Welcome to the Conference Championship weekend where we have teams facing off that met fairly late in the regular season as well.
No weather issues in Kansas City for the AFC Championship and obviously the LA game is out in a Dome.
QB – Patrick Mahomes
I am not one who thinks that we will see a repeat high scoring battle on the AFC side, but at the same time I do not see anyone in the other game accounting for 3 touchdowns like Mahomes should. At the end of the day, this game can finish 27-23 with Mahomes accounting for three touchdowns, the under hitting and him still being the highest scoring QB on the slate that you have to have at $7,400. There is no other QB I am bothering to consider.
RB – Jerick McKinnon
He ran a route on 73% of drop backs last week and is a good chess piece vs the Bengals defense. The Chiefs passing game mostly will go through the usual guys right now in Hill, Kelce and Pringle, but if you want a third Chief I love the idea of rolling out McKinnon again and playing for 5 catches, 40 yards receiving.
TE – Travis Kelce
I will have two Tight Ends this weekend on my main/primary lineup. Kelce and Kittle. When Kelce went back to his hometown area to play the Bengals earlier this year he had a low yardage game but scored 1 TD off 7 targets. Look for them to exploit his match-up this weekend as he should be their best red zone threat. Smells like a 2 TD game if you ask me.
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RB – Joe Mixon
To me Mixon correlates best with Mahomes, because riding Mahomes as a need to finish at the top means that Burrow cannot out do him in the same game. That would have to result in Mixon going over 100 all purpose yards, hauling in a few catches and finding his way into the end zone in Arrowhead.
WR – Ja’Marr Chase
Since his days at LSU I have been pumping up that Chase is not only special but one of the greatest WR of all time starting out his career before our eyes. When you have a belief in someone like that and you see them doing it, there’s no reason to not play them in the biggest stage of their career to date.
WR – Tyler Boyd
Everyone will see Boyd hasn’t done much of late and run away. That is exactly why we run to him on Conf Championship weekend. This is annually the week when a player who is forgotten about or not on anyones radar comes out with a touchdown and Boyd is my pick for the Bengals to be a sleeper.
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WR – Deebo Samuel
There isn’t anyone on this slate who is priced easier to plug in and be a comfortable play than Deebo. That includes Kupp, Chase, Kittle, Kelce, Mahomes, Jesus, anyone…. Samuel should have 40-60 yards rushing, 50-70 yards receiving, likely has multiple red zone touches and at $7200 he’s going to be the best of the big 4 WR.
TE – George Kittle
The Rams are vulnerable to the TE spot, we know this by now. They aren’t terrible against it, but in the red zone with Shannahan continuing to have Rams number the wild card will be Kittle. He is a favorite for me this week the same way Gabriel Davis was last week.
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WR – Van Jefferson * – Questionable
A value play yes, but also some leverage away from Cooper Kupp, who I explain why I am hesitant to jam him in below. Jefferson and OBJ will have to make plays for the Rams this week and just one 30 yard TD to Van is all I am asking for please.
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CORE PLAYS
Patrick Mahomes
Joe Mixon
Travis Kelce
49ers Defense
Van Jefferson * – Favorite value play assuming he is in which I believe he will be.
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Least Amount of Exposure (i.e. Fade on 1st lineup) Play
Cooper Kupp
While Cooper Kupp is in play on DraftKings, his $10,000 price tag on FanDuel presents a fade for me on the two game slate. Of all the options I believe the Niners will do the right thing and not allow a repeat of last week here. If he finished with 16 fantasy points, we are still okay.
BETS
Bengals/Chiefs UNDER 54.5
49ers/Rams UNDER 46
49ers +3.5
Deebo Samuel Over 34.5 rushing yards
Joe Mixon OVER 51.5 rushing yards