*** ANNOUNCEMENT ***
We are doing the monthly Dongers Club Appreciation contests once again this year and the first one will be this week. It’s going to be combined between Tuesday and Friday this week. For those new, here is how it works.
In the article for Tomorrow (TUE) and Friday there will be a link to a FREE DraftKings Member Only Contest. You simply need to enter and put in a lineup following the rules for this month. The combined scores from both contests will be used and prizes are given out to first, second and third place.
April Prizes:
- First Place – $283 cash + Swag
- Second Place – Swag
- Third Place – 10 Bonus points for the May contest.
Look for the LINK tomorrow.
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Monday, April 25th
Today we have a 7 game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel has just 5 because it appears they decided to fire the person who setup their slates on Saturday for the simple fact that they just couldn’t live with actually doing the right thing. We have zero reason why the games in Milwaukee and Philadelphia need to start early and zero reason why they shouldn’t be a part of the ‘Main’ slate tonight, but hey — that’s FanDuel for ya.
So yes, the San Francisco Giants are playing a one day road trip in Milwaukee tonight as part of this updated schedule, it’s not a full series and they are in and out to finish up their long road trip.
WEATHER
There should be no issues with the 7 games playing today, but we have some roof situations to monitor
- Toronto – Roof will be closed due to the fact that it’s A: Raining and B: Toronto in April.
- Milwaukee – Roof should be closed
- Texas – Roof could be open here, really is 50/50
- Arizona – Roof should be open – good for hitting
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There’s a Mt. Rushmore of ‘Names’ today with Burnes, Bieber, Scherzer and Buehler being the four top end arms whom three of which come into tonight’s starts off back to back good outings. The one who isn’t is Buehler and that was a game we didn’t touch him in his last start but I would expect he pitches VERY well in a stadium he has always seemed to be annoyed with the opposing team in. With these four plus another couple sneaky options it sets up to be a slate where you cannot win without your two pitchers both topping 20+ DK fantasy points.
CORBIN BURNES
Burnes is almost in an exact replica situation from Scherzer right now in what we can expect out of him. The opponent is not terrible and the Giants have good LHB, but he is not one who cares about your splits and with San Francisco being on such a terrible travel schedule and even having some COVID scares yesterday I really have a hard time seeing any scenario where they don’t make Burnes the #1 SP today.
MAX SCHERZER
As mentioned, Max’s form looks ready for prime Max and being in Big Busch Stadium with sub 60 degree temps will help keep the ball in the park and any risk is very much mitigated tonight for Scherzer.
KYLE GIBSON
With the top two guys being so clear cut and there being a C (Buehler) and D (Bieber) option, we are left wondering if we might be overlooking someone who can sneak up and shine tonight for less $ and Gibson is the best of the options. He has generally fared better against RH batters with more upside when he gets a heavy RH lineup, a scenario that Colorado likely obliges with today and so for his $6,800 price Gibson should deliver his usual 90~ pitches but I think being back in Philly he’ll generate a CSW% back up in the 30-40% range like he started the season with instead of the low 20% rate vs Colorado in their last outing in Coors.
Gibson can get you 20, he just can’t get you 30 because of the Charlie Blackmon 2 run HR in the 6th
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Not using but do not hate.
Walker Buehler – I believe he will have his best start of the season and when he is locked in he is someone who can register 10 punch outs but Arizona’s still taking pitches and Buehler isn’t someone you should load up on ahead of Burnes and Max for a main lineup tonight.
Shane Bieber – Very similar scenario as Walker and I just don’t see the risk in going Bieber in one of the better hitting environments tonight.
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RED SOX
Rafael Devers, Trevor Story, JD Martinez
Rafael Devers should be $5,900 not $4,500 on DraftKings. He murders everything that Berrios is going to throw him today and with the roof closed in Toronto this park is one of the two best ones on the slate. We want Devers, we want JD Martinez and Trevor Story is quietly waking up right now.
DODGERS
Trea Turner, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, Cody Bellinger
And now we dip into the Dongers Club Mailbag, as J.H. from the state that is shaped like a J writes … “Didn’t we use Merrill my first name should be my last name and my last name should be my first name Kelly against the Dodgers last year”?
Why Yes, J.H. from the Garden State we did and he dominated with 12 strikeouts back on May 20th, 2021 in L.A. However, you might recall that we did not use MK again vs LAD in the next three starts and heck no we are not using him tonight with the roof open in Chase Field.
ASTROS
Alvarez, Gurriel, Tucker, Goodrum
I believe in Yordan breaking out of his slump, he is crushing the ball and is feeling fine right now — just not getting good luck. The rest of the guys behind him are fairly cheap and should do well vs Dane Dunning and get a nice boost w/ an open Roof if thats the case.
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FADES
Philadelphia Phillies
Kyle Freeland is generally better away from Coors (obviously) and when he is on his Ground Ball rates sky rocket allowing him to sustain low pitch innings and give the Rockies 6 strong. After Kyle Schwarber’s tirade last night and these two pitchers tonight the entire infield area at Citizen’s Bank Park right in front of home plate might need to be replaced with the dents in it. This game is a fade for me tonight as I trust we get the good Freeeeeeeland and if not for so many high K% pitchers going we would be using him as leverage. Instead, just Phade the Phils.
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CATCHER
- Will Smith – Road catchers in Chase has been on fire this year and they don’t make many better than Will Smith.
- Max Stassi
FIRST BASE
- Freddie Freeman – Mr. Freeman has long mentioned how much he loves the Batters Eye in Chase Field.
- Keston Hiura
- Christian Walker
SECOND BASE
- Trevor Story
- Robinson Cano
- Gavin Lux
THIRD BASE
- Raffy Devers
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
Turner or bust and Turner vs Mookie is a tough pay up decision on the LAD but I am liking the sneaky value here today.
- Trea Turner
- Andres Gimenez
- Niko Goodrum
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Cody Bellinger
- Mookie Betts
- JD Martinez
- Yordan Alvarez … “But He is 1-19 since he hit 2 HR back on Monday, April 18th!). Trust me … I’ve seen it before, it happens all the time. You’re closing the door, you leave the world behind. You’re digging for gold, you’re throwing away. A fortune in feelings, but someday you’ll pay and I’m willing to sacrifice the Dongers Club with a back to back Chairman Nomination today for Mr. Alvarez.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Charlie Blackmon
- Shohei Ohtani
- Miles Straw
OUTFIELD – Value
- Alex Verdugo
- Tyrone Taylor
- Michael Brantley
- Josh Naylor
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- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros – Chairman of The Dongers Club – Again!
- Robinson Cano – 2B – Mets
- Cody Bellinger – OF – Dodgers
- Will Smith – C – Dodgers
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
- Niko Goodrum – SS – Astros
- Shohei Ohtani – OF – Angels
- BONUS ……………. Charlie Blackmon – OF – Rockies
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CORE PLAYS
Pay up for Burnes or Max on main lineup, preferably Burnes paired with Gibson on primary build.
Favorite Hitters: Devers, Alvarez, Bellinger
Expected Chalk
Phillies – 100% fade
Dodgers
Best Low Owned Offense(s)
Red Sox, Blue Jays
Best Leverage / Pivots
Just play the under in Colorado vs Philly
Favorite Bets
The over in Colo… just kidding, curious if I could catch you sleeping.
Giants/Brewers UNDER 7
Rockies/Phils UNDER 8.5
Dodgers/Dbacks OVER 8.5
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