottom line though, none of them are going to smash above the rest so feel confident getting a 5k-6k running back in your lineup and letting them get you ~3x and move on.
Ambush #2 – WR of the week is Stefon Diggs
Just put Diggs in your lineup and come Sunday when you want to tinker, just remember Stefon wants you to leave it in.
Ambush #3 – TE sneaky play of the week is to play both Kelce and Kittle
Settle your debate at TE by locking in Kelce as the top play while viewing Kittle as a comparison to a thin RB and WR pool this week. Play two TE whether its these two or throwing in Dawson Knox as part of a Buffalo Bills stack.
VALUE DARTS
The value is to NOT lock in too much $ at RB and then find a value WR, here are the value WR darts this week on DraftKings
- Laviska Shenault
- Devin Duvernay
- Marquez Callaway
- Adam Humphries
- Freddie Swain
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Question: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it Dakota Prescott?
I mentioned this above and it’s still odd to me that everyone is ignoring Prescott. Is it because he didn’t play the last two Sunday’s? Is it because Tony Pollard has been the new shiny toy here? I am not sure why but last I checked Washington’s pass defense was not going to be suddenly getting better.
Question: Why is nobody talking about Jacksonville/Tennessee?
What kind of stupid question is this? Sorry. Well, not sorry. No, I get it. Both teams are bad vs the pass, so we should want to roster a receiver on either side aaaaaaaah, no, we’re not going to Julio Jones and Laviska Shenault… Orrrr are we?
Question: Top Bets
- Denver -10, consider alternate lines up to -21 on this one. Wont even be close.
- Jacksonville +8.5
Question: Extreme Bets?
- NY Giants win
- Tampa Bay loses by 20
The Ambush Week 14 Parlay
Panthers -2.5
Ravens/Browns OVER 42.5
Cowboys/Washington OVER 48
Titans ML
Raiders +9.5
Saints -5.5
Bengals ML
Seattle ML
Denver -10
NY Giants +9.5
Buffalo +3.5
Packers ML