By now I trust that you are fully aware of all the COVID issues around the league and with that we have what I think ties for the smallest slate in DFS history considering no teams are on BYE this week.
Our content schedule plan is now nothing for Saturday and then Rob and I are looking to do some live-stream breakdown on Monday afternoon before the double-headers on Monday and Tuesday.
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Last Minute Injury News
Who the hell knows at this point to be honest. I will just say that from a pure injury stand point everyone that I am expecting to play should be cleared to go. There’s really no point doing deep dive injury analysis on pivots to consider the day before the games right now.
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Weather Information
Unfortunately there is no snow yet…. Bummer.
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Possible Trap/Look ahead spots
Honestly the COVID situation could cause teams to be distracted, but there’s really no major trap this week. Arizona going into Detroit would appear to be one but you can’t have a trap off a loss.
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Matt Ryan
You weren’t expecting this now were you? I have said for years that Quarterback does not matter, but I am still going to be sick to my stomach watching Matt fricken Ryan and the Falcons face the Niners, my two most hated franchises on Sunday afternoon. But that’s before I notice that Ryan is going to be winning me 28x across 3 sites for sure.
Why do I love Ryan this week? For starters, it’s a thin slate with limited options, but secondary it’s the Niners defense which we should be picking on over and over again. Do not treat Kyle Pitts with DvP as a TE vs San Francisco, because he continues to be used as their WR1 while Cordarelle Patterson leads the way in rushing options. But Ryan has always played well vs his former Offensive Coordinator and the Falcons offense should be able to give him time against a mediocre pass rush and bad secondary.
Dak Prescott
Too much has been made about Dak being in a slump. With his WR all healthy I expect him to find CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup a good amount against the Giants. The RB here are banged up and the Cowboys could use a good game from Prescott.
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James Robinson
We’re all going to buy into the Fuck U-rban Meyer narrative this weekend and why the heck not? The Texans rush defense isn’t magically going to mold into a top tier defense overnight and the Jaguars are surely going to show up with some energy this week.
Michael Carter
All indications are that Michael Carter is fully cleared for a full usage this week. The Jets should have little to no success passing against Miami but they should have a solid running game performance. Carter on a thin RB slate like this is someone to strongly consider as a top end play.
Saquan Barkley
A theme for us to consider this week is riding talent and Barkley while not the elite RB that everyone perceived he was going to be out of college is still a very talented back who is healthy and about 100% of the Giants offense.
Myles Gaskin
This is a bad RB slate and Gaskin is facing the 30th ranked rush defense in the league with some limited skill options around him here. He returned to the Dolphins on Friday off COVID list and should be cleared to go.
Joe Mixon
Mixon is getting overlooked as are the entire Bengals offense. Sure, Denver is a decent defense but the rush defense is middle of the pack in rushing yards allowed. They rank #1 in rushing touchdowns allowed so I can’t say it’s a smash spot for Mixon, but Cincinnati is winning this game and he will top 100 yards.
James Conner
Chase Edmonds is back and has to factor in to the mix to drop Conner’s upside down, he is too expensive on FanDuel but still a nice play on DK at $6,400.
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Diontae Johnson
We know the deal with Diontae, he’s going to get his 10+ targets and probably more since the Titans funnel everything to the passing game. Ben could probably throw left handed and still complete 5+ passes to Johnson this week, so take his 8 for 95 and move on.
CeeDee Lamb
If Lamb is not 50% owned this weekend then the DFS space is stupid. That is all.
Deebo Samuel
I will get to the Atlanta side in this game stack but we gotta first figure out the San Francisco side. Atlanta is back to giving up receptions to running backs and so if Deebo is used in that role again then he’s likely to catch a few if Shannahan is smart. Yeah, he’s gonna cost you like the other two guys above him but Deebo is for sure the primary Niner play to use in ATL-SF stacks.
Marquise Brown
Speed kills the Packers. Brown was able to practice on Friday and should be good to go for the top game on the slate for viewing pleasure. He has to factor in if the Ravens are going to keep this game close.
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Also do not mind:
- DeVante Parker (great price tag here on all sites)
- Jerry Jeudy
- Cole Beasley
- Allen Lazard
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Kyle Pitts
Week fifteen, that is how long it took me and now … here we are. I’m 100% on the Kyle Pitts train this week and if he finishes with some garbage production like 5 catches for 42 yards and no touchdown then it’s a miss. But we have a thin week at TE and there’s going to be plenty of mistakes made here while we get the pre-season darling in a spot where there should be many long drives put together for the Falcons. The Niners are 20th or worst in most categories to WR this season and Pitts should continue to be in the WR role now that Hayden Hurst is back.
Brevin Jordan
Only recommending him for the purposes of early only slate. It’s him or Gesicki, who certainly is better play but pt/$ I think they’ll be close.
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Arizona Cardinals
With the Lions having their win already and some key guys banged up the Cardinals Defense is in a nice spot.
Buffalo Bills
The Panthers offense is a trainwreck joke right now. Plenty of turnover chances, plenty of sacks chances and likely a low scoring spot.
Cincinnati Bengals
My sleeper team to get 3+ sacks on Teddy Bridgewater and a couple key turnovers.
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The Week 15 AMBUSH Plays
#1 – Matt Ryan to Kyle Pitts in a old school NFC West shootout in San Francisco with the 49ers.
#2 – RB is thin so do not pay up here this week and ride the Florida Chalk between Robinson and Gaskin
#3 – Diontae Johnson leads the way in volume at WR and Marquise Brown / CeeDee Lamb are the 100 yard + touchdown plays
#4 – Simple is, simple does. Arizona Cardinals get in to Detroit and take care of business on defense
#5 – AMBUSH FADES:
- Najee Harris
- Gabriel Davis
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Question: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it Deebo Samuel?
This is my favorite run it back for San Francisco and I believe Samuel’s ownership will still get up to close to 8-10%, however the way he has been playing and used in this offense that is just too low against the Falcons. A lot of ownership is chasing George Kittle after two solid weeks and with a thin amount of top end TE options this week, but we’re all in on Kyle Pitts and so our run it back is Deebo Samuel here who I think thrives out of the backfield for the Niners (who are also without Elijah Mitchell again).
Question: Second favorite game stack after Atlanta/San Francisco
Cowboys and Giants
- Prescott, Lamb, Barkley
Question: Top Bets
- ATL/SF Over 46.5
- Falcons ML
- Bengals +3
- Buffalo -11.5