A lot of big games today with plenty of Senior Day narratives out there as well if you want to buy into that. Historically though the Senior who gets that spot start for 3-5 minutes ends up back on the bench quickly and the better player winds up still getting his in the scenarios where you might be considering a fade/panic because you find out a star isn’t starting.
Overall the theme on this slate is we have some obvious and really good chalk out there, so digging deep into the sub 5500 range is not necessary and your pivot strategy should be looking at paying up for stars in gamestacks which do not seem as optimal at first glance as you might think.
Pay Up Studs
Jordan Usher – 7300 – Georgia Tech
Usher and teammate Michael Devoe should smash against Boston College. This game has a lower total compared to the rest of the slate but from an optimal lineup perspective having one of these 7k players who will give you 30+ is a no brainer in my mind.
Other:
- Buddy Boeheim – 8300 – Syracuse
- Jabari Smith – 8300 – Auburn
- Ryan Hawkins – 8100 – Creighton
- Trevion Williams – 7100 – Purdue
- Justin Moore – 7200 – Villanova
- Tari Eason – 8000 – LSU
[spacer height=”20px”]
Middle Range
Isaiah Wong – 6100 – Miami
Much like some other teams on this slate, the Hurricanes are cheaper than I expected. The Orange defensively rank 224th in the country as we know and both teams will play at a good enough pace to likely get this game into the 70’s on both sides. Wong is one of the long distance shooters as well and vs Syracuse that’s always likely to get a boost.
Other:
- Xavier Pinson – 6200 – LSU
- Anthony Polite – 5700 – Florida State
- Tyree Appleby – 5900 – Florida
- Jordan Miller – 5500 – Miami
- Bryce Nze – 6000 – Butler
- Taz Sherman – 6800 – West Virginia … Taz along with the entire WVU squad has completely died and they are reeling but still a slight home favorite. Due factor? Yeah, Due factor should come into play, that’s the ticket. Look for Taz to finally break out of his slump along with the rest of the Mountaineers as this is a sneaky over game.
- Jermaine Couisnard – 6500 – South Carolina
[spacer height=”20px”]
Sub 5500 Value
RayQuan Evans – 4600 – Florida State
I will be shocked if the ‘Noles are not good chalk today. If they were on the road then I would consider a fade but not here at home vs NC State. Evans plays nearly 30 minutes, has a 22%+ usage rate and is averaging 22+ FPPG over the last month. He is 4600 against the 250th ranked defense in the country. Just eat it and go.
Caleb Mills – expected back for FSU – $5000
Other:
- KD Johnson – 4800 – Auburn
- Bourama Sidibe – 4800 – Syracuse
- Tyrese Samuel – 4100 – Seton Hall
- Ian Schieffelin – $4200 – Clemson … Producing in the 4x range, rebounds well and is getting 25+ minutes per game lately. Could be impacted by Senior Day stuff though. so this is one where we want to monitor Hunter Tyson or Naz Bohannon getting spot starts.
- Jalen Warley – 3600, and Wyatt Wilkes – 3200 – Florida State
[spacer height=”20px”]
Miami at Syracuse
One of the high totals on this slate should garner a good amount of valid chalk too. The prices on a couple of the Miami players is just bad pricing considering the opponent.
- MIA: Isaiah Wong, Jordan Miller
- SYR: Buddy Boeheim, Jimmy Boeheim
N.C. State at Florida State
The Seminoles injury woes continue as CamRon Fletcher is OUT and we have essentially an entire squad of sub 6k players who are going to get enough minutes to warrant consideration vs a poor NC State defense.
- NC State: Terquavion Smith
- FSU: RayQuan Evans, Wyatt Wilkes, Anthony Polite
Alabama at LSU
This is one contrarian spot today
I expect some fireworks. Pinson is going to terrorize Alabama for the Tigers, while Tari Eason makes a nice pay up stud to correlate in a full game stack. Bama will need something inside so Charles Bediako is of interest but really this is a downtown game from Shackelford and/or Ellis. Good contrarian stack.
- ALA: Jaden Shackelford, Charles Bediako
- LSU: Xavier Pinson, Tari Eason, Mwani Wilkinson (Value)
Boston College at Georgia Tech
This is another contrarian spot
Love Jordan Usher and can make a case for fellow Senior Michael Devoe as well, but either way the Yellow Jackets are in a great spot to not only cover this -3 but also provide a star out of this lineup
- BC: Makai Ashton-Langford, James Karnik
- GT: Jordan Usher, Dallan Coleman (Value)
TCU at WVU
2% owned game, if that…
WVU has given up 70 or more points in each of their last 8 games, allowing 80+ in two of the last three as well. When these teams met a couple weeks back it was a 144 point total and the way things are trending it likely will go over again. But really this is about believing WVU will end a losing streak on the back of Taz Sherman and Sean McNeil, two seniors who will try to go out on a high note.
- TCU: Mike Miles, Emanuel Miller
- WVU: Taz Sherman, Sean McNeil
[spacer height=”20px”]
Jordan Usher – Georgia Tech
[spacer height=”20px”]
TOP BETS
Georgia Tech -3
West Virginia -2
LSU -3 (if you can get this down to 1.5 or 2.5 do it)
South Carolina/Auburn OVER 146
Virginia Tech/Clemson UNDER 134.5
[spacer height=”20px”]