The Dongers Club – May 3rd

← The Dongers Club hub  ·  Daily MLB home run picks & DFS, since August 2020. Browse the archive or see how DCPA works.

Here is a sign of the times in Major League Baseball. Minnesota at Baltimore, with an over/under of 7 flat.  You read that correctly friends and no the pitching match-up is not Johan Santana vs Mike Mussina. Simply put, it is what it is at this point. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER Update, the Pirates and Tigers has already been PPD but I refuse to delete what I wrote below…. Two inter-league games which are part of 2-game series which have low risk tonight.  Neither one should have major PPD concerns but both do have return series later in the year where the home team tonight visits the road team to finish up their ‘rivalry’ series. Who decided the Pirates and Tigers is a rivalry?  Was this like the nerdy pimple faced kid who drools and the shy red-head girl at the middle school dance who watched Cleveland/Cincinnati pair-up and then Chicago/Chicago pair-up and Toronto decide for Atlanta (over Pittsburgh) and Milwaukee choose Minnesota leaving these two left staring at each other only to later become the best damn inter-league series every single season? Yes, these are the things which keep me up late at night.  Anyways, we have Pirates-Tigers tonight, rejoice! Oh, the other inter-league game with light rain is White Sox-Cubs. [spacer height=”20px”] JOE RYAN Both pitchers in this game have been going very strong to start the season, but the main difference here is obviously that Bruce Z has to deal with Buxton/Correa and Joe Ryan – who is just dealing right now – has to deal with A Mancini/Mountcastle/Odor heart of the order which he should strike out in a row. BRANDON WOODRUFF The Reds are horrible.  Just fucking terrible.  We can ignore Joey Votto being a Miller Park beast and just calmly take Woodruff at home vs the worst offense in Baseball.  Cincinnati has had something like 2 games this year where they have more than 2 batters get 10+ DraftKings points. Woodruff is coming off a short 4 inning (21 BF) outing but he still struck out 6 and has a near 30% Called-Strike Whiff rate.  A SP game stack with Mahle is of interest here too. JULIO URIAS A season ago we would have not touched a LHP vs the Giants and in this series we definitely wouldn’t have taken the bait of the Dodgers.  But right now this Giants offense is dead to me…...

Keep reading — and get the full war room.

The rest of this breakdown is for members. A subscription unlocks the entire Daily Ambush platform:

  • Command Center — your entire slate on one screen
  • Tier-graded stacks (A/B/C) with heatmap and pair analysis
  • Ambush Intel — named AI agents tracking live P/L, every sport
  • Batter vs. pitcher pitch arsenals, xwOBA splits, BvP history
  • Lineup optimizer with pro stack rules and exposure controls
  • SIM Matrix — Monte Carlo simulation engine

View Membership Options Already a member? Log in