I smell a no hitter coming. Might not be today, but one is coming.
Happy Easter. Just the article for the MAIN Sunday slate and likely no notes for the afternoon slate or the showdown in Discord today but I really like the Padres tonight on SNB. Now for the question you have all been waiting for.
Do we have Site Synchronicity on a Sunday? The odds are low with Texas and Colorado both having home games, and the answer is.
But in a shocking plot twist, it’s FanDuel who has the Angels-Rangers game and not DraftKings.
WEATHER
Cold games today and the Tigers vs Royals is a PPD Risk, avoid it at all costs.
We should see the roof open in Miami, closed in Toronto and closed in Milwaukee and open in Texas (FD).
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When I start my slate analysis I look at the games before I check my model. Today I went through, found my 4 guys and then clicked over to the model and said alright model, whatcha got….
And it gave me the exact same four guys. Shocking, considering I wrote the algo in the model…
ALEK MANOAH
Unlike Wheeler, he has been pitching through the Spring and made a full strength start facing 23 batters with 7 K over 6 innings, so he should be slightly ahead of Wheeler still today and the heavy portion of the A’s lineup is RHH which hit .285 xSLG off Manoah last year.
ZACK WHEELER
Wheeler faced 19 batters in his debut vs the Mets and simply has to pitch well around his sins to Jesus Aguilar today and he’ll finish in the upper 17-19 DK FPTS range without even breaking a sweat.
NESTOR CORTES
A lot is being made already about Camden Yards not giving up HR with the wall change and I would like to remind you that it’s the middle of April and they are in Baltimore, Maryland. Of course the ball isnt flying out of there every single game, not to mention the Yankees and Brewers aren’t what people think they could be.
Either way though, the park is definitely better for LHP now and with the cold weather and the Orioles lineup we can look at Cortes for 5+ IP and potentially a 7 K game. The O’s are looking to take more pitches this year but his command should be on. Not confident he wins though.
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The 4th guy I identified was Alex Wood, but there are too many RH batts in the Guardians lineup for me to trust him today. 6 innings, maybe 2 strikeouts and a clean game isn’t bad, but the line is long ahead of him, so I won’t go there.
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The best environments for offense today are South Beach on a Sunday (that can’t be good), Toronto and Milwaukee. So where do you think we should go?
TORONTO
Springer, Vlad Jr, Lourdes Gurriel.
Vlad off, Vlad on, Vlad off, Vlad on. He homer. He no homer. He homer. He no homer. Yesterday was a no homer day. Today …
MILWAUKEE
Wong, Yelich, Tellez, Narvaez
Sure as hell not to the entire Brewers lineup after that mistake last night but Yelich is going to be back in the lineup, Rowdy Tellez should be in the lineup and Mr. Sunday Omar Narvaez should also be in vs sinker baller Dakota Hudson.
NY METS
McNeil, Lindor, Alonso, Cano
Per the Dongers Club Manifesto, you should always bet Citi Field overs on Sunday’s. It’s going to be mid 40’s with the winds blowing in at 17 mph and this jack off wants you to bet the over 8???? Look, Humberto Castellanos doesn’t strike ANYONE out and the Diamondbacks are NOT taking two in a row vs the Mets on Tom Seaver Way in Queens. Starling Marte is too expensive on DK now but still okay to use on FD.
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VALUE STACK: Nationals
C.Hernandez, Cruz, Bell, Y.Hernandez
Cheap set of guys in a split which favors them (Quintana cant pitch well again) and would slide into a build that is anchored by Wheeler and Manoah.
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CATCHERS
To those who wisely go ahead and just take Manoah-Wheeler and move on, this is your next button to click and it’s finding the cheapest catcher on the board and plugging them in.
- Zack Collins
- Omar Narvaez
- Roberto Perez
FIRST BASE
This is very very hard today. We of course have the Jesus Aguilar on Easter Sunday narrative, plus Vladdy G honestly being the top overall play, but then there is Brandon Belt in Cleveland vs RHP Aaron Civale, who I would honestly start my lineups with if doing one entry, second entry is full Jays stack, third is attesting for your sins with Jesus Aguilar.
- Brandon Belt
- Vlad Guerrero Jr.
- Jesus Aguilar …
SECOND BASE
I was down on Brandon Lowe coming into the season just because I didn’t expect him to replicate things from a year ago, but he’s still a big power bat and on a quiet slate one swing vs Vinnie Velasquez is all we need.
- Brandon Lowe
- Kolten Wong
- Jeff McNeil
THIRD BASE
Weakest position on the slate.
- Nolan Arenado
- KeBryan Hayes
- DJ LeMahieu
SHORTSTOP
- Carlos Correa
- Bo Bichette
- Brandon Crawford
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
Not sure how one doesn’t play Lourdes on Easter, but Lourdes help them. And I know people who doubt Nick Castellanos pride themselves as men of faith and all, but Castellanos is 5600 on a Sunday in South beach? Something is fishy here. Ah, yes. Maybe it’s the fact that out of everyone, Castellanos would know how to handle South Beach.
- George Springer Dinger
- Lourdes Gurriel
- Nick Castellanos
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
Aaron Judge is definitely going to be the uber donkey chalk play today. Not in love with it, but mentioning that for your situational awareness because sometimes you have to spell things out instead of typing FYSA.
- Randy Arozarena
- Aaron Judge
- Ketel Marte
OUTFIELD – Value
The cupboard is empty here, we really need some value as the summer is feeling like winter, so what are you going to do. It’s the little things on Sunday’s, but we need to search for that guy who will give us a 3-5 day with 2 runs scored for sub 4k
- Myles Straw
- Max Kepler
- Cavan Biggio
- Ben Gamel
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THE DONGERS CLUB
- Brandon Belt – 1B – San Francisco Giants – Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Omar Narvaez – C – Brewers
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Nick Castellanos – OF – Phillies
- DJ LeMahieu – 3B – Yankees
- Carlos Correa – SS – Twins
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr – OF – Blue Jays
- George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
- Vladdy G – 1B – Blue Jays
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CORE PLAYS
- 3+ Toronto Blue Jays. At home in their dome against a rookie arm with 2 pitches he will trust and potentially some big time command issues.
- Manoah or Wheeler must anchor a lineup, you can get cute on a Sunday with your SP2 as there are a ton of low scoring/bad hitting spots today, but these two are like Rodon and Cease on Friday night. Gotta have one.
- Starting my first lineup with Manoah + Lourdes + Belt
Expected Chalk Offense(s)
- NY Yankees – Don’t love this
- Toronto – Obviously like this
- Boston – Don’t love this at all
Best Low Owned Offense(s)
- Mets, Brewers, Rays
Best Leverage / Pivots
- I think the best play is just fading a bad Yankees team in Cooler Camden yards.
- Marlins Jesus’ vs Wheeler because you are a good human being and would never fade both Jesus’ on Easter Sunday, right??
Favorite Bets
- Under … Under … Under … Pick a game, bet the under, but my favorites are:
- Twins/Red Sox UNDER 9.5
- Giants/Guardians UNDER 7.5
- Yankees/Orioles UNDER 8.5
- And the over
- Diamondbacks/Mets OVER 8.5
- ML Picks
- Orioles +166
- Pirates -107
- I should just stop there.
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