Tonight is contest 2 of 2 for the April Dongers Club Appreciation Tournament, and the link for entry is listed below. Winner(s) will be announced in tomorrow’s article.
https://www.draftkings.com/draft/contest/126285160
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Friday, April 29th
I am going to be making a slight tweak to the article format, likely starting tomorrow. It’s a very minor tweak and honestly you might not even notice it too much but it’s going to be intended to help with putting you on the right path nightly for hitting while the balls remain dead around the league.
Some believe that all of the sudden the warm weather over the next 10 weeks is going to flip the switch, but a dead ball is a dead ball and I think there’s definitely a process change in how you start a lineup most nights for those of us who are not just clicking Stack Team 1 + Stack Team 2 into 100+ lineups and letting it run like the slot machine DFS players thinking they are smart.
So, hopefully you enjoy the tweak – which I did decide to throw in today.
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WEATHER
13 game Main slates tonight as two games start just before the 7:05 lock. Of the games which are on the main slate all should play with only the Yankees-Royals having some potential delays but that is the Apple+ TV game tonight and I am certain they will get it in.
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After a very long string of pretty clear cut pitching slates tonight’s gets a little bit off the rails. The Orioles have called up one of their young pitching prospects in Kyle Bradish, who profiles to be a pretty good RHP down the line for them but I must stick to our never a rookie SP rule and despite him being $4,000 and a temptation to use, there’s really zero reason to need that.
“Oh, we have a Coors slate, I gotta use him to pay up for bats” … said the worst analysis ever. No, everyone in Coors not only sucks at Baseball but is practically free, so you do not need a guy who has a 3 inning ceiling.
ADAM WAINWRIGHT
You should not have any concerns about Waino’s last start in Cincinnati – a place where he has always struggled and did last Sunday afternoon. Back in his pitcher friendly stadium at home Waino is getting a lineup which is just not that good in Arizona and this is a slate which isn’t top heavy with 30+ point potential players so Waino in a 17-25 range is very strong on our list tonight.
ALEX WOOD
Alex Wood has improved very well against RHB and the Nationals outside of Soto should have a RH heavy lineup today which might draw some off of Wood. Not us. Like Waino I like the environment, the weak opponent and the Giants are a sure thing to give him run support tonight IMO.
HUNTER GREENE
Yes, he is pitching in Coors Field tonight and has long been due for a blow up game in his rookie season. But if you are going to pivot off what I consider to be the crafty safe plays above you better do it with some upside attached. I will be fading Giolito, Cortes and Nola and will not touch Thor on the road in Chicago. So we land with Hunter Greene who last time I checked just throws straight fire by the batters and if they can’t hit it then the altitude can’t help it.
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Welcome to the new section, which might stay for the whole season or might just stay for a few days, who knows. But I am adding this section because of what I have seen over the first few weeks of this season in regards to how offense is performing and how DFS lineups are constructed.
The fact that always trying to build around a stack is not an automatic way to play DFS in my mind has remained a hill which I will continue to believe I am correctly on top of. If you are building out many lineups (and by many I mean really anything above 5) then yeah you should be just stacking out your 3rd/4th/5th/50th lineup builds because This means you are chasing some multi-entry prize pools and honestly there is nothing wrong with that, nor is there anything wrong with building a stack.
Unless of course, you are that person who is in some single entries or is smart to realize you are better served chasing the $250, $400 or $750 contests with one lineup than chasing the $15 or $55 contests with 10 lineups every single night. In which case, building one lineup allows you to focus on key players who you are more confident in and in a smaller contest will still put you near the top without having to worry about the 2% owned stack of the Pirates that some bozo had on a 15 game Tuesday slate in a 19,000 entry field.
It’s not the entry max on tournaments that kills most users, its the size. Smaller is better in this scenario and lets be honest, we can’t control the other scenario where size matters that much so lets just accept it for what it is, okay?
This section is content which has been in my article arguably from time to time, but now we aren’t as much chasing the long ball every day, we are chasing guys who are going to have quality AB based upon recent history, ballpark trends, a specific match-up against a SP or any other varying factor that I might find. This should make your one offs better, your stacks better and hopefully, the results more consistent.
Raffy Devers – 3B – Red Sox
Devers has played 33 career games at Camden Yards, which is second most of any non Fenway Park for him but he has registered more HR here than any other away park.
He has just one HR since April 16th but had two doubles in the series in Toronto and whenever a good power bat is in a slump in regards to homers I always look for them to hit some doubles before jumping on the HR game and the other metrics point to Devers potentially going on a massive HR heater if he can get a little weather help with the dead balls.
In fact, if you check out his last 100 PA xWOBA graph you see that he has basically been trending like the Stock Market only instead of blaming a Russian we have Rob Manfred to blame at most for any downturn here. None the less, Devers is facing a rookie SP for the Orioles making his big league debut and one who has shown lots of promise in the minor leagues and draws some potential Corbin Burnes comparisons — but it takes most pitchers a while to adjust and this isn’t even the Orioles top P prospect, so there will be growing pains and I want to latch on to Devers.
He didn’t make today’s Chairman, but he is the odds on favorite to be Sunday’s Chairman if he keeps up the doubles streak. Buy in on his stock.
Tyler Naquin – OF – Cincinnati Reds
It will feel like donkey chalk night but you will want to find a Reds batter or two and just run with it. There’s lots of one off high priced studs who I think are worth taking shots on and thus the roll out of some cheap (and bad) Reds hitters vs Senzatela makes sense.
There is no easy cheat code with it only being 60 degrees in Coors and a lot will look at Tommy Pham here instead but he is coming off back to back to back series against his former teams and I assure you he has a major let down now. I trust Naquin more assuming he draws the start and dont mind taking 1-2 Reds today.
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This is the section which is going to be tweaked going forward.
TAMPA RAYS
Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco
Did you know that Dylan Bundy made his debut in a COSTCO Warehouse and has never pitched well there? I bet you didn’t. The Rays at home on a Friday in a controlled environment right now is one of the better hitting spots we have. Happy Wander Franco night again and happy Brandon Lowe night too.
RED SOX
Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers
There are tow key bats we want to focus on here. First off Xander Bogaerts is having himself quite the season, which is likely to continue given that he’s essentially playing for a massive contract when he becomes a Free Agent, he is locked in right now. Second, Rafael Devers when he makes contact is putting some pop on the ball and if anyone has a huge weekend in Camden it should be him.
ASTROS vs JAYS
Yusei Kikuchi again? This time I say temper expectations with the Astros. Yes, they should connect off him eventually but he will still get through 4 and maybe 5 tonight for Toronto. But not without some damage vs Yuli Gurriel and his brother does some damage as well.
Meanwhile the player who I want to most take a shot on in this game is Vlad Guerrerro Jr. You can only keep the superstar quiet for so long and he is a terrific one off pay up bat today.
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CATCHER
- Travis d’Arnaud
- Salvador Perez
- Robinson Chirinos
FIRST BASE
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Ji-Man Choi
SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Jonathan Schoop
- Jonathan India
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Josh Donaldson
- Bobby Witt Jr.
SHORTSTOP
Loaded position right now the way most of these guys are playing.
- Wander Franco
- Trea Turner
- Bo Bichette
- Xander Bogaerts
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Shohei Ohtani
- Randy Arozarena
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- JD Martinez
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Yordan Alvarez
- George Springer
- Tyler O’Neill
OUTFIELD – Value
- Tyler Naquin
- Thomas Pham
- Darin Ruf
- Alex Verdugo
- Jackie Bradley Jr … Those who know, know …. okay, he’s a local kid to Camden.
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- Shohei Ohtani – OF – Angels – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Vlad Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays
- Bobby Witt Jr – 3B – Royals
- Wander Franco – SS – Rays
- Randy Arozarena – OF – Rays
- Darin Ruf – OF – Giants
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Travis d’Arnaud – C – Braves
- BONUS ……………….. Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
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Core Plays
Adam Wainwright
Rafael Devers
Wander Franco
Expected Chalk
Reds, Rockies
Yankees
Astros
Best Low Owned Offense(s)
Dodgers – I should probably be higher on them with how the Tigers bullpen is starting to show signs of struggling and when I sit down for an evening drink tonight, I am almost certain I’ll get the vibes to throw in a Dodgers lineup….
Rays
Favorite Bets
Tigers / Dodgers OVER 8
Boston + Tampa ML Parlay
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