A nice random Tuesday to close out May, which was a good solid month and we finish up the 3rd day of the Dongers Club Appreciation Contest. Before we get to the standings for tonight, let’s cover the rules for this contest entry. Pay close attention because you could easily nullify your entry if you don’t make sure the lineup going into this contest follows the rules.
May 31st Rules: ISO Tuesday. Every player in your lineup (pitchers included) must be a one off from a different GAME. This means you cannot have 2 players from the same team or the same game. So you cannot have say Bryan Reynolds and Freddie Freeman in the same lineup. If you think this is challenging then once again — to bad. Honestly, just click game by game pick a guy and move on. It’s really not that hard as we have 13 games on this slate and you have to pick just 10 players.
The BONUS for tonight is a big one. It is somewhat similar to last Tuesday’s CHUG rule, except tonight you must be the ONLY person in the contest with the player to get a bonus. If they hit a HR, you get +14 for each HR hit. Last week, only one person had Joc and he hit 3 homers. So pick your one offs wisely. Here are the standings going into tonight, the bonus can change lots of things but as of right now, SKG1000 is running away with things.
[spacer height=”20px”]
WEATHER
Two games have a little bit of rain but I anticipate both WILL play. Even if we lose both we still have 11 games so the rules will apply.
Brewers at Cubs – Light Rain
Marlins at Rockies – Light Rain — UPDATE PPD
Extremely hot in Camden Yards, so we put the new wall to the ultimate test.
[spacer height=”20px”]
KEVIN GAUSMAN
DK: $9,700, FD: $10,200
Gausman will be back at home and he is getting the lowly and banged up White Sox offense. A few more LH bats will be here but Gausman is striking them out at a near 27% clip and is likely go go over 30 DK fantasy points in a strong start tonight.
Torontno is also a stadium which continues to play towards unders with the new Baseball + Humidor combination in effect there. This is a game in which Lucas Giolito is likely to match Gausman and is a fine SP2 to pay up for a premium SP stack.
GERMAN MARQUEZ
DK: $6,300, FD: $6,700
Chilly in Coors and a spot where the Marlins as a franchise in my memory seem to always struggle to put up big games despite the park shift. Marquez isn’t going to be anywhere near the Gausman tier but for $6,300 he is likely to give you a 3x return upside.
That is it… That is my SP pairing tonight. 100% locked in on those two.
Damn. Marquez PPD. This SP2 slate got rough unless you pay for Giolito or Javier. The longshot SP2’s tonight for me include
Ryan Yarbrough
Justin Steele … K Upside
Michael Wacha … Fuck it button
[spacer height=”20px”]
OTHER SP THOUGHTS
Eric Lauer will miss enough Cubs bats to still give him a respectable score. He does not beat out Gausman.
Michael Wacha could put up a good score tonight although the Reds have started to hit better of late as they focus on trying to hit line drives and making contact. He’s really in a no mans land price wise so I wouldn’t bother taking this risk.
George Kirby probably gathers too much ownership since he is facing Baltimore. Hard pass on the young kid tonight.
Martin Perez, meet regression. Regression, meet Martin Perez.
Edward Cabrera has a plus Slider and enough stuff in his arsenal to be a viable pitcher. Throw in the history of the Marlins organization with young pitchers and I am definitely expecting him to pitch decently even in Coors. At $5,400 he can probably get you a 12-14 point outing which isn’t horrible but I have rules on rookie pitchers and thus I will stick by my fade.
[spacer height=”20px”]
HIT TOWARDS THE WAREHOUSE
Seattle Mariners and the Camden Yards Warehouse
Jesse Winker, JP Crawford, Ty France, Kyle Lewis
I will buy into the extreme heat in Baltimore and the added benefit here is that the Mariners are strong from the left side of the plate to do damage in Camden’s new configuration. One thing of note is that Baltimore’s bullpen is not horrific mostly just in games when they’re able to use their primary configuration — which they did last night. So tonight we can get the bad Orioles pen and some late inning added sauce.
WHO WANTS A WHOOPIN NEXT?
NY METS vs NATIONALS
WSH: Ruiz, Soto, Cruz, Bell
NYM: Alonso, Canha, Escobar
The Mets seem to be dropping a can of whoop ass every time they face the Nationals and next up is long time Mets whooping boy Patrick Corbin. While the Nationals are very sneaky tonight against Trevor Williams.
This game has a high dew point factor as most of the north east, sans Boston weirdly, has extreme temps and humidity today. I always believe that a RH batter will homer off Williams in his bad games and thus I see Nelson Cruz jacking one out at 1% ownership tonight.
Don’t sleep on the Nats.
THE ROOF
Chase Field Roof Open Again
Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, David Peralta, Ketel Marte
With the roof open again and struggling Humberto Castellanos vs struggling Charlie Morton on the mound we have a must own spot out in the desert. I prefer the Atlanta side and Ozuna-Olson-Albies-Contreras is a stack which can fit in with Gausman.
For Arizona, the LHB have hit the ball hard off Morton but they also strike out more, so Peralta and Marte being the lowest K% players on this team are the most likely ones to have big hits and both are hitting the ball very well right now.
[spacer height=”20px”]
CATCHER
- Ca Raleigh
- William Contreras … Road catcher in chase and a solid .274 xISO DCPA
- Keibert Ruiz
FIRST BASE
Very deep position tonight with Goldy/Alonso being in big parks but good weather and facing LHP they should smash. If you don’t have enough money don’t force in spending here, because it is a very deep position.
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Pete Alonso
- Josh Bell
- Matt Olson
SECOND BASE
- Adam Frazier
- Tony Kemp – $2500 value on DK
- Ketel Marte
- Brandon Drury
THIRD BASE
- Eduardo Escobar
- Austin Riley
- Manny Machado
SHORTSTOP
- JP Crawford
- Wander Franco
- Javier Baez
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Jesse Winker
- Nelson Cruz
- Cedric Mullins
- Mark Canha
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Aaron Judge
- Bryan Reynolds
- Juan Soto
- Marcell Ozuna
OUTFIELD – Value
- Nick Senzel
- Kyle Lewis
- Dylan Moore
- David Peralta
[spacer height=”20px”]
- Jesse Winker – OF – Mariners – Chairman of The Double Dongers Club
- Nelson Cruz – OF – Nationals
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
- William Contreras – C – Braves
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Eduardo Escobar – 3B – Mets
- Brandon Drury – 2B – Reds
- JP Crawford – SS – Mariners
- BONUS ………….. Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
[spacer height=”20px”]
CORE BUILD
While the Nationals jump out to me as a strong contrarian spot it’s all or nothing with that offense. My core build tonight features Camden Exposure, Chase Field Exposure + Kevin Gausman
Kevin Gausman
Jesse Winker
Ketel Marte
[spacer height=”20px”]
BETTING PLAYS
Orioles/Mariners OVER 9
Braves ML
Phillies ML (Turbo Slate)
[spacer height=”20px”]