Happy New Year. It should be the end of the NFL season and in many ways I think this week 17 is going to make it feel like we have two Week 18’s this season. Lots of dead/dull games this week which I am almost entirely ignoring since it’s as big of a slate as we normally have with 14 games on it.
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Last Minute Injury News to Monitor
Hopefully nothing major comes up this week. I think we are in the clear now but some spots of note
- Denver is without all of their top end WR
- Washington is without Antonio Gibson
- New Orleans is without most of their offensive line
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Weather Information
SNOW
LOTS OF SNOW
WE HAVE A SNOW GAME
Giants at Bears – Snowy Soldier Field, David Montgomery and Saquan Barkley. Giddy up boys (and girls)!
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Games which are just dead to me for various reasons
- Dolphins at Titans – I like DaVante Parker but don’t see a shootout.
- Falcons at Bills – Dumpster fire game.
- Jaguars at Patriots – Pats defense & ground game
- Bucs at Jets
- Texans at 49ers – Have fun w/ Trey Lance
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With so many options this week due to the increase in games you should once again not overthink a QB simply because they are “chalky” or trendy.
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The Ambush Play
Kyler Murray
This is expected to be the best back and forth shootout game this week. Yes, I believe it’s better than the Chiefs-Bengals in terms of both sides shooting out and the Cardinals are desperate here and need Kyler to have a great game otherwise they are in big trouble.
Also Will Play
Taysom Hill
This is a much better pt/$ play on DraftKings where at $6,000 you’ll get more than enough production with Hill having an easy time against the Panthers defense which is mailing things in. Their LB will over compensate for Alvin Kamara leaving Taysom free on a few read option plays inside the red zone. New Orleans will give Taysom short fields and he’s going to contribute for 3 touchdowns this week.
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The Good Chalk
We start off with the good chalk at RB this week because it’s a position where we do not need to mess around much on this slate.
Jonathan Taylor
Expect Taylor to get the full workload with Carson Wentz having to miss practice due to COVID-19 protocols this week. The Colts strength is their offensive line, which will be healthy and has a good advantage on the ground against the Raiders.
David Montgomery
Mr end of season is once again on our radar. For someone getting as much run as him he should not be $6,500 on DraftKings in an easy 3x return spot. I do have concerns that we’ll see some trickery from the Bears to mix things up but Montgomery should have a good snow game battle ewith Barkley.
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The Ambush Plays
Austin Ekeler
This game requires multiple lineups in it but it’s my favorite sneaky shootout game of the week. I fully believe that Denver should let Drew Lock air it out and could give this bad Chargers defense concerns, which directly correlates to the Chargers needing to involve Ekeler more and more. He had a good outing in their first match-up and should figure to have 100 all purpose yards and a touchdown here again.
D’Andre Swift
Is he really 100% and ready to go? Seems kind of odd at this point but I don’t see why Dan Campbell would lie. The Lions are still competing, while the Seahawks are already looking at Mariners games. The terrible rush defense that Seattle has should be a gold mine for Swift to run wild
Saquan Barkley
Close your eyes and imagine in a snow globe, Saquan Barkley returning to Soldier Field where he tore up his knee and going off in the snow. It’s glorious is it not?
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The Forgotten Men
Alvin Kamara
The Panthers have absolutely trash LB and that is a recipe for disaster against Kamara, the Panther killer.
Javonte Williams
Elite talent vs bad rush defense and the Broncos are without all of their top end WR. We gotta think he catches a few more passes, gets a heavier work load and should thrive against a bad rush defense.
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The Ambush Plays
CeeDee Lamb
Lamb should be at the top of our lists this week and to me is a better play than Cooper Kupp. Kupp will cost you 10k/9.5k and is in a game which should have a much slower tempo than the AZ-DAL game will have.
DeVante Parker
After being shutdown vs an elite CB on Monday Night Parker will get a softer man to man match-up this week which can benefit him. Parker draws one of the bottom defenses against the pass and in the short passing game should thrive while everyone else jumps onto the Waddle bandwagon.
The Good Chalk
Christian Kirk
There are two options to pair with Kyler, one is below in the TE section and the other is Kirk who should blow past the Cowboys secondary – specifically Trevon Diggs when Dallas drops into zone coverage as I expect them to do some more this week. Kirk’s been one of the two guys to see a volume increase and the tempo in this game is going to be solid.
The Forgotten Men
Hunter Renfroe
He is too good in the undeneath passing game for the Colts to completely shut him down. Love Renfroe in correlation running it back with Jonathan Taylor lineups.
Deep Sleepers
D.J. Moore
Saint killer who can get a boost with Marcus Williams missing the game in the secondary.
Marquez Callaway & Deonte Harris
The Saints are finally using Callaway in the short passing game and a good amount of that is due to not having their best offensive line in play. I would expect that to be the case again this week and with Tre’Quan Smith OUT Callaway should see a good amount of targets in a comfortable passing environment.
Meanwhile on DraftKings, Deonte Harris (Harty) is min price at $3,000. He has more stats this year than Kenny Golladay who is $5,100 and is in a much better environment for having a big game than Golladay for comparison sakes. He is a great value there. Do not play both these guys together though.
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The Ambush Plays
Travis Kelce
I am in love with a Kelce this week and her name is Travis. Coming off missing a game and facing a secondary that has been beaten up by bigger TE he should be in line for a multi-touchdown game. Do not play without using Kelce, end of story.
Zach Ertz
Ertz and Kirk are the two main players to correlate with Kyler Murray in this shootout. His target volume with Hopkins out is the same as Mark Andrews who will be popular and also is 2-3k more. Take Ertz instead.
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New England Patriots
I would like to know how the Jaguars are going to score points. Please submit your possible scenarios to me via DM, text, email, snail mail, bat signal or however you communicate in 2022.
Buffalo Bills
Take what I wrote on Jacksonville and apply it to Atlanta.
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The Week 15 AMBUSH Plays
#1… Desperation time produces a shootout in Dallas as the Cardinals and Cowboys put up the game of the week scoreboard results over the Chiefs/Bengals and Rams/Ravens games.
#2… RB is clear cut, Jonathan Taylor, David Montgomery lead the way.
#3… Fade Cooper Kupp at his price and don’t take the Antonio Brown cheese.
#4… Travis Kelce is the top TE on the slate.
#5… The Ambush “dont like that” spots …
- Any Seattle Seahawks
- Rams/Ravens game
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Question: Who is getting overlooked this week and why is it Kyler Murray?
Question: Core Build?
David Montgomery, Christian Kirk, Travis Kelce
Question: Top bets on this big slate?
Parlay winners today folks, what you see is what you get.
- Bills / Patriots / Saints / Titans / Chargers Parlay