The Dongers Club – April 11th (Early)

← The Dongers Club hub  ·  Daily MLB home run picks & DFS, since August 2020. Browse the archive or see how DCPA works.

WEATHER All four games should play without issue but we have one which is worth of monitoring. Pirates @ Cardinals – A divisional game so they could say screw this, let’s play one more double header later in the season or they could just play through some rain or wait things out to when it clears up later this evening.  I would highly anticipate that they decide to wait things out and get the game in.  St. Louis is home tomorrow and Pittsburgh is back at home vs the Cubs for their Home Opener. The Rangers are back home and with some rain potential they could have the roof closed which would help the pitchers out there. Baltimore is also home for the first time this season and the new configuration out in Left Field.  As karma would have it, the wind is blowing out 10+ mph to left field [spacer height=”20px”] I am not fond of writing up slates with fewer than 5 games on them and usually avoid slates with fewer than four games on them.  But in general when we have a 4 gamer I will go down the process of focusing my attention on one game for pitching, another for offense and then the other two games for secondary one offs.  It doesn’t always setup like that obviously but the key for a short slate is to not over think things and many times like today you really aren’t investing in a team for them to score 8 or 9 runs as much as you want to just make sure you get something. Such is the case with four games that I would recommend betting the UNDER on today despite what appears to be less than attractive pitching options and some higher totals. Milwaukee at Baltimore … This is likely the most popular hitting game as even with the new left field design for Camden Yards, it is still the best park on this slate by a mile.  Milwaukee is overrated and Adrian Houser is good vs RHB so he will gain a good amount of ownership, which makes the Orioles a logical leverage play given that to me they are equal offensively to Milwaukee.  Plus with the Orioles starting LHP Bruce Zimmerman it plays even more into their favor.  Unfortunately for the Orioles it’s only Cedric Mullins, Anthony Santander and Rougned Odor who are the…...

Keep reading — and get the full war room.

The rest of this breakdown is for members. A subscription unlocks the entire Daily Ambush platform:

  • Command Center — your entire slate on one screen
  • Tier-graded stacks (A/B/C) with heatmap and pair analysis
  • Ambush Intel — named AI agents tracking live P/L, every sport
  • Batter vs. pitcher pitch arsenals, xwOBA splits, BvP history
  • Lineup optimizer with pro stack rules and exposure controls
  • SIM Matrix — Monte Carlo simulation engine

View Membership Options Already a member? Log in